Super Rugby final: Chiefs - Sharks in Hamilton (04/08/2012)

[blue b]

id be a cheetah fan, love how they play... still can't figure out how with a coach like naka :?

then a shark or lion... then i'd rather suck my left nut before supporting either stormers or bulls...

Are you bragging now with your one nut? I also like the way the cheetahs play, ... but I prefer rugby!

 

[Dizzy]

Are you bragging now with your one nut? I also like the way the cheetahs play, ... but I prefer rugby!

Yet you support the Bulls? lol

Anyway,...
I've supported the South Africans in Black all season, and I don't think I should change my stance now even though there is a New Zealand squad in the final... So I'm putting my vcash on the Sharks under 7..

 

[Darwin]

first.

go chiefs!

I'd pick:

1, Toby Smith
2, Hika Elliot
3, Tameafuna
4, Clark
5, Retalick
6, Messam
7, Latimer
8, Thomson
9, Barlow
10, Cruden
11, Tiko
12, SBW
13, Horrell
14, Masanga
15, Robinson

16, Sona
17, Mo
18, Fitzgerald
19, Cane
20, Leonard
21, Willison
22, Nanai

You would think that Renee would stick to the same team but he's been making changes every week, sometimes more than a few

Not far off the team I would pick. I'm a big fan of Toby Smith, but I think Taumalolo more than justified his spot in the starting XV last weekend, generally holding his own against the Crusaders scrum (and scoring yet another try!). It is really a 50:50 call though, so would be happy either way. I would definitely stick with Afeaki on the bench - though he wasn't that impressive when he came on last weekend, the Chiefs scrum still looked a lot better with him at TH than they did with Smith at TH against the Canes! Elliot v Schwalger is another 50:50 call too in my opinion - I'd probably stick with Schwalger due to his greater experience and scrummaging ability (though would be happy with Elliot starting). Clarke is apparently in doubt his week, and he would be a massive loss if he was ruled out. Again I'd start Cane against the physical Sharks pack, but I'd expect they will stick with Latimer at 7.

I'm sligtly undecided what I would do with the backline - in particular where I would start Horrell. I think he is best suited to fullback, but he has been solid at centre, and Robinson did some good things at fullback last weekend. I'm usually very harsh on Robinson - not because I don't like the guy, but rather that I don't think he has lived anywhere near up to his potential. He was phenomenal at the U20 World Champs a couple of seasons ago - I thought he was easily the player of the tournament (much better than Cruden who took home the official award). He was a major disappointment for the Highlanders, but has really started to find his feet at this level this season, due to a combination of factors (experience, concentrating on one position, having a coach that knows him well and backs him...). I still think he has a long way to go in some areas, and I'm not sure whether I would start him in a crunch match like this - I fear if I start believing he is finally delivering on his potential he will disappoint me and start playing poorly again! I'd probably opt for Willison at centre, Nanai-Williams and Masaga on the wings, and Horrell at fullback, but I wouldn't be completely against the idea of Robinson at fullback (which we are sure to see). I'm just hoping that Masaga starts on the wing, as he is wasted on the bench!

 

[Larksea]

yip

1, 2, 7, 11, 13, 15

all basically 50/50 calls for selection.

I'm not sure if it's because of depth or the selections being really inconsistent in those positions. I would have hoped the chiefs coaches would have settled on who their best lineup was so far but it seems they have not.

kahui being injured obviously threw a spanner in the works, before that he was obviously the clear choice at 13 and Horrell at 15.

Robinson is a tough one, right now I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that he may be the best counter attacking 15 in NZ right now. But I dont think he's the most reliable 15 in NZ in terms of defense. Though he has at least been pretty dam good under the high ball.

Sona did justify his selection last week with a very fired up performance but I still don't think think he's as good in the scrum or tight as Toby Smith. And it's not easy for a player to produce that type of fired up performance two weeks in a row.

one of the main reasons I'd pick Smith and Elliot is because they are fresh, was a pretty brutal game last weekend. But it would be a tough call. I expect the team to be closer to what last weeks team was. But again, chiefs have not really settled on a week in week out lineup yet and I don't expect that to happen all of a sudden.

comes down to fresh legs vs. minimizing disruption from changes.

