[RWC2023 QF2] Ireland vs New Zealand (14/10/2023)

[Zac_ETNZ]

can we get a france ireland final?)

Yes, but France will have to beat SA in their QF.

My SF picks:
ABs v Argentina
SA v England

Final: ABs v Boks

 

[Umaga's Witness]

It will depend on how Ireland handles the pressures of a nation's expectations, favouritism status in the match as No.1 team, and their historical QF exits. We've been there, done that and we wear the scars as forever reminders.

The All Blacks are playing under a new experience - as underdogs. My only concern is they will play as underdogs mentally, instead of the conviction that the are reclaiming their throne.

The winner of this QF will win the final.

47-21 to the All Blacks

The all lacks are deservedly underdogs. The last thing they need is the false confidence that comes with the conviction that they are reclaiming their throne. They need to know they need to execute perfectly and focus on what they need to do to beat Ireland. Underdogs win either because the favourites underperform or because the underdog performs at their best while tailoring their approach to the oppostion.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

great post

if we are the lose then id liked either france or ireland to do it (can we get a france ireland final?)

i have to say i just dont get the hate out there for this team or that team, the most negative i can get is preferring SA not win again as then they would have more than us...but if they do then they probably deserve it....

Yeah i will honestly be happy for whatever team wins

 

[munstermuffin]

I hear rumours that Ilume has been making overtures through intermediaries to Farrell as coach of England...

Thankfully Farrell has stated numerous times the England job is not for him. So I'd say that all BS rumours especially when England have a list with no Farrell too

 

[Zac_ETNZ]

Thankfully Farrell has stated numerous times the England job is not for him. So I'd say that all BS rumours especially when England have a list with no Farrell too

When the number of zeroes start trending upwards in the offers, even Saint Patrick will pause to take a look - and money speaks very loudly to rugby league people...

 

[miccloarch]

Calling it early. If the boys do Ka Mate, they smash Ireland to bits. Kapa o Pango reserved for serious teams.

Seriously though, they would stand a better chance if they do Ka Mate from here on in. It's so very All Black and Kiwi to put extra pressure on themselves just based on which haka they perform.

Ireland by 8.

 

[munstermuffin]

When the number of zeroes start trending upwards in the offers, even Saint Patrick will pause to take a look - and money speaks very loudly to rugby league people...

Maybe but England don't want him either which is the other part. More likely to see ROG who is on their list in that role before Faz.

 

[munstermuffin]

Calling it early. If the boys do Ka Mate, they smash Ireland to bits. Kapa o Pango reserved for serious teams.

Seriously though, they would stand a better chance if they do Ka Mate from here on in. It's so very All Black and Kiwi to put extra pressure on themselves just based on which haka they perform.

Ireland by 8.

Ye can do the Siege Of Ennis and the Riverdance too. I think this Irish team is so mentally ready for this RWC the Haka won't intimidate them for once. It has beaten us many times before but think this time we are so driven.
And that is key because when New Zealand come at us and do score a try or 2, and trust me it will happen, we won't break or crumble but will keep ourselves in it.

 

[Zac_ETNZ]

Ireland by 8.

The lasting legacy by Foster is the acceptance by many that the All Blacks losing is the new normal.

 

[Zac_ETNZ]

Maybe but England don't want him either which is the other part. More likely to see ROG who is on their list in that role before Faz.

I should think the RFU will have learned their lesson after Slippery Eddie the Eel. They could do worse than go back to Stu Lancaster now he's had a few more seasons coaching at top level under his belt, rather than seeking short-cuts by pinching coaches from other countries.

 

[SteveAustin794582]

Although I think Ireland are going to win this, here is some history which I think precludes it from being as we expect..

July 2003 - NZ wallop Australia 50-21 in Sydney
Nov 2003 - NZ lose semi-final to Australia 10-22 in Sydney​

Essentially Australia turned a 29 point deficit into a 12 point win, a turnaround of 41 points!!

June 2007 - NZ wallop France 42-11 and 61-10 in Auckland & Wellington
Oct 2007 - NZ lose quarter-final to France 20-18 in Cardiff​

France turnaround 31 and 51 point deficits to win by 2, resulting in 33 and 53 point turnarounds!!

The point of these turnarounds is to highlight the fact that the 35-7 Sept 2023 loss to the Springboks at Twickenham means almost nothing. If the All Blacks have learnt anything from the above and the autumn tours, then they treated the warm-up game exactly how warm-up games should be treated, i.e. as a warm-up.


Next, the 1st game loss to France in this 2023 World Cup...

