[RWC2019][Semi-Final 1] England vs. New Zealand (26/10/2019)

[TRF_Olyy]

How can you get so triggered by people predicting a NZ win

 

[ncurd]

I think we need to talk about this more....

For the statistically minded boys and girls among us...

NZs not so recent record against England is nothing short of remarkable...

Since after the 03 world cup we have played 16 times and lost just 1...

Why does that 1 loss seem the most vivid?

I suppose England must be due another win LOL

They've played each other once over the past 4 years (the only time frame that really matter) and there was a 1 point difference.

Trying to look at the form of results between these two teams is completely devoid of value they haven't played each other enough in recent years.

 

[ncurd]

How can you get so triggered by people predicting a NZ win

Because people aren't predicting NZ will steamroller England and they might actually have a good chance.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I think we need to talk about this more....

For the statistically minded boys and girls among us...

NZs not so recent record against England is nothing short of remarkable...

Since after the 03 world cup we have played 16 times and lost just 1...

Why does that 1 loss seem the most vivid?

I suppose England must be due another win LOL

We usually win once a decade against the ABs. The 2000s being the exception.

Few experienced England watchers on here are picking us to win on Saturday, but that is why we are all excited to watch what happens because that is sport and anything can happen on the day.

 

[HERSH_606er]

Hope Farrell has his kicking boots on like he did vs Aus.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I think we need to talk about this more....

For the statistically minded boys and girls among us...

NZs not so recent record against England is nothing short of remarkable...

Since after the 03 world cup we have played 16 times and lost just 1...

Why does that 1 loss seem the most vivid?

I suppose England must be due another win LOL

I think this is huge, trying to get your first win against NZ in 7 years isn't easy at any time, nevermind a world cup. France did it in 2007 so it can be done but they had a draw in 02 and plenty of wins to remember in the mid to late 90s, they were also at home. Every mental advantage is with NZ going into this game, none of England's players have ever played a world cup semi, most haven't beaten NZ.

I said last week NZ's best chance to lose is against Ireland, I hope I'm proven right and NZ win their next two games by 40+, but that's obviously not going to happen... I still strongly doubt they'll lose, but this is where I see a team putting a shadow of doubt and that them winning the final isn't a foregone conclusion! They'll win the final easier than this one though in my opinion.

 

[Goodey]

SO a few things that cross my mind

1. People reference possession stats v Australia, but when one team is prepared to kick and pressure with defense and the other blindly refuses to do so, then it's always going to be lop sided in that stat, and not something we'll see vs the all-blacks
2. Tuilagi was running against some serious bulk on Saturday, and I wonder if he'll be even more effective this week, especially if they stick with ALB at 12. Doesnt have to be 10 yard carries, but that extra couple of metres across the gain line makes all the difference
3. The lineout was an issue last time out in Second half for England against NZ, however the lineout calling was as much a factor, overusing the front jumper and no real movement at the start of the second half. George's darts are perhaps the best in world rugby, and I've a feeling England will be much much more solid from that platform this time around, as well as if (hopefully) Kruis starts, we'll see the ballast at scrum time that just doesn't happen with Lawes
4. How bloody good did Watson and May look at the weekend? Watson in particular was orgasmically good
5. People talk about Daly fielding bombs, but we find these days that most contestable kicks are box kicks and are the purview of the wingers in the sidelines. I've also read a Charlie Morgan article highlighting how England had their wingers and SH up far more in the line during the weekend, and left Daly with acres more space to cover, in order to offset Australia's strength in the wide channels. On top of this, it should be noted how often Daly is the man out the back of a tuilagi or slade to bring the wings into the game and create overlaps, and he does it so effortlessly, he's a key cog in the attacking patters of England
6. Ireland's poor performance for me stemmed from an inability to stop big forwards on the gain line, and was poor front up tackling. England will be much stronger in this regard, and I'd expect as a result for there to be far fewer holes, and hopefully (if they commit to a few rucks this week) slower All black ball

yup yup yup, this is all spot on

 

[Cooper]

Exciting game! Got some nice nerves to this one, I've always considered England the biggest NH threat over the years. Usually a very dangerous team with the ability to beat us. Eddie has played this world cup nicely, I think he's got the team peaking at the right time of the tournament. It should be a cracker.