I just hope Renee is not to shy to actually use his bench. Guys like Leonard, Masaga and Willison are too good to leave unused after 80min and have shown that they can at least maintain the performance and often improve it with their injection.

 

[admartian]

yip

1, 2, 7, 11, 13, 15

all basically 50/50 calls for selection.

I'm not sure if it's because of depth or the selections being really inconsistent in those positions. I would have hoped the chiefs coaches would have settled on who their best lineup was so far but it seems they have not.

kahui being injured obviously threw a spanner in the works, before that he was obviously the clear choice at 13 and Horrell at 15.

Robinson is a tough one, right now I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that he may be the best counter attacking 15 in NZ right now. But I dont think he's the most reliable 15 in NZ in terms of defense. Though he has at least been pretty dam good under the high ball.

Sona did justify his selection last week with a very fired up performance but I still don't think think he's as good in the scrum or tight as Toby Smith. And it's not easy for a player to produce that type of fired up performance two weeks in a row.

one of the main reasons I'd pick Smith and Elliot is because they are fresh, was a pretty brutal game last weekend. But it would be a tough call. I expect the team to be closer to what last weeks team was. But again, chiefs have not really settled on a week in week out lineup yet and I don't expect that to happen all of a sudden.

comes down to fresh legs vs. minimizing disruption from changes.

I just hope Renee is not to shy to actually use his bench. Guys like Leonard, Masaga and Willison are too good to leave unused after 80min and have shown that they can at least maintain the performance and often improve it with their injection.

I agree -especially Masaga. A couple of times there that Tikorotuma wasn't getting anywhere that they could've used Masaga coming on at least.

Would definitely like to see Messam keep his place in the AB squad too.

 

[donmcdazzle]

Well if Cruden can have a good game the chiefs should win, started ok last game but didn't really feature for the rest of it apart from his defensive laps that let Crotty in for a try

all down to the Forwards really, Cruden is only going to have an impact if the forwards get quick ball. He hardly comes into first receiver unless he has time and space.

I usually strongly dislike the term "hater", but you Larksea are a real Cruden hater. No matter what he does you will find some way to downplay the good things he does and highlight in the mistakes he makes. It's comical that you used to do the exact opposite with Stephen Donald, a far more inferior player.

I'm not even sure you are aware you are doing it. E.g. You commented that Carter had a good goalkicking performance against the Chiefs in the semi, ignoring that he missed one relatively straight forward 48m (at most) kick towards the end. If that was Cruden you would have pointed out that he lacks range with his goal kicking and highlighted the missed 48m effort as an example rather than paying attention to the ones he got over like you did with Carter.

 

[Gena_ZA]

okay I want the Sharks to win but that aside, this is still a rugby discussion

Me as coach would definitely put Horrell at 13, he has better hands and vision than Robinson and would be able to run off SBW better.
The Chiefs need to win this with attack and not defense hence Robinson at fullback would suit this gameplan
Masanga on the wing, there is now doubt that he should start


I would start Cane in place of Latimer with the words to use his speeds and energy flat out for 60 minutes and then bring the bigger guy on.
You need to throw all at the Sharks or they will kill you at the breakdown in the first 40 minutes
So, I am with Larksea on his choices

 

[nickdnz]

In terms of loosehead prop, I don't think I've ever seen Taumololo not have a blinder in a big game (NZ v Tonga, NZ v France, Chiefs v Crusaders), so I think based on that merit alone I'd pick him over Smith.

Also agree with the call to put Masaga in the starting 22. What ever he's done to not get a starting spot, I have no idea. Clearly the best attacking wing the Chiefs have. Also happy with Robbie Robinson at fullback. Starting to look like the player he looked like in 2009 (agree with Darwin he was player of tournament). Great hard running, acceleration and agility. But the risk is more to do with decision making than anything else.