Sept 2011 - NZ beat France 37-17 in opening game
Oct 2011 - NZ beat France 8-7 in WC final​

France turnarounds around a 20 point deficit to just a 1 point deficit, tight as you can get. Lesson here is that initial pool games are also not a great indicator of knock-out WC games. Again, if the AB's learnt their lesson (a lesson France are owners of), it's that you don't break your necks in the first game.

Therefore, do not read too much into the NZ loss to France three weeks ago.


Finally, the big one, Ireland beating NZ down-under the year before this 2023 WC. The parallel everyone reaches for is England 2003.

Nov 2018 - NZ beat England 16-15 in England
Oct 2019 - NZ lose to England 7-19 in Japan​

A 1 point away win turned into a 12 point neutral ground loss, a turnaround of 13 points.

 

[SteveAustin794582]

Further to this, that 2003 semi loss to Australia, it was evident after 5 minutes that we were going down. Aussie came out and attached our breakdown with two openside flankers and it totally undercut the AB game plan. Had hoped a half-time talk might allow us to change tactic, but two minutes into the 2nd half it was evident that no, we had nothing we could do.

Point being here, the first 5 minutes of Saturday's game might be all we need to see how it will end, for either team.

 

[Zac_ETNZ]

Point being here, the first 5 minutes of Saturday's game might be all we need to see how it will end, for either team.

I'll go along with that. Unless we're 5 points down with 5 minutes to go, and we steal possession off the tiring Irish forwards in our 22....

... and then I hope I don't wake up with a mess on my lap

 

[dirty harry]

All this analysing, consideration and discussion...

You know we are going to see a 3rd minute red card for Tadgh Furlong and the game becomes a dead rubber

 

[Bada-Bing!]

What time's NZ announcing their team?

 

[miccloarch]

Ye can do the Siege Of Ennis and the Riverdance too. I think this Irish team is so mentally ready for this RWC the Haka won't intimidate them for once. It has beaten us many times before but think this time we are so driven.
And that is key because when New Zealand come at us and do score a try or 2, and trust me it will happen, we won't break or crumble but will keep ourselves in it.

Yeah my comments were tongue in cheek. Ireland clear favourites.

Believe it or not, which haka the ABs perform (and how they perform it) reveals more about their mental state than whether or not it will intimidate the opposition.

 

[OwenPB]

All this analysing, consideration and discussion...

You know we are going to see a 3rd minute red card for Tadgh Furlong and the game becomes a dead rubber

Knowing us, World Cups and NZ's pretty terrible recent card record, it's perfectly set up for some random head-contact yellow for us, turned into red that just tips the match for NZ, who play perfectly clean rugby for 80+ minutes!

I'm getting to the calm zone of it is what it is. If we go out, I want it to be because the ABs were just better than us, not to a random card or reffing decision. Not a massive fan of Wayne Barnes, he's extremly picky and very quick to call penalties and card players especially on defense. If you're clean (and the attacking team), no problems.

But, sure, we'll see anyway. Never felt we had as much of a chance as we do now to get through, so that's a massive positive going in.

 

[Zac_ETNZ]

The role of the TMO has become too intrusive and is merging into a 2nd refereeing role that was never intended or defined for them. There is only 1 referee on the pitch, aided by 2 Assistants aka linesmen. It's getting to be ridiculous when the referee seems to be seeking approval from the TMO over the severity of the punishment for the infraction!!

Accidental head clashes is an inherent risk in a contact sport. A collision that starts at the chest or shoulder and slides up onto the head shouldn't be treated the same as a deliberate head-high tackle.
I can go on about TMO interference in the game but you get the picture..

 

[SteveAustin794582]

I think they should also amend the rule so that if the runner is bent at more than 45 degrees then no claim can be made. It's getting ridiculous now, players having to tackle with their fingers.

 

[General Melchett]

The role of the TMO has become too intrusive and is merging into a 2nd refereeing role that was never intended or defined for them. There is only 1 referee on the pitch, aided by 2 Assistants aka linesmen. It's getting to be ridiculous when the referee seems to be seeking approval from the TMO over the severity of the punishment for the infraction!!

Accidental head clashes is an inherent risk in a contact sport. A collision that starts at the chest or shoulder and slides up onto the head shouldn't be treated the same as a deliberate head-high tackle.
I can go on about TMO interference in the game but you get the picture..

I don't see it that way at all. The ref has the weight of the world on his shoulders (managing the game, coaching players who are constantly offside (rightly or wrongly), foul play checks etc.) and the TMO relieves much of that pressure and acts as his eyes and ears (well eyes mainly). The competence of refs and TMOs is another issue but I think the principle of the TMO acting as a second pair of eyes with the benefit of technology/replays in order to take some of the burden away from the ref is a sound one. More things being spotted improves on field decision making which increases the chances of a fair end result. I also think the TMO acts as a deterrent for foul play.