[RWC2023] South Africa vs Ireland (23/09/2023)

[Cruz_del_Sur]

I for one think both Ireland and SA should be able to get on top of NZ 7 times out of 10 atm.

I'd bet against that but i like your optimism.


Regarding IRE vs RSA, anyone can win (hello captain obvious!), sure, but i see RSA having a simpler plan to execute and that is a huge advantage imo. And there was something in their last game: look at how they rushed their penalties. They werent trying to get the points, avoid injuries and move on. They were seriously motivated, like on-a-mission motivated.
I wouldn't go as far as saying that RSA is better than IRE but styles make fights, and out of the top 4 (IRE-FRA-NZ-RSA), style-wise, RSA's counters IRE's the best imo.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I'd bet against that but i like your optimism.

Really? All evidence points toward it being the case. A QF against NZ is definitely the prize of this game.

 

[Smurfy]

It very much depends on how Ireland handle the speed of the Saffer defence. The blitz defence puts huge pressure on the attackers but if it's breached it's difficult to recover against a side like Ireland that will flood the breach. Ireland have an incredible certainty and confidence that is about as unIrish as it gets, and they've been working towards this game since last summer, when Farrell decided that a three test series against NZ wasn't stressful enough and added the two matches against the Māoris. I think SA on their more recent form have to be slight favourites, but if they win it they'll have worked their arses off for it.

 

[unrated]

Agree that I think Bealham can hang with Nche. Honestly think Bealham could even have the edge now Nche will be scrummaging alongside an openside flanker. Think people (the SA coaching staff included) are seriously underestimating the role of the hooker at scrum time.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

I'm not doubting Nche by any means. He's class. But how many of those scrums were alongside a back rower?

 

[unrated]

Bongi will stay on until around 60 minutes for this game, we dont need to be as stingy with minutes now for our hookers, maybe even longer. it seems van Staden will then play a hooker role in the scrums, and Deon Fourie could throw in. The added benefit of these guys at the breakdown will be gold, even if we stop dominating the scrums second half

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Really? All evidence points toward it being the case

Really. I guess were are not looking at the same evidence then. What was the outcome of the last 4 games RSA and NZ played?

To be crystal clear, i did not say NZ would be the favourites. I said I would bet against those specific odds against NZ.

10 games might be a small sample and this is obviously just a thought experiment but I don't think there is a team that could beat NZ 70 out of 100 times. Teams that could win more that they'd lose? A few. 70-30? I'd bet against those odds.

 

[Smurfy]

The ease with which Munster's not particularly powerful front row handled Malherbe and Kitsoff vin the URC final was very surprising. Furlong and Porter are light years ahead of Loughman and Archer. In the case of Archer it's probably true to say that Furlong is at the far end of the universe.

 

[unrated]

Really. I guess were are not looking at the same evidence then. What was the outcome of the last 4 games RSA and NZ played?

To be crystal clear, i did not say NZ would be the favourites. I said I would bet against those specific odds against NZ.

10 games might be a small sample and this is obviously just a thought experiment but I don't think there is a team that could beat NZ 70 out of 100 times. Teams that could win more that they'd lose? A few. 70-30? I'd bet against those odds.

This is the world cup, its a different type of game, that large sample size against NZ matters little.

But I grant that I would not easily bet against NZ in a QF. TBH I would rather have France. I think we can make them fold under pressure especially in the world cup at home. NZ on the other hand has shown in world cups they can do it. As can South Africa.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

It very much depends on how Ireland handle the speed of the Saffer defence.

There is a bit of that but I believe there's more. Who do you see winning meters in most collisions? I don't think that is trivial.

 

[Becca]

Perhaps it's just me but I think it's pretty dangerous using non-specialist hookers.

 

[Grizwald]

As a neutral I'm looking forward to this one. I really thought the 7:1 bench was just a one off due to a warm up injury to Le Roux? Anyhow it's high risk, particularly with no real hooker cover I can't see it having quite the same impact as the AB's game at Twickenham. I guess we're going to find out if a part time hooker can cut it against a top line front 3 or not.

