[RWC2023 SF2] England vs South Africa (21/10/2023)

[Zac_ETNZ]

I'm surprised the Boks are unchanged.

Why?? It's knock-out rugby, why rest players and risk losing? All 4 semi-finalists are playing their strongest selections - as they should. Lose and go home.

 

[Zac_ETNZ]

I don't know if this hasn't been posted here before but it popped in my feed

Sir Clive

Visionary analysis by sir Clive, the boks are not as fit apparently

The Saffers do deliberately slow down the game with "injury" stops, and the way they're cynically abusing the HIA protocol needs to be stopped. One of their female assistants was screaming out instructions from the sideline which I didn't think was allowed.

 

[TopTen2003]

Why?? It's knock-out rugby, why rest players and risk losing? All 4 semi-finalists are playing their strongest selections - as they should. Lose and go home.

Because we saw with England in 2019, they had overcooked the week before in beating the ABs. The Boks depth is incredible and I expected 4 or 5 to freshen up and go for the jugular early against England.

On the ENG selection- wow has Dan Cole got a test on his hands. 4 years on from the WC Final mauling- I really do hope he produces a career best performance and comes out fighting.

I had a feeling Martin would play but I wondered if he'd go into the back row tbh and just asked to be a tackle machine. Big step up for him but also a monumental opportunity - if he empties the tank for 50 mins and then lets Chessum do the same for 30, I can take that. Do we lose anything lineout wise by including Martin over Chessum?

 

[Wendigo7]

"Insanity is doing the Same thing over and over again and expecting a different result ". Why do we try to take SA on at their strength every time we play them, when that ploy has largely failed abysmally since 2003. Unlike Ireland, and to a certain degree Wales, the Springboks have absolutely no fear about playing England. They don't rate us, and frankly why would they when they've beaten us 15 times in the last 20 meetings?.

The game is about physicality. The best teams win the collisions, SA are the biggest and the strongest.

If you forfeit the collision now you lose the match. NZ found out badly last time they played SA what happens if they don't match the physicality and try to play.

It's a must. Ireland, SA and France are huge packs designed to win collisions. In the grand scheme of things NZs win of Ireland was a freak result really.

 

[OwenPB]

In the grand scheme of things NZs win of Ireland was a freak result really.

Not really a freak result, they were tactically well prepared, started fast and took what chances they were presented with. Add in some realism and some of the best defense we've seen outside of, well, Ireland these past 12 months.
Without taking anything away from their win, I still think the game could have gone either way and the teams are currently very evenly matched.
It's only an "exceptional" result if you count a year of previous results, but we're here at the WC now and I don't know an Irish supporter who wouldn't snap-trade you last year's series win in NZ to be standing in Paris Friday evening belting out Ireland's Call.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Marcus being concussed explains why England dropped off so badly after his injury against Fiji. Some explaining to be done on why he was allowed back on the field. I don't think Marcus is fantastic, i just think England need two playmakers between 10, centres and fullback. Only one here (if I can call Farrell that) so its hard to imagine them generating anything even if the Boks have an off day. With Marcus at 15 I always felt England were close to taking a big leap so I am rather miffed he isn't available. Folk say Steward is a good player and its not his fault he is invisible, but Marcus didn't have that issue in the same side.

Any Boks 23 should walk over this given England's selection but England must be heartened with France bossing the Boks up front. Being massive underdogs will also help channel the siege mentality we saw againat Argentina . If England can keep this tight for 20mins their confidence could go through the roof. However, as I said in the France game, Libbok plus Willemse = opportunities for tries and should see the Boks ease out in the first half.

Boks 29 - 6 England

Given how awful my QF predictions were I await a NH triumph.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I don't know if this hasn't been posted here before but it popped in my feed

Sir Clive

Visionary analysis by sir Clive, the boks are not as fit apparently

The great bald one always talks a load of drivel.

 

[Saintjay]

Two isn't that many considering how much people have gone about it

Is that all it was, watching it seemed a few more.

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

One of their female assistants was screaming out instructions from the sideline which I didn't think was allowed.

This is what we're complaining about now?

 

[SteveAustin794582]

I'm surprised the Boks are unchanged. That was a brutal test match last week and you just never know whether the Ireland game and then the French game might have just taken a little out of the legs.

England will need to be meticulous with the kicking game however and wherever they can, rotate the scoreboard. You don't wanna be going 9 points down to the Boks as it can very quickly feel like a tall order when they impose their physicality.

On the other hand, I feel like England have had that time to keep building their game and confidence - their Argentina win with 14 men now looks very good on paper, the Japan game they managed it very well and Samoa gave them the scare they needed to get up for the knockouts.

They mostly played well in the QF save a mad 4 minutes, the breakdown was very good IMO and vulture-like at times, and if they can build on that and give SA some trouble with the high ball and kick chase, there is a case to be made that this can be closer than people think.

It's an almighty test of our set piece however, especially after the 2019 nightmare in the final.