 

[Larksea]

I usually strongly dislike the term "hater", but you Larksea are a real Cruden hater. No matter what he does you will find some way to downplay the good things he does and highlight in the mistakes he makes. It's comical that you used to do the exact opposite with Stephen Donald, a far more inferior player.

I'm not even sure you are aware you are doing it. E.g. You commented that Carter had a good goal kicking performance against the Chiefs in the semi, ignoring that he missed one relatively straight forward 48m (at most) kick towards the end. If that was Cruden you would have pointed out that he lacks range with his goal kicking and highlighted the missed 48m effort as an example rather than paying attention to the ones he got over like you did with Carter.

I'm not a Cruden hater. I am an Andy Elis hater but I will still admit when he's playing well

Cruden like all players has strengths and weaknesses, I don't believe I ever really say a player is bad or great outwright but I will highlight what I think their strengths and weaknesses are. No Doubt He has some impressive strengths as a ball carrier and offloads and director of the game but unlike many people I won't ignore what I see as his weaknesses. Defense is clearly one of them. From close range penalties and conversions he's one of the best in super rugby but his range I believe is not great. He was kicking well over 80% early to mid season but since then he's been asked to take more and more long range shots and overall his percentage has dropped down to what about 75-76% overall? Still very good, just not walking on water like he was early season when a lot of his kicks were close range and he was kicking 90%.

Yes I saw carter missed one you would expect him to get but he also kicked a couple of others that were pretty tough.

Overall I find Cruden to be really interesting and quite unique, sticks out when you look at his stats with the chiefs. He takes the ball at first receiver the least of any other 10 in the comp as a percentage of plays and when he does get it he then passes the least as a percentage. yet he has one of the highest offload stats in the comp and he creates a LOT of tries. To me that kinda draws a picture, what he does is sit back watch and wait for the players in front of him to create an opportunity/overlap/gap on attack and when he sees it - he comes in and basically runs the ball then offloads and magic happens.

Also his monopoly on the chiefs 10 jersey is interesting. We've got all the way to the final and as far as I know no other chief player has had a shot at goal this season. I look at previous seasons where Basically Donald did a lot of the crash ball and picked up injuries on a semi regular basis where this year that work has all been done by SBW and Cruden has been kept pretty fresh. Strange that even now we don't know who the backup 10 is at the chiefs maybe it's Horrell? Maybe it's Robinson?

overall, just because I don't think Cruden is God it does not mean I hate the guy I'm just not ignoring his weaknesses because of his obvious and in many ways dominant strengths. At the same time I do really admire the way the whole chiefs game plan operates around using his strengths and protecting his weaknesses. It's obvious I think that Dave Renee sat down and said "Right! Cruden is our main man - lets build our entire game plan around him and protect him so he can survive all season" It also helps that the 2012 chiefs forward pack I think is the best in the franchises history and for maybe the first time ever the chiefs have a world class 12 (a long time weak position for the chiefs). Having a gifted 10 like Cruden is the cherry on the top.

GO CRUDEN AND THE CHIEFS!

Sucks Kahui is injured, he deserves this final and I bet he's be brilliant. Next year me thinks.

man how awesome would it be if the Chiefs can complete the Double for the Region

ANZ championship for the Magic and the super15 for the Chiefs!

 

[Larksea]

In terms of loosehead prop, I don't think I've ever seen Taumololo not have a blinder in a big game (NZ v Tonga, NZ v France, Chiefs v Crusaders), so I think based on that merit alone I'd pick him over Smith.

Also agree with the call to put Masaga in the starting 22. What ever he's done to not get a starting spot, I have no idea. Clearly the best attacking wing the Chiefs have. Also happy with Robbie Robinson at fullback. Starting to look like the player he looked like in 2009 (agree with Darwin he was player of tournament). Great hard running, acceleration and agility. But the risk is more to do with decision making than anything else.