Also an injury in the backs and you're really having to shuffle a lot of players.

I reckon Ireland will sneak this one.

 

[Which Tyler]

Perhaps it's just me but I think it's pretty dangerous using non-specialist hookers.

Yep, really not happy about it.
If I were the ref, I'd need to see video evidence that he'd trainde and played there as an adult, or declare him a non-specialist, so uncontested scrums, and lose another player.
Playing a THP there would be a different matter, they're accustomed to the forces, but a flanker is outright dangerous, and the ref is the arbiter of that on the pitch, not the coach.

Usually proviso though, I am (well, was) a SH, so will happily take the word of someone who knows about the dark arts.

 

[big ginger 8]

There is a bit of that but I believe there's more. Who do you see winning meters in most collisions? I don't think that is trivial.

I'm trying not to seem like I'm bigging up our players too much but which of our regular players do you see losing most collisions?

I know we don't really have any guys you'd point to as monsters and SA have plenty but it's not like we're dumb enough to run straight into them. Most of our players have excellent contact skills and take it on their terms. Even then the likes of our starting frontrow, Doris, Aki and Sheehan and potentially Baird/Conan off the bench are no slouches.

I'm sure there will be many massive collisions and we'll lose our fair share but unless everything completely falls apart we're not getting steamrolled. Ireland have the fastest ruck speed of any team and while a lot of that obviously comes from the lads rucking a huge amount comes from the carrier.

 

[Grizwald]

Perhaps it's just me but I think it's pretty dangerous using non-specialist hookers.

Potentially. There's a fair bit of pressure and weight coming through. Not as much as the props, it will be targeted.

 

[Smurfy]

There is a bit of that but I believe there's more. Who do you see winning meters in most collisions? I don't think that is trivial.

If Ireland operate as individuals with or without the ball SA would be the clear winners, but Ireland have shown in the past year that they are very effective at having players to support both the carrier and tackler. Footwork also plays a huge part in collisions. It is not simply a case of individual power prevailing, otherwise Ireland wouldn't be on a 15 match winning run.

PS What BG8 said.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Really. I guess were are not looking at the same evidence then. What was the outcome of the last 4 games RSA and NZ played?

To be crystal clear, i did not say NZ would be the favourites. I said I would bet against those specific odds against NZ.

10 games might be a small sample and this is obviously just a thought experiment but I don't think there is a team that could beat NZ 70 out of 100 times. Teams that could win more that they'd lose? A few. 70-30? I'd bet against those odds.

Depends if you think SA have peaked or not. If the two sides played every week for two years, yeah I think you're right. If they are to meet in the QF in three weeks time and you could play the same game in the exact same circumstances 100 times I think they hit 70/100.

Now obviously Ireland could win, SA's recent aura crumbles and it turns out they continue to be a bit up and down in terms of consistency. But that's kind of the point of winning this match, having momentum and meeting a team who seem to have an instruction manual on how to beat them.

 

[unrated]

Ireland seems to have the upper hand it seems as AI refuses to back down and accept a clover can be eaten by a Springbok

Prompt: gangster springbok, a South African antelope, rendered with realism. consuming green four-leaf Irish clover leaf with open mouth visible, correct size, small springbok, mouth filled with clover leaves

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

I get what Cruz was saying. 70% chance of any top team beating a top is a lot. I'd put any of RSA, IRE, or FRA as closer to 70% chance of winning than a toss up but 70% is huge at that level.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Lot of talk about whether Ireland should go 6-2, we shouldn't.

What I think would be a hilarious way to react and fight fire with fire (which isn't Faz' MO) would be to stick Johnny on the bench. I reckon we can hang for 55-60 with Crowley, as they're bringing on their psychological boost, we bring on our most important player.