[RWC2023] South Africa vs Tonga (01/10/2023)

[Joe 90]

Ref only reffing one side here. Must be soul destroying for the Tongans.

All this talk about helping Tier 2 nations, is just meaningless BS, when they get reffed out of every game......

Rugby has a death wish, the rules are incomprehensible and the games are rigged for the big 4 ......no wonder teams are going ***s up, non stop.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Worldie

 

[Gavin]

Lovely try and story for the fella

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Perfect game for making us develop an itch come the QF assuming we make it that far..

Needed just 7 more points difference there tbh.

 

[saulan]

Perfect game for making us develop an itch come the QF assuming we make it that far..

Needed just 7 more points difference there tbh.

I mean, it's immaterial. We are through. If Ireland win, then we are through. If Scotland win with a bonus point and Ireland get the 7pt losing bonus point, we are through and Scotland are out because their points difference isn't big enough. If Scotland win with the bonus point and Ireland get a try scoring bonus point, but the margin of the loss is (I think) more than 12- then Ireland are out (because their points difference decreases and we are only 5 behind. If Ireland gets two bonus points (one for within 7 points) then again Scotland are out, because it would be just us tied together, and we beat them in the head to head (plus our points difference would be better).

I can't think of a permutation where we go out from here. Pretty sure we are locked in.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

According to the BBC:

 

[saulan]

According to the BBC:
View attachment 17972

That doesn't make sense. Surely if all three are tied then points difference determines all three, not just the team that is first and then a head to head for the next two?

Edit: Nope, you're right. Just looked it up. Restarts after a team is decided. Oddly confusing approach.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Yeah when you consider any and all possibilities Boks and Ireland are through.

God I love Scotland match week.

 

[AngloScotsHybrid]

Ive not been impressed with Canan Moodie in this tournament. His decision making has been poor.

 

[saulan]

That doesn't make sense. Surely if all three are tied then points difference determines all three, not just the team that is first and then a head to head for the next two?

Edit: Nope, you're right. Just looked it up. Restarts after a team is decided. Oddly confusing approach.

Although to be fair, the minimum scoreline for us to be knocked out is 41-20 to Scotland. That's a lot of points to be shipped against that strong Irish defense.

 

[Lé Ddanno]

Yeah when you consider any and all possibilities Boks and Ireland are through.

God I love Scotland match week.

Throw it, really hard, we need another Rassie meltdown

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I mean, it's immaterial. We are through. If Ireland win, then we are through. If Scotland win with a bonus point and Ireland get the 7pt losing bonus point, we are through and Scotland are out because their points difference isn't big enough. If Scotland win with the bonus point and Ireland get a try scoring bonus point, but the margin of the loss is (I think) more than 12- then Ireland are out (because their points difference decreases and we are only 5 behind. If Ireland gets two bonus points (one for within 7 points) then again Scotland are out, because it would be just us tied together, and we beat them in the head to head (plus our points difference would be better).

I can't think of a permutation where we go out from here. Pretty sure we are locked in.

Pretty much a gimme but every point would make it even more likely. We were pretty darn disjointed this game and really need to up the accuracy in the opposition 22. It's been a trend this tournament to not get points that are right there.

Ive not been impressed with Canan Moodie in this tournament. His decision making has been poor.

Agreed. He looked to have overtaken an in form Kriel and even put pressure on Am if Am can get back to form after the warm up games but he needs to get back to being a team player. Only 19 still so one for the future if he can get his head right.

 

[Jer1cho]

Yeah when you consider any and all possibilities Boks and Ireland are through.

God I love Scotland match week.

If Scotland beat you and deny you a BP, Boks top pool and Ireland are gone. Its far FAR easier for Scotland to try knock IRE out than SA.