Hard to see where we have an edge, but you just never know if they get out of the blocks what can happen.

Add in the 35-7 "warm-up" game for the Boks prior to the start of the cup, and maybe they bolted out of the gates too early? I think a conservative English game plan might be a like for like with the SA game, so would not expect SA to outrun the English, and as long as England can hold in the lineouts, and don't give away too many scrum penalties, then they can be thereabouts for the final five minutes.

 

[Scotty]

Crazy that 26 players of both teams played in the RWC Final 4 years ago. By my count 8 starting for England vs SA 10.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

I agree on this point. Speaking to people at the Twickenham SA vs NZ game, there were people/families that had travelled from Ireland/Leicester/Scotland to come watch that game because of the spectacle and a rare opportunity to watch that big clash from a NH perspective. I know there was a train strike the next day, but none of those fans I spoke to were planning to stick around for the England-Fiji game the next day (even the Leicester group).

I don't see that this makes the point redundant at all though. You can both love the big clashes between those two (I know I do) whilst also thinking it would be nice to see more diversity of teams in finals.
And yes England are pretty garbage at the moment and not the best watch - don't see how there's much read across from that.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

Understandable, but with 8 of the 9 RWCs won by 3 SH countries, it reflects the concentration of rugby strength in the SH - shown yet again even in this RWC with 3 SH semi-finalists.

It's just not that simple. Historically for sure, but on this occasion you're reading too much across from a number of coin toss semi finals. The idea that Argentina being in the semis adds to the argument of SH dominance is silly. People are just really desperate to continue believing the hemispheres is still a meaningful distinction. Sure it might be again but it's not right now.

 

[saulan]

I don't see that this makes the point redundant at all though. You can both love the big clashes between those two (I know I do) whilst also thinking it would be nice to see more diversity of teams in finals.
And yes England are pretty garbage at the moment and not the best watch - don't see how there's much read across from that.

Fair enough, my point was more around the world still seeing the spectacle of SA vs NZ game, which isn't the same as which teams are others tired of seeing winning the thing.

I do, in fairness subscribe to the viewpoint that something has been sucked out of this World Cup from both France and Ireland being knocked out in this NH hosted RWC. There was anticipation and excitement as to whether one of these teams could actually do it and everything was set for it, but then New Zealand pitched up and South Africa probably have their best coaching team they've had and a ton of experience in knock outs. France is really well positioned for the next World Cup though, that team is still pretty young.

There will be a point where these phases end and other teams will be top of the pile though. The sport is still growing and developing and is on a much better trajectory than cricket (where I feel like things have consolidated).
First 9 FIFA world cups, 5 different winners
Uruguay x2
Italy x2
West Germany x1
Brazil x3
England x1

Next win was to West Germany again, so remained at 5 winners. since that tournament in 1970, the list of winners has increased from 5 to 8.

First 9 RWC, 4 winners:
South Africa x3
New Zealand x3
Australia x2
England x1

Next winner is likely going to be one of these 3 (unless Argentina does something special), so it will likely remain 10 RWC and 4 winners. Only one off football's first winners so not all that bad. Realistically, Ireland and France have the opportunity to win in the next 4-8 years. Argentina and Wales could do it with a really good cycle (but feel like Wales' best shot was 2019 and their structures are shot now) and in the longer term Japan, USA and Italy could develop into something if they pick up their league structures going strong and player development.

Sadly I think Scotland have also had their ideal window close.

I've just made a couple of hot takes in there. Backlash should be fun.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

probably cause NZ vs South Africa taking place at twickenham is an incredibly rare event. Only second time ever. Meanwhile England fans probably aren't as exited for the millionth England match of the year, especially when they might lose to a tier 2.

 

[Welsh Exile]

You would've got insane odds 4 years ago after the final if you made a bet that Cole would be starting the 2023 semi final against SA. I didn't think he was good enough then let alone now. I'm sure he'll be fired up for it and now I've slagged him off he'll probably have a stormer so you can thank me later.

 

[saulan]

probably cause NZ vs South Africa taking place at twickenham is an incredibly rare event. Only second time ever. Meanwhile England fans probably aren't as exited for the millionth England match of the year, especially when they might lose to a tier 2.

That was the reason, although from those that travelled it was more "How frequently do you get to watch a game between these two if you live in the Northern Hemisphere?" than it just being down to only English fans wanting to watch it

 

[saulan]

Updated version of that table of minutes played for the semi-final teams, displayed for the starting line-ups for the weekend's games:

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

Updated version of that table of minutes played for the semi-final teams, displayed for the starting line-ups for the weekend's games:
View attachment 18255

Those don't look correct. Genge having less minutes than Dan, then Care only getting 43 minutes of rugby?

 

[saulan]

Those don't look correct. Genge having less minutes than Dan, then Care only getting 43 minutes of rugby?

Column to the left of the name instead of to the right of the name. I did the same thing first time I read it. Not a lover of the format.