[RWC2023 SF2] England vs South Africa (21/10/2023)

[TopTen2003]

I'm surprised the Boks are unchanged. That was a brutal test match last week and you just never know whether the Ireland game and then the French game might have just taken a little out of the legs.

England will need to be meticulous with the kicking game however and wherever they can, rotate the scoreboard. You don't wanna be going 9 points down to the Boks as it can very quickly feel like a tall order when they impose their physicality.

On the other hand, I feel like England have had that time to keep building their game and confidence - their Argentina win with 14 men now looks very good on paper, the Japan game they managed it very well and Samoa gave them the scare they needed to get up for the knockouts.

They mostly played well in the QF save a mad 4 minutes, the breakdown was very good IMO and vulture-like at times, and if they can build on that and give SA some trouble with the high ball and kick chase, there is a case to be made that this can be closer than people think.

It's an almighty test of our set piece however, especially after the 2019 nightmare in the final.

Hard to see where we have an edge, but you just never know if they get out of the blocks what can happen.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

England: Steward; May, Marchant, Tuilagi, Daly; Farrell (capt), Mitchell; Marler, George, Cole, Itoje, Martin, Lawes, Curry, Earl.

Replacements: Dan, Genge, Sinckler, Chessum, Vunipola, Care, Ford, Lawrence.

 

[Zac_ETNZ]

... A lot of rugby fans are tired of seeing the same two teams winning it....

That's a very big presumptuous sweeping statement which I seriously doubt you can support with any meaningful numbers. I'm guessing that SA and NZ supporters won't be among your "lot of rugby fans" claim...

While I understand your sentiment, the simple fact is RWC knock-out format means the team with the depth, fitness and management programmes stand a better chance of winning. World Ranking in-between RWCs don't count in RWCs - we've landed on our butts when we were expected to win as No.1, and Ireland has just suffered the same fate.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

England: Steward; May, Marchant, Tuilagi, Daly; Farrell (capt), Mitchell; Marler, George, Cole, Itoje, Martin, Lawes, Curry, Earl.

Replacements: Dan, Genge, Sinckler, Chessum, Vunipola, Care, Ford, Lawrence.

Martin starting is a surprise - Chessum carrying a knock?

 

[Greeno]

Martin starting is a surprise - Chessum carrying a knock?

Think he's gone for bulk and tackling ability

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Think he's gone for bulk and tackling ability

Yeah, suppose - Chessum not tiny though
Worry about our lineout now, but we'll probably be blasting route one ball all game anyway so as long as we've one jumper we're ok

 

[AngloScotsHybrid]

Finally a team selection for England that makes sense. Pick your strongest scrummaging props against south africa. Marler should have started the last world cup final. The extra bulk of Martin against south africa is also logical. Steward at fullback for the high ball again makes sense.
This is the first of Borthwick's team selections in his whole tenure that I have agreed with.

 

[AngloScotsHybrid]

Wasn't that Mako?

Most of the penalties were given against Cole on the tighthead side. The beast was destroying him. I remember one scrum where Cole had his legs too far back and he just collapsed.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Good to see Marler start but Cole after what the Boks did to him last time? Is Martin pushing behind him or Itoje?

 

[saulan]

That's a very big presumptuous sweeping statement which I seriously doubt you can support with any meaningful numbers. I'm guessing that SA and NZ supporters won't be among your "lot of rugby fans" claim...

I agree on this point. Speaking to people at the Twickenham SA vs NZ game, there were people/families that had travelled from Ireland/Leicester/Scotland to come watch that game because of the spectacle and a rare opportunity to watch that big clash from a NH perspective. I know there was a train strike the next day, but none of those fans I spoke to were planning to stick around for the England-Fiji game the next day (even the Leicester group).

 

[Reiser99]

In going for power and aerial security we sacrifice whatever limited attack we had. I don't see where our points come from short of S.A racking up 15+ penalties

 

[Wichita]

Think he's gone for bulk and tackling ability

Surely not a team to run and play, expect an attritional game for 60 minutes before the subs come in. Still, in an attrition contest, I'll take the boks to win easily against this English team.