I think the thing with Robinson is his size, his small size allows him to have acceleration and speed much higher than your average player but it can also get him into trouble - makes him more vulnerable to being dominated in a tackle or after a high ball. Where someone like Dagg can take the ball to the line and hold it up for his forwards to arrive and secure possession Robinson struggles He does not have the size. I actually think because of that his best position is 10. no room in NZ super rugby for another 10 though.

 

[Darwin]

There is no doubt that Cruden, like all players, has strengths and weakness. There is also no doubt in my mind that he has been the form 10 in the entire competition, had the best season of any Chiefs first-five ever, has had the best season of any New Zealand 10 for a number of years, and completely outplayed Carter last weekend.

His current goal-kicking percentage is 77% (85/111), the second best of any New Zealand goal-kicker (behind Tom Taylor). I don't think there are any issues at all with his goal-kicking range - indeed he was very close to nailing one from at least 55m last weekend! His defense is certainly not perfect, but is better than many people give him credit for.

Like donmcdazzle I don't think you are giving Cruden near enough credit for the Chiefs performances this season. It often sounds like you are suggesting that the Chiefs have been a great team and Cruden has just 'gone along for the ride', where in reality I think the Chiefs have been a great team because of Cruden's outstanding performances. If Cruden wasn't at 10 for the Chiefs I don't even know of the Chiefs would have made the playoffs, let alone the finals! I would imagine that regardless of the result this weekend Cruden will (deservedly) win the New Zealand Super Rugby player of season award.

I think the thing with Robinson is his size, his small size allows him to have acceleration and speed much higher than your average player but it can also get him into trouble - makes him more vulnerable to being dominated in a tackle or after a high ball. Where someone like Dagg can take the ball to the line and hold it up for his forwards to arrive and secure possession Robinson struggles He does not have the size. I actually think because of that his best position is 10. no room in NZ super rugby for another 10 though.

Please no. Robinson has finally started to find his feet at Super Rugby level by focusing on playing fullback - I think it would be a massive mistake to make him play 10 anytime soon! His best asset is his counter-attacking ability from the back, while he struggles to control the game from the 10 jersey. As he continues to establish himself at Super Rugby level I wouldn't mind seeing him popping up at first-receiver a bit more often and hit the line hard (ala Nick Evans), as I think he could be very effective at this, but I really think he needs to continue to concentrate on establishing himself as a Super rugby quality fullback....

 

[Larksea]

Cruden has been pretty dam close with some long range shots, but has he actually got any?... Each to their own, he certainly is great (better than great) from short range. bar a few that he's missed he's been superb from close range. For maybe the first half of the season he basically banged over everything in his range, he did not have to kick many from further away and he was kicking about 90% Sideline and all.

i'm not at all suggesting Cruden has just had an armchair ride but lets be honest he's had it pretty damn sweat. And doesn't anyone else find it strange that he only plays first reciever about 15% of the time when players like Carter and Barrett I think are over 30% and he passes the least of any 10 in the comp?

No one else think that's interesting? Or understand why I'm reading into it? They are not just small statistical anomalies. They are massive differences.

 

[donmcdazzle]

Cruden has been pretty dam close with some long range shots, but has he actually got any?... Each to their own, he certainly is great (better than great) from short range. bar a few that he's missed he's been superb from close range. For maybe the first half of the season he basically banged over everything in his range, he did not have to kick many from further away and he was kicking about 90% Sideline and all.

i'm not at all suggesting Cruden has just had an armchair ride but lets be honest he's had it pretty damn sweat. And doesn't anyone else find it strange that he only plays first reciever about 15% of the time when players like Carter and Barrett I think are over 30% and he passes the least of any 10 in the comp?

No one else think that's interesting? Or understand why I'm reading into it? They are not just small statistical anomalies. They are massive differences.

It is interesting. What is the exact stat (and where do you get it from)? Is it % of the ball he gets at 1st receiver? Or is it % of Chiefs ball he gets at 1st receiver?