 

[AlRums]

Scotland need 8 or more points and no BP for either team (or 1 BP for Sco) to go through and eliminate Ireland

So, a result of 8-0 to Sco will do

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

So what do think about the squad going forward (again making the assumption we are very likely to go through)? It almost looked like having Pollard there either took the pressure off Libbok at goals OR the motivation? Even then we know Libbok has a 7/7 in him so it might just be one of those days. Whichever way the selections go I reckon we've seen the last of the 7-1 split at least. My picks going forward:

1 Kitshoff
2 Mbonambi (missing putting Marx's name down T_T)
3 Malherbe
4 Etzebeth
5 Mostert
6 Kolisi
7 PSdT
8 Vermeulen (Wiese has gone well enough and has more speed and has gone well at the breakdown but for me I'd go Vermeulen. Little less pace but still enough go-forward and better hands and less penalties)
9 De Klerk
10 Pollard (for my money in the QF v France we are going to need calm heads, territory and a steady income of 3s more than anything else, at least to start off with)
11 Arendse
12 De Allende (TBF Esterhuizen has gone well but De Allende still edges it)
13 Kriel (Moodie has looked overeager both on attack and in D whereas Kriel has been an absolute champ on D this tournament)
14 Kolbe
15 Willemse (has been excellent- even our best v Ireland whereas Le Roux has continued more cold than hot)

16 Fourie
17 Nche
18 Nyakane
19 Snyman
20 Kleyn (just because Fourie at 16 means we have 1,5 loose forward cover and Snyman could cover there at a pinch as well)
21 Smith
22 Reinach
23 Libbok

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Scotland need 8 or more points and no BP for either team (or 1 BP for Sco) to go through and eliminate Ireland

So, a result of 8-0 to Sco will do

It feels weird as a South African thinking that Ireland are more likely than us to be out (although one would expect Scotland MOST likely to miss out).

But in thinking about it you have to look at the entirety of it and not just the Ire-SA match but taking the SA-Sco match into play the fact Scotland didn't get a BP and we got one v Ire helped us into this position, Ire-Sco being the last piece of the puzzle.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

If Scotland beat you and deny you a BP, Boks top pool and Ireland are gone. Its far FAR easier for Scotland to try knock IRE out than SA.

You are right but that's like me saying it's FAR easier for me to get a date with Emma Watson than Margot Robbie. One is closer but there's some pretty mean barriers...

Ireland won't lose to Scotland now, it's probably coming in the next world cup cycle but they're so far off our level right now. Just like they were v the Boks.

 

[saulan]

So what do think about the squad going forward (again making the assumption we are very likely to go through)? It almost looked like having Pollard there either took the pressure off Libbok at goals OR the motivation? Even then we know Libbok has a 7/7 in him so it might just be one of those days. Whichever way the selections go I reckon we've seen the last of the 7-1 split at least. My picks going forward:

1 Kitshoff
2 Mbonambi (missing putting Marx's name down T_T)
3 Malherbe
4 Etzebeth
5 Mostert
6 Kolisi
7 PSdT
8 Vermeulen (Wiese has gone well enough and has more speed and has gone well at the breakdown but for me I'd go Vermeulen. Little less pace but still enough go-forward and better hands and less penalties)
9 De Klerk
10 Pollard (for my money in the QF v France we are going to need calm heads, territory and a steady income of 3s more than anything else, at least to start off with)
11 Arendse
12 De Allende (TBF Esterhuizen has gone well but De Allende still edges it)
13 Kriel (Moodie has looked overeager both on attack and in D whereas Kriel has been an absolute champ on D this tournament)
14 Kolbe
15 Willemse (has been excellent- even our best v Ireland whereas Le Roux has continued more cold than hot)

16 Fourie
17 Nche
18 Nyakane
19 Snyman
20 Kleyn (just because Fourie at 16 means we have 1,5 loose forward cover and Snyman could cover there at a pinch as well)
21 Smith
22 Reinach
23 Libbok

This looks right, but I think Libbok starts instead of Pollard. I felt our backline felt significantly more blunt today with Pollard in the flyhalf position vs when Manie is there. He didn't really attack the gainline while activating the backline and either played a basher role or relied on WLR to do something interesting (apart from maybe the small grubber through).

I also think it's better to have that chance on attack in the first 50 minutes, then have Pollard in the last 30 minutes if it's close to kick any remaining points if it's a close one.

 

[Jer1cho]

You are right but that's like me saying it's FAR easier for me to get a date with Emma Watson than Margot Robbie. One is closer but there's some pretty mean barriers...

Ireland won't lose to Scotland now, it's probably coming in the next world cup cycle but they're so far off our level right now. Just like they were v the Boks.

I agree. But stranger things have happened in sport.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I agree. But stranger things have happened in sport.

If it happens I'll be in for a lot "banter". It'd be a meltdown that I just can't see coming from this Ireland team though, expect us to win 25-7 or something similar.