[RWC2019][Semi-Final 1] England vs. New Zealand (26/10/2019)

[MarkyH]

Did Daly win any high balls?

FB bread and butter imo.

Not really in the discussion, the game wasn't about high balls and iirc only spilt one, and that's his first in a while.

Bread and butter, so we should pick a pure scrummaging front row, lineout optoins only in the second row? That's there bread and butter? The game really isn't that simple and to think so that's very naive. Would we would be better with Brown at FB as his bread and butter game is better?? Ignoring the obvious plan that EJ has to bring Daly into the line so many times.

I'm no Daly fanboy, and yes would swap him round with Watson, but surely people can see what the plan is with Daly, and it actually works.

 

[HERSH_606er]

Yes Daly offers some go forward but he isn't doing well at that either, against NZ we can't afford to carry anyone.

Would love to be proved wrong and Daly wins it for us. I will eat my hat.

 

[ncurd]

This is of course a different game and I can't see England winning if they only have 36% possession

I also don't expect the AB's to retain the ball every time we kick it in their own half. Part of the possession stat is Aus was suicidal in their retention policy.

I expect the AB's to win but not comfortably and I think it will go to the 80th minute. Key for me is how much will they exploit Daly's clear defensive frailties but I also believe we have the tools to beat any side.


My only issue is I'm out for the day on Saturday and I don't have a clear feasible way to watch the match or avoid it until I get home. Which is a bit of a ****.

 

[RugbyMarvel]

Eddie Jones has already mentioned that NZs game is based on their lineout prowess, with 3 specialist jumpers in locks + Reed. NZ retain their ball and then if they managed to steal opposition, can really turn the screw with counter attacking rugby. In the 1/4, as soon as O'Mahoney stole a lineout, Cane was taken off and not replaced by Todd but by Barrett, giving them 4 options...

Currently, England field two specialist line out options in Itoje plus Kruis or Lawes. Curry is an option but he's not a specialist. He got picked off once against Aus.

I'm certain that Itoje and Kruis will start at the weekend and I would bet that EJ starts Lawes at 6, moving Curry to 7 and Underhill to bench. I wouldn't be shocked if the bench had two back row options on it. He can then load the lineout for the first 50 min with 3 specialist jumpers plus Curry, and then load up the back row for the last 30 in an effort to steal ball at the breakdown.

If England get parity at the lineout, they'll survive the onslaught of the NZ kicking game, which is more territorial than most other nations (not reliant on Murray box kicks for Ire / kick to compete etc).

I think England by 2.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

In the last two world cups NZ made tough work of their games after they hammered the shite out of teams that many thought would beat them (Final and semi respectively) I could see it being similar here but I still expect them to scrape the win.

England looked great against Australia and they seem to be really enjoying themselves on the pitch but this is the first time they'll be playing a team who's not going to gift them multiple try scoring opportunities since Wales in the 6n (or maybe one of the warm ups) and I think that'll be just enough for NZ to pull through. If England can score ten or more relatively easy points I'd make this a 50/50 but NZ can and will play boring to win if they have to and I reckon we'll see it here. Which would be disappointing because these are the best two teams in Japan in my opinion with the potential to play out an instant classic.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

My main worries are how often for a long time we have been caught it by a ball that goes wide fast and never seem to learn from it, even as a team does it multiple times in the same game. Getting caught out by the same move multiple times implies the players aren't defending based on what they see but instead following a pattern. New Zealand will exploit that.

Also against Australia we made zero effort to slow the ball down. It didn't cost us there but letting nz dictate the pace of the game is a very very stupid thing to do and I hope we don't do it.

 

[Kapa O Pango]

Eddie Jones is a mastermind

 

[TRF_Olyy]

If we start Lawes at 6 we deserve to get knocked out tbh

 

[ncurd]

If we start Lawes at 6 we deserve to get knocked out tbh

Has to be Cunderhill

In all honesty, I'd bring Ford back in to start I wanna go off on a flyer as we did in November and then tighten up if the game reqiures it. We've proven they can caught flatfooted at the start.

