I've been picking England all along, but defensively they were less than I expected against Oz and their pack didnt boss that fixture in the manner they should have (i.e. comprehensively). As I'd been warned, Daly didnt look great under pressure. However, I seem to be on my own in thinking the Wallabies actually played pretty well in that match. Excellent ball retention and genuine cutting edge. I think they would have posed any defence some questions in that first 50mins. Plus England are scoring from open play by having at least one centre who can pass the ball.
I also read little to nothing into the AB performance against Ireland just as I read nothing into Ireland's similarly trouble free win against Scotland. If your opponent doesn't turn up then you good luck evaluating how you played. Ireland undoubtably didnt turn up, conceded early soft tries and had zero self belief after the first 20mins because everyone knows they cannot chase games with Schmidts tactics. We all know the ABs are unparalleled in ball handling from 1-15, that is nothing new. But I really saw nothing in their performance to change my evaluation that they are one of the best teams here rather than clearly THE best team. I still have doubts about their ability to create tries if they run up against a decent defence on a good day.
Before the quarters I would have England by 10-13, but depending on selection I'll probably narrow that down to within one score given my concerns about England's defence.
Happily, I think this will be a very entertaining fixture that fans of both sides can be proud of. It is very nice to see teams in the knockout phase attempt to score tries through open play, that's something I'll cheer every time as a neutral.