-But, I think a number of things will have to go their way to beat us this time. After watching the Aussie game, I felt the scoreline flattered England to an extent, they scored some nice tries, but Australia were error prone, more so than the Irish who were also error prone.
-Our attacking formations have finally kicked in and we're humming. Our outside backs are in great form, Reece, Bridge and Beaudy, with 4 great centres to choose from, the versatility to our backline play is going to yield tries and be too clinical for England to keep the scoreline too low, so they will need to be scoring tries too.
-Our forwards have shown up, the backrow is performing great with Cane back and Ardie is playing like a man possessed, Kieren Read's form is undeniable with his new role in the central pod. Brodie, Whitelock and S.Barrett are 3 of the best locks in the world, Lawes and Itoje have a mammoth job to do on them!!


-We've wobbled a little bit in the front row. If I were England I'd be targeting the scrum, but their scrum wasn't too flash vs Aussie, particularly Sinkler, so they may not be able to really have a go at a minor weakness for us (Ta'avao needs to improve).
-Daly didn't have a particularly good game vs the Aussies. England will need every player firing to get over the line, no performances like what Daly coughed up. I've been impressed with Farrell though.
-England will have to get off to a flier, important they start the game well, if we get an early strong lead it could be a long day at the office. They need an early try or points on the board to build that confidence and belief.

Can't wait!! I'm really intrigued to see who Steve goes with as the centre pairing for this game after Goodhue's great shift vs Ireland.

 

[MarkyH]

5. People talk about Daly fielding bombs, but we find these days that most contestable kicks are box kicks and are the purview of the wingers in the sidelines. I've also read a Charlie Morgan article highlighting how England had their wingers and SH up far more in the line during the weekend, and left Daly with acres more space to cover, in order to offset Australia's strength in the wide channels. On top of this, it should be noted how often Daly is the man out the back of a tuilagi or slade to bring the wings into the game and create overlaps, and he does it so effortlessly, he's a key cog in the attacking patters of England

This is the point I tried to make, but I'm less good at that innit. Cheers

 

[Jakedood]

One other thing is that, as a personal lineout lover, I've noticed England haven't always competed in them, especially in the first 20 minutes of a game. They'll need to go in hard from the get go, as it'll be THE crucial platform this weekend, and you can guarantee the all blacks have the weapons and ability to turn over at least 1 or 2 of England's lineouts

 

[Lé Ddanno]

@Cooper You, I like you.

 

[Reiser99]

Exciting game! Got some nice nerves to this one, I've always considered England the biggest NH threat over the years. Usually a very dangerous team with the ability to beat us. Eddie has played this world cup nicely, I think he's got the team peaking at the right time of the tournament. It should be a cracker.

-But, I think a number of things will have to go their way to beat us this time. After watching the Aussie game, I felt the scoreline flattered England to an extent, they scored some nice tries, but Australia were error prone, more so than the Irish who were also error prone.
-Our attacking formations have finally kicked in and we're humming. Our outside backs are in great form, Reece, Bridge and Beaudy, with 4 great centres to choose from, the versatility to our backline play is going to yield tries and be too clinical for England to keep the scoreline too low, so they will need to be scoring tries too.
-Our forwards have shown up, the backrow is performing great with Cane back and Ardie is playing like a man possessed, Kieren Read's form is undeniable with his new role in the central pod. Brodie, Whitelock and S.Barrett are 3 of the best locks in the world, Lawes and Itoje have a mammoth job to do on them!!


-We've wobbled a little bit in the front row. If I were England I'd be targeting the scrum, but their scrum wasn't too flash vs Aussie, particularly Sinkler, so they may not be able to really have a go at a minor weakness for us (Ta'avao needs to improve).
-Daly didn't have a particularly good game vs the Aussies. England will need every player firing to get over the line, no performances like what Daly coughed up. I've been impressed with Farrell though.
-England will have to get off to a flier, important they start the game well, if we get an early strong lead it could be a long day at the office. They need an early try or points on the board to build that confidence and belief.

Can't wait!! I'm really intrigued to see who Steve goes with as the centre pairing for this game after Goodhue's great shift vs Ireland.