The other is Kruis for Lawes/Itoje, I don't really understand why Kruis isn't the first lock on the teamsheet with what he bring to the set piece.

 

[Yoshimitsu]

My main worries are how often for a long time we have been caught it by a ball that goes wide fast and never seem to learn from it, even as a team does it multiple times in the same game. Getting caught out by the same move multiple times implies the players aren't defending based on what they see but instead following a pattern. New Zealand will exploit that.

Also against Australia we made zero effort to slow the ball down. It didn't cost us there but letting nz dictate the pace of the game is a very very stupid thing to do and I hope we don't do it.

I can't remember the exact game but this is the stuff nightmares are made of. I remember one game in particular where our defensive system appeared to be to narrow up as much as humanly possible leaving a then prime Julian Savea running against Marland Yarde with plenty of space.... Worse still, having seen the All Blacks exploit that, England did nothing whatsoever to remedy it. We got roasted as a result.

I suspect Eddie is more astute and won't allow that to happen. I reckon we'll know within the first 10 minutes how we're going to go. If we insist on kicking the ball up the middle to their back 3 I suspect we're in for a spanking. I believe our best bet is to frustrate and suffocate and hopefully build enough pressure that even these All Blacks will begin to crack. By no means easy, but not impossible. If the All Blacks lead by 2 clear scores at any point in the match we're stuffed. As soon as they are in that position they'll simply invite teams to play on to them and hit on the counter.

 

[Which Tyler]

Every rose has it's thorn


Unfortunately, it may be a thorn in our own side.

 

[Jimbo]

Semi Final score flattered England to b fait, couple tries on the counter, another from an intercept.
I've seen nothing from their attacking play this entire tournament that would trouble the AB's.
Barring a red card or a couple yellows, I think the AB's win comfortably.

I am slightly struggling with that logic a fair chunk of NZ points come from opposition mistakes and turn over ball but that's the ABs attacking invention, another team does it and they lack attacking capacity and the score line flatters, sounds distinctly like double standards to me...

 

[ncurd]

I am slightly struggling with that logic a fair chunk of NZ points come from opposition mistakes and turn over ball but that's the ABs attacking invention, another team does it and they lack attacking capacity and the score line flatters, sounds distinctly like double standards to me...

Yeah Ireland and Aus were equally ****, if anything Ireland was worse at least Aus tried to offer up something in attack....

I think you can read way too much in both QF performances, they both came across poor opposition and dispatched them with ease.

 

[Jakedood]

SO a few things that cross my mind

1. People reference possession stats v Australia, but when one team is prepared to kick and pressure with defense and the other blindly refuses to do so, then it's always going to be lop sided in that stat, and not something we'll see vs the all-blacks
2. Tuilagi was running against some serious bulk on Saturday, and I wonder if he'll be even more effective this week, especially if they stick with ALB at 12. Doesnt have to be 10 yard carries, but that extra couple of metres across the gain line makes all the difference
3. The lineout was an issue last time out in Second half for England against NZ, however the lineout calling was as much a factor, overusing the front jumper and no real movement at the start of the second half. George's darts are perhaps the best in world rugby, and I've a feeling England will be much much more solid from that platform this time around, as well as if (hopefully) Kruis starts, we'll see the ballast at scrum time that just doesn't happen with Lawes
4. How bloody good did Watson and May look at the weekend? Watson in particular was orgasmically good
5. People talk about Daly fielding bombs, but we find these days that most contestable kicks are box kicks and are the purview of the wingers in the sidelines. I've also read a Charlie Morgan article highlighting how England had their wingers and SH up far more in the line during the weekend, and left Daly with acres more space to cover, in order to offset Australia's strength in the wide channels. On top of this, it should be noted how often Daly is the man out the back of a tuilagi or slade to bring the wings into the game and create overlaps, and he does it so effortlessly, he's a key cog in the attacking patters of England
6. Ireland's poor performance for me stemmed from an inability to stop big forwards on the gain line, and was poor front up tackling. England will be much stronger in this regard, and I'd expect as a result for there to be far fewer holes, and hopefully (if they commit to a few rucks this week) slower All black ball

 

[duncanb]

Both teams playing well both can win it.
My one concern for us is Dalys tackling or lack of it.
Other than that no real weaknesses whoever's got the whistle may have fun at breakdown as it could be brutal here.
NZ by -3. from the head Eng by 10 from the heart.
Both will stick out quality 23s

 

[Jimbo]

Yeah Ireland and Aus were equally ****, if anything Ireland was worse at least Aus tried to offer up something in attack....