The forward pack thing is a decent observation; everyone knows the backs need th eplatform etc etc but that isn't the reason he plays well. You forget he played at ITM cup and stood out behind less than dominant Manawatu packs in past seasons, and completely dominated this year when the Manawatu pack actually were pretty good. Same thing with the SBW at 12 argument. Sure it helps but I've said this many times but I'm not sure if you pay any attention to it; he got player of the ITM cup with Frankie Bryant playing the majority of 12, so that proves he doesn't rely on a 12 to play well.

I don;t think he is a perfect player or anything it just seems odd that you are a more harsh critic on him than you are on any other player going.

 

[Darwin]

Cruden has been pretty dam close with some long range shots, but has he actually got any?... Each to their own, he certainly is great (better than great) from short range. bar a few that he's missed he's been superb from close range. For maybe the first half of the season he basically banged over everything in his range, he did not have to kick many from further away and he was kicking about 90% Sideline and all.

i'm not at all suggesting Cruden has just had an armchair ride but lets be honest he's had it pretty damn sweat. And doesn't anyone else find it strange that he only plays first reciever about 15% of the time when players like Carter and Barrett I think are over 30% and he passes the least of any 10 in the comp?

No one else think that's interesting? Or understand why I'm reading into it? They are not just small statistical anomalies. They are massive differences.

I'd be very interested to see where you are getting those stats from. I'm not suggesting they are wrong, I'm just curious where they are from as they seem a bit odd to me. The majority of the time the Chiefs use Cruden at first receiver in the backline, though on occasion they do use SBW to crash up the ball. I can only assume that these stats take into account one off forward runners as 'first receivers' (which the Chiefs use a lot of). If this is the case it doesn't tell us much about the Chiefs backline play, only that the Chiefs use a lot of forwards running one off the ruck!

 

[tenpm]

Chiefs:

15. Robbie Robinson
14. Tim Nanai-Williams
13. Andrew Horrell
12. Sonny Bill Williams
11. Asaeli Tikoirotuma
10. Aaron Cruden
9. Tawera Kerr-Barlow
8. Kane Thompson
7. Tanerau Latimer
6. Liam Messam
5. Brodie Retallick
4. Craig Clarke
3. Ben Tameifuna
2. Mahonri Schwalger
1. Sona Taumalolo
Reserves:
16. Hika Elliot
17. Ben Afeaki
18. Michael Fitzgerald
19. Sam Cane
20. Brendon Leonard
21. Jackson Willison
22. Lelia Masaga​

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

1. Tendai Mtawarira
2. Bismarck du Plessis *
3. Jannie du Plessis
4. Willem Alberts
5. Anton Bresler
6. Keegan Daniel ( C )
7. Marcell Coetzee
8. Ryan Kankowski
9. Charl McLeod
10. Frederic Michalak
11. Lwazi Mvovo
12. Paul Jordaan
13. JP Pietersen
14. Louis Ludik
15. Patrick Lambie


16. Craig Burden
17. Wiehahn Herbst
18. Steven Sykes
19. Jacques Botes
20. Jean Deysel
21. Meyer Bosman
22. Riaan Viljoen

* 100th Vodacom Super Rugby cap.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Game on

 

[Amobokoboko]

Pity Masaga isn't starting, for the rest it's one solid team.

 

[Darwin]

This should be a cracking final. We have two of the best attacking teams in the competition - I hope they don't go into their shells just because it is a final....

Both teams have named reasonably predictable lineups - I'm sure the Sharks will be happy to have Jordaan and Lambie back. Where the Sharks have an obvious edge in the front row. Du Plessis is the best hooker in world rugby (and has been for a few years IMO) so has an obvious edge over Schwalger, while Mtawarira has a clear edge in experience (and ability around the park) over Tameifuna. The battle on the other side of the scrum between Taumalolo and J du Plessis will be very interesting, as Taumalolo has seldom failed to impress in big matches (as Nick has already pointed out). Though I think the Sharks have a clear edge around the park in the front row, I'm not sure whether they will be able to secure and edge at scrum-time, as Tameifuna (at 1.82m and close to 140kg) is very hard to move! I think the Chiefs have a good advantage in the locks though, with Clarke and Retallick arguably the best locking combination in the entire tournament. Not because they do anything spectacular, but because they perform consistently every week. Alberts has certainly done a good job at lock in recent weeks, but I still remain unconvinced with him there, but I have been very impressed with Bresler recently. I remember commenting at the start of the season on the dearth of test quality locks in South Africa after the departure of Matfield, Rossouw and Botha - I expected that test quality locks would develop to fill their place, I just didn't think that they would appear so quickly! Not sure whether Bresler will be included in the Boks squad (as they now seem to have plenty of locks to choose from), but I don't think he would look out of place at test level.

