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[RWC2019][Quarter-Final 2] New Zealand vs. Ireland (19/10/2019)

Its crazy, for months I've been saying the AB's best chance to win the WC is to make bold selections and blood new talent, even in WC year.
But to see it actually happen still makes me nervous.
The battle between NZ and Ireland has been an interesting one over the last few years, Sure Ireland have the 2 wins. But counting the fact none of the last 4 games have been in NZ and they have all been towards the end of the AB's test season when performances start to drop off a bit. The last game in NZ at a better time of the year the All Blacks layed on a thrashing.
The biggest factor is that this AB's side is vastly different to typical All Black sides over the last couple of years. The whole structure has changed, the selectors have made bold changes in both selection and play-style.
I will say this, I think Goodhue is a serious talent and he's going to be a long time AB. But in my opinion he has not found his best since his last injury, his season has been a bit stop-start. I can only imagine they are really liking how he is going at training and also that they see SBW's best role is to come off the bench when the game is a bit more settled - because to me the form midfielders have been ALB and SBW.
It's so bold to pick goodhue, it would be so easy to pick Crotty. He's in form, he has truck loads of experience and he's ultra reliable. Again, they must love what Jack is doing on the training park.
Interesting to see Bender lose out to Jordie. Jordie has been playing very well and the selectors have been talking him up. But I look at how Ben performed off the bench against south africa, he added some real cut to the attack late in the game. Without a doubt Jordies biggest strength is in his high ball skills. One has to think that is a major factor in the selection. Kinda gutted Bender has missed out... he is a bit of a national treasure.
It's also interesting that we have Todd on the bench. I guess he was the most likely but things were a bit up in the air with Brodie on a comeback and Tuipulotu playing well.
Also see that Taylor is starting with Coles on the bench, I actually think this is a good move. Both are world class but it may just be that Codie's game is better suited to starting right now.
 
Its crazy, for months I've been saying the AB's best chance to win the WC is to make bold selections and blood new talent, even in WC year.
But to see it actually happen still makes me nervous.
The battle between NZ and Ireland has been an interesting one over the last few years, Sure Ireland have the 2 wins. But counting the fact none of the last 4 games have been in NZ and they have all been towards the end of the AB's test season when performances start to drop off a bit. The last game in NZ at a better time of the year the All Blacks layed on a thrashing.
The biggest factor is that this AB's side is vastly different to typical All Black sides over the last couple of years. The whole structure has changed, the selectors have made bold changes in both selection and play-style.
I will say this, I think Goodhue is a serious talent and he's going to be a long time AB. But in my opinion he has not found his best since his last injury, his season has been a bit stop-start. I can only imagine they are really liking how he is going at training and also that they see SBW's best role is to come off the bench when the game is a bit more settled - because to me the form midfielders have been ALB and SBW.
It's so bold to pick goodhue, it would be so easy to pick Crotty. He's in form, he has truck loads of experience and he's ultra reliable. Again, they must love what Jack is doing on the training park.
Interesting to see Bender lose out to Jordie. Jordie has been playing very well and the selectors have been talking him up. But I look at how Ben performed off the bench against south africa, he added some real cut to the attack late in the game. Without a doubt Jordies biggest strength is in his high ball skills. One has to think that is a major factor in the selection. Kinda gutted Bender has missed out... he is a bit of a national treasure.
It's also interesting that we have Todd on the bench. I guess he was the most likely but things were a bit up in the air with Brodie on a comeback and Tuipulotu playing well.
Also see that Taylor is starting with Coles on the bench, I actually think this is a good move. Both are world class but it may just be that Codie's game is better suited to starting right now.

I'm not sure I follow the "end of a long season" stuff, hasn't stopped us winning grand slams in the past. Our guys were fired up for Dublin last year and just got beaten by the better team. In saying all of that, it is a neutral ground, our guys should be pretty fresh.

Jordie is an interesting one eh. Coaches seem to really love him. Smith is clearly not where he was a year or two ago, but like you, I still like him in the 23.

I haven't been convinced at all with Goodhue - he must be doing plenty in training... this combo didn't look that good against Namibia in my opinion.
 
I'm not sure I follow the "end of a long season" stuff, hasn't stopped us winning grand slams in the past. Our guys were fired up for Dublin last year and just got beaten by the better team. In saying all of that, it is a neutral ground, our guys should be pretty fresh.

Jordie is an interesting one eh. Coaches seem to really love him. Smith is clearly not where he was a year or two ago, but like you, I still like him in the 23.

I haven't been convinced at all with Goodhue - he must be doing plenty in training... this combo didn't look that good against Namibia in my opinion.
its hard to get a feel for exactly where ben smith is when hes not getting regular game time let alone starts
 
Crotty
Bender
Like coles finishing the game
Definitely have Todd than another bruiser
Gotta keep tackles down
 
I'm not sure I follow the "end of a long season" stuff, hasn't stopped us winning grand slams in the past. Our guys were fired up for Dublin last year and just got beaten by the better team. In saying all of that, it is a neutral ground, our guys should be pretty fresh.

Jordie is an interesting one eh. Coaches seem to really love him. Smith is clearly not where he was a year or two ago, but like you, I still like him in the 23.

I haven't been convinced at all with Goodhue - he must be doing plenty in training... this combo didn't look that good against Namibia in my opinion.

its simple really Ireland have improved to the point where they are a challenge for us away from home at the end of the season, but its still generally when the AB's are most vulnerable
 
I am surprised Crotty wasn't picked at 12. For me He's the glue in the AB's midfield and gets others around him play better. It's almost as though Hansen is phasing out the old guard for the ABs in this World Cup.

What time do Ireland announce their line up?
 
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The oracle has a message,

Oracle: NZ to win by more than 15 points
Guess thats gonna be my Superbru prediction then.
 
And Australia pumped NZ and that was an actual test match unlike Eng v Ire... Last world cup no one would have batted an eye if SA said they still think they're the best and can win the world cup after losing to Japan but because it's Ireland it's different even though SA weren't as successful between 2012 and 2015 as Ireland were between 2016 and 2019. It's absolutely the mindset you would expect a team to have in a world cup to be in like.

Anyway, I'm fairly sure your either hunting for a rise or so blinkered that you can't fathom a team other than NZ thinking they're good, either way it's not worth continuing this further.
Having the beli
And Australia pumped NZ and that was an actual test match unlike Eng v Ire... Last world cup no one would have batted an eye if SA said they still think they're the best and can win the world cup after losing to Japan but because it