I can't say I disagree with your points, more one of your conclusions. You felt the score flattered England, fair enough. However by the same token when you say your attacking formations finally kicked in and we're humming, I would say they looked better because of terrible Irish defending. Now I do think NZ attack looked good on Saturday, but they also were able to play with a lot of freedom they won't get against England. As I've said I think NZ are favourites, but I wouldn't read as much into the quarterfinal performance as you do because of the way the Irish played.

 

[Mr Ruggleby]

Then it's a choice of Farrell or Manu for IC - which is a genuinely tough call to make, Farrell is probably the better IC, but Manu is definitely the better centre. We would probably go with Ford Farrel Manu, and leave JJ on the bench, but it feels wrong to have our defensive lynchpin benching (but then, it also feels wrong to bench Manu, whilst captain iceman is undroppable for no obvious reason).

How are you still salty about Farrell this far into the tournament? Ford was excellent in the pool and good when he came on vs Aus, but the tactic to start Farrell clearly worked. You claim there is no obvious reason for not dropping Farrell, but if you've followed the development of the team at all over the last few years you should know that:

- Farrell is the Captain, dropping the Captain for a semi-final is not exactly best practice.
- He is the driving force behind the attacking strategy on the training pitch (along with Ford) and executing it on the pitch.
- He is the leader of the defensive line and the loudest voice/motivator/organizer whenever the team defends (you can literally hear him on the ref mic constantly).
- He is the first choice goal kicker and has been one of the world's best under pressure at international level and major finals (aside from when he took the head knock against Argentina).
- Ford has been good too, but he doesn't have the same presence as Farrell within this team, he cannot lead from the front in the same way and he will always be a bit of a liability in defense. He is a fantastic front-foot player and tactical kicker, which is why there is a great case for starting him alongside Farrell, but there is no strong argument for starting him INSTEAD of Farrell.

At this point of a world cup cycle, one would think that fans should get behind the team (and arguably its most pivotal figure) rather than suggest sweeping changes - that are simply never going to happen and would be terrible decisions - just to satisfy a long-held vendetta against Faz.

I'll leave you with a favourite quote of mine: A man who cannot change his mind, cannot change anything

 

[donmcdazzle]

I can't say I disagree with your points, more one of your conclusions. You felt the score flattered England, fair enough. However by the same token when you say your attacking formations finally kicked in and we're humming, I would say they looked better because of terrible Irish defending. Now I do think NZ attack looked good on Saturday, but they also were able to play with a lot of freedom they won't get against England. As I've said I think NZ are favourites, but I wouldn't read as much into the quarterfinal performance as you do because of the way the Irish played.

Tend to agree. I reckon Aus played both better and worse than Ireland. Better in that they actually strung a few phases together and put England under a little bit of pressure (which England handled pretty well). And worse because of the aforementioned suicidal game plan of running everything.

The ABs looked good and kind of smashed Ireland around, but yeah they didn't exactly offer much of a threat with the ball or do anything to trouble us.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I can't say I disagree with your points, more one of your conclusions. You felt the score flattered England, fair enough. However by the same token when you say your attacking formations finally kicked in and we're humming, I would say they looked better because of terrible Irish defending. Now I do think NZ attack looked good on Saturday, but they also were able to play with a lot of freedom they won't get against England. As I've said I think NZ are favourites, but I wouldn't read as much into the quarterfinal performance as you do because of the way the Irish played.

I think the one, and possibly minor difference here, is that NZ created most of their own scoring opportunities, Barrett's breakaway aside. Admittedly my memory is a bit hazy but England got two intercept tries and at least ten points (although I have a feeling it's more that's still more than half their points and the exact amount they won by) from brain dead Aussie exits, benefitting massively off needless, if not unforced, Australian errors.

Ireland were equally horrible, but they threw the ball away in NZ's half most of the time and NZ went through the phases and created their opportunities from there. As a result Ireland were dead after 15 minutes without even being given a shot (I think NZ stepped off the gas in attack when they went 20 ahead too) whereas Australia were still in the game early in the second half. It was the same in the 5 minutes that won the SA game, NZ created their chances and scored, SA could really do sweet fa about it.

Now that's not to say NZ can't be contained, that have been three times in the last two and a half years, but it's going to need England to step up to a level or two higher than SA, the Lions or 2018 Ireland, I just can't see it. Which is why I think they're going to need to score a few relatively easy points, which to be fair isn't impossible v NZ.

I don't think it's worth debating who were worse, Australia or Ireland, neither were ever going to challenge, but NZ's was the performance of the quarter finals for sure.