I see the Sharks having an edge in the loosies, but only just. Messam and Coetzee have been clearly the two best blindsides in the competition in my opinion, so in some ways cancel each other out. Likewise I think Daniel and Latimer are pretty evenly matched. I was not a big fan of either before the season started, but I think both have had outstanding seasons - Daniel looks in line for a place in the Boks squad, while Latimer is still keeping Sam Cane on the bench (which takes some doing!). I think Kankowski has an edge over Thomson at 8, as he has been very impressive since retuning from injury. Thomson will get through a lot of hard work, but lacks the spark at 8 that Kankowski provides the Sharks. Both teams have some good impact players on the bench too, with the Sharks able to bring on Deysel and Botes, while the Chiefs can bring on Sam Cane.

I think the Chiefs have a big advantage in the halves. I'm not a big fan of McLeod, as I don't think his distribution is up to standard. I'm not convinced that Kerr-Barlow's passing game is that much better (it can be at times though), but Kerr-Barlow brings a number of other attributes to the fold. He is a great defender, both head on and in cover defense, and has saved tries on a number of occasions this season with his defense. He is particularly good at pressuring the opposition halfback too, and is a very dangerous runner near the base of the ruck. His decision making is probably the only thing that is preventing the AB's selectors from picking him in their squad right now (though he may well edge out Weepu with a strong performance here). Michalek has been pretty good over recent weeks, but Cruden has been the best 10 in the entire competition for me. I'd expect he (and SBW) will spend a lot of time attack the 10/12 channel between Michalek and Joordan, as this is a rookie combination (I think?).

Again I see the Chiefs with an edge in the mid-field, though I think both mid-fields have a bit of a 'make-shift' look about them. I'm not sure what Jordaan's favoured position is (I thought he was more a 13, who could cover wing?), and I think he will have a hard time marking SBW, who has been in great form recently. I'm not at all convinced about Pietersen at centre - too me it looks more like the Sharks are trying to get the best 15 players on the field, rather than picking the best players for each position. Pietersen played a bit at centre during the start of the season, but was pretty underwhelming there if I remember correctly - I don't think he has the necessary distribution skills, nor the defensive awareness to play there (he is a very good defender on the wing, but the defensive duties are very different at centre....). I thought he has been in outstanding form since he switched back to the wing, so the Sharks will be hoping he continues this form at centre.

The Chiefs have some dangerous runners in their outside backs, but I think the Sharks have the edge here. Lambie may not be as dangerous on the counter-attack as Robinson, but he is more reliable (though I still think he should be starting at 10...). Mvovo has been in strong form again this season, and though Nanai-Williams can be very dangerous when on form, he has been pretty quiet in recent weeks. Though Ludik is not in his best position he is still a quality player. I've been very impressed with him recently, particularly in defense where he has been outstanding. It will be interesting to see how he goes against Tikoirotuma, who has some real pace and can put a lot of pressure on opposition wings. He is a big hit and miss in defense though - he always goes in hard, and when he connects he make a big hit, but he does miss a few tackles too.

There will be a new Super Rugby champion no matter the result, which is exciting! I'm picking the Chiefs to take it by 5-10 due to their home advantage, and the fact I think the Sharks hellish travel schedule over the last few weeks may take its toll late in the match....

 

[Dizzy]

I've put all my vcash on the Sharks to pull in the close encounter.... This is going to be a great game!