I think you can read way too much in both QF performances, they both came across poor opposition and dispatched them with ease.

I agree entirely I don't think either QFs were real indicators, just don't think u can say one flattered due to mistakes when NZ historically are so clinical at punishing mistakes, all this said I don't think England will win unfortunately but if they get there game right and make minimal mistakes they have a descent chance.

I also think if there is one opposition that would concern NZ it probably is England single point last time (slightly controversial lack of several pens in the last 5 minutes last time IMO), both teams have got considerably better since...

 

[Which Tyler]

On paper, it ought to be close, with a victory to NZ by >7

In reality though England have done what's necessary, but haven't been great.
The tight 5 + flankers are fine, complete with options (but please no Lawes at 6).
Billy is struggling for form; and is yet to find it - he's not been bad, but we need world class performances from our world class players - and he hasn't shown it yet.

Then we get to our more dodgy players. Youngs is Youngs is Youngs, and we all know about that. Then we don't know what our best midfield is, either in attack or defence. At the back, we've a FB who's a world class player, with dodgy form, and is unconvincing at the role of FB.
In the backs we need to maximise both our attack and defence. Which means that Ford has to start, and may mean that Joseph has to start. Then it's a choice of Farrell or Manu for IC - which is a genuinely tough call to make, Farrell is probably the better IC, but Manu is definitely the better centre. We would probably go with Ford Farrel Manu, and leave JJ on the bench, but it feels wrong to have our defensive lynchpin benching (but then, it also feels wrong to bench Manu, whilst captain iceman is undroppable for no obvious reason). Slade needs to watch from the stands - sorry, this RWC came a month too early for him, and he's been a real weak point, and doesn't have enough credit in the bank to overcome his form.
If we want a world class performance from Daly, we have to play him on the wing or bring him off the bench. The ABs will exploit his position, his head-on defence and his aerial abilities like no-one else in rugby; but his versatility should mean that he and Watson can swap about as the play dictates anyway (though we've yet to really see this). Watson's no as good at playing rugby as Daly, but he is better at playing FB.

MVunipola, George, Sinkler
Itoje, Kruis
Curry, BVunipola (8), Underhill

Youngs, Ford
Farrell, Tuilagi
May, Watson (15), Daly

Marler, LCD, Cole, Lawes, Wilson
Heinz, Joseph, Nowell/Coka

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I am slightly struggling with that logic a fair chunk of NZ points come from opposition mistakes and turn over ball but that's the ABs attacking invention, another team does it and they lack attacking capacity and the score line flatters, sounds distinctly like double standards to me...

it's because when NZ get turnover ball they are so much more clinical at turning it into 7 points from it. Well that's how it appears to me when I I watch them. It would be interesting to see the stats on this this RWC.

The speed with which they can get the ball wide either through the hands or this RWC kicking it to the wings, which has added another dimension to get around rush defences, especially if the opposition defend narrow.

And I am Not talking about intercept tries here. Other teams get turnover ball from open play they tend set up another ruck phase or kick it.

 

[Reiser99]

I think at this level is you think that a team will play the same way against two different opposing teams then it's very naive. NZ will play differently and so will England. Maybe not completely differently, but they certainly won't play the same. I still don't think England have been really pushed and tbh apart from the first game neither have NZ. NZ are still favourites for me, but I can see a close contest and England certainly have an excellent opportunity to win.

 

[james5000]

I think we need to talk about this more....

For the statistically minded boys and girls among us...

NZs not so recent record against England is nothing short of remarkable...

Since after the 03 world cup we have played 16 times and lost just 1...

Why does that 1 loss seem the most vivid?

I suppose England must be due another win LOL