 

[Grizwald]

Good to see Marler start but Cole after what the Boks did to him last time? Is Martin pushing behind him or Itoje?

Martin is only listed as 3 kg heavier than Itoje and the same as Chessum. He's definitely one for the the future although he might become more of a 6.

Given the the one of nature and players moving abroad and retiring I though when the squad was picked it was crying out for the likes of Joe Launchbury who's got 7/8kg on any of the locks in the squad.

 

[BrokenWing]

That's a very big presumptuous sweeping statement which I seriously doubt you can support with any meaningful numbers. I'm guessing that SA and NZ supporters won't be among your "lot of rugby fans" claim...

Ask anyone outside those two countries who they'd prefer to win and I bet hardly any say either of those two.

It's not even about a dislike of those countries, it's more of a nice change that another country has achieved a quality enough to compete with them.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Martin starting is a surprise - Chessum carrying a knock?

Dropped for not carrying enough.

@Scotty called Marler. Right decision in my book. Cole is a gamble - he doesn't add much outside the scrum and they'll be right after him there.

That's a big ask for Martin. He's still pretty raw and that Bok pack isn't just powerful, but streetwise. This is the kind of game that could make him or set him back. I hope he swims.

Bench as expected, but don't like Binny there. He's big but that's about it, he doesn't punch his weight, Ludlam or Underhill would have been better.

George goes down and both scrum and line out are in really, I mean really, big trouble. The guy's going to be knackered due to minutes played but he at least needs to stay upright.

 

[Grizwald]

England: Steward; May, Marchant, Tuilagi, Daly; Farrell (capt), Mitchell; Marler, George, Cole, Itoje, Martin, Lawes, Curry, Earl.

Replacements: Dan, Genge, Sinckler, Chessum, Vunipola, Care, Ford, Lawrence.

There was a possibility if Smith was fit of putting Steward on to a wing for difusing and offer an aerial threat O suppose. Against Fiji I'm not sure how much Smith improved the attacking shape, I know he got snagged trying to run the ball which resulted in a penalty.

I see the logic of starting the strongest scummagers, painting a picture to the ref and all that but I'll be surprised if they even get parity and should just avoid scrums as much as possible.

There's actually a counter argument if you can't fight fire with fire go the other way and start Genge with Rodd on the bench who's good around the park. I like Joe Marler but his mobility seems to have dropped off a lot.

Happy to see 2 proper centre's, but I don't see where England are winning this one, SA didn't look tired to me after the France game.

 

[nicb_wrld]

That's a very big presumptuous sweeping statement which I seriously doubt you can support with any meaningful numbers. I'm guessing that SA and NZ supporters won't be among your "lot of rugby fans" claim...

While I understand your sentiment, the simple fact is RWC knock-out format means the team with the depth, fitness and management programmes stand a better chance of winning. World Ranking in-between RWCs don't count in RWCs - we've landed on our butts when we were expected to win as No.1, and Ireland has just suffered the same fate.

I'm not agree with rugby fans fade up with the same team if the show is great.

But many rugby fans from the nothern hemisphere are fed up with seeing referees from the south not applying the rules... and influence the result too much when it's tight.

 

[OllyM97]

"Insanity is doing the Same thing over and over again and expecting a different result ". Why do we try to take SA on at their strength every time we play them, when that ploy has largely failed abysmally since 2003. Unlike Ireland, and to a certain degree Wales, the Springboks have absolutely no fear about playing England. They don't rate us, and frankly why would they when they've beaten us 15 times in the last 20 meetings?.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

"Insanity is doing the Same thing over and over again and expecting a different result ". Why do we try to take SA on at their strength every time we play them, when that ploy has largely failed abysmally since 2003. Unlike Ireland, and to a certain degree Wales, the Springboks have absolutely no fear about playing England. They don't rate us, and frankly why would they when they've beaten us 15 times in the last 20 meetings?.

You can't totally fight fire with fire but if you can't at least stand up to them physically everything else becomes a bit irrelevant.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Issue with dropping Cole is Sinckler and Stuart are worse in the scrum
We're gonna get beat up there regardless but Cole might see us retain our own put-ins