 

[Macsen]

I can't help feel that we spent all of last week talking up Ireland's chances only for them to get completely steamrolled, and we're spending this week talking up England's chances only for the same thing to happen again...

I think England will start brightly however, perhaps scoring an early try as they seem to do quite consistently. They will seem to have NZ under the kosh with the rush defence. Then there will be a sloppy pass and/or England will switch off for 10 seconds and it'll be 14-10 to NZ and Eng will be chasing the game for the next 60 minutes.

From Engand's POV I think they should have played NZ a few more times in the last four years in the hope of beating them at least once for confidence and just to get used to playing at seventh gear and with 100% concentration all match which is what will be required here. Nothing in NH rugby or playing historically weak Aus and SA teams will have prepared them for what is needed to win a World Cup semi-final v NZ.

 

[HERSH_606er]

NZ didn't want to play England (for the price on offer) and the RFU didn't want to pay for them to come Macsen.

I can't see Francis getting away with boring in at the scrum this weekend vs SA, I guess we all have our own worries.

 

[MarkyH]

I can't help feel that we spent all of last week talking up Ireland's chances only for them to get completely steamrolled, and we're spending this week talking up England's chances only for the same thing to happen again...

I think England will start brightly however, perhaps scoring an early try as they seem to do quite consistently. They will seem to have NZ under the kosh with the rush defence. Then there will be a sloppy pass and/or England will switch off for 10 seconds and it'll be 14-10 to NZ and Eng will be chasing the game for the next 60 minutes.

From Engand's POV I think they should have played NZ a few more times in the last four years in the hope of beating them at least once for confidence and just to get used to playing at seventh gear and with 100% concentration all match which is what will be required here. Nothing in NH rugby or playing historically weak Aus and SA teams will have prepared them for what is needed to win a World Cup semi-final v NZ.

Errrr, that's not really happening in this thread. Unless you mean when people say 'England can win' but most of us are more that aware that we are the underdogs here. It's possible, but I don't think we're really talking England up in this thread..... yet

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Errrr, that's not really happening in this thread. Unless you mean when people say 'England can win' but most of us are more that aware that we are the underdogs here. It's possible, but I don't think we're really talking England up in this thread..... yet

To be fair, that's what the Kiwis think talking yourself up is! Last week most of us were accused of the same for saying we're heavy underdogs but if X, y and z happened we could win! I said multiple times that I thought we'd get hammered, but the caveat is enough to upset them!

Edit: not all of course, the seemingly loud minority.

 

[Cooper]

I think the one, and possibly minor difference here, is that NZ created most of their own scoring opportunities, Barrett's breakaway aside. Admittedly my memory is a bit hazy but England got two intercept tries and at least ten points (although I have a feeling it's more that's still more than half their points and the exact amount they won by) from brain dead Aussie exits, benefitting massively off needless, if not unforced, Australian errors.

Ireland were equally horrible, but they threw the ball away in NZ's half most of the time and NZ went through the phases and created their opportunities from there. As a result Ireland were dead after 15 minutes without even being given a shot (I think NZ stepped off the gas in attack when they went 20 ahead too) whereas Australia were still in the game early in the second half. It was the same in the 5 minutes that won the SA game, NZ created their chances and scored, SA could really do sweet fa about it.

Now that's not to say NZ can't be contained, that have been three times in the last two and a half years, but it's going to need England to step up to a level or two higher than SA, the Lions or 2018 Ireland, I just can't see it. Which is why I think they're going to need to score a few relatively easy points, which to be fair isn't impossible v NZ.

I don't think it's worth debating who were worse, Australia or Ireland, neither were ever going to challenge, but NZ's was the performance of the quarter finals for sure.

That's is how I felt about the two games and you've elaborated on it really well.

England do at least have form on their side to work with, but our new attacking formations have been developed so close to the world cup, it will take longer than a week for Eddie Jones (or any other coach) to find a way to genuinely contain us. So I don't think that will be the game plan from Eddie, there's simply just not enough time for a side to figure out how to completely stifle us offensively. England will need to match us on attack to have a shot at winning this game. England have shown recently that they can score plenty tries, England have looked their best when they play aggressive and offensively and I can see Eddie Jones continuing that, and so he should as it's England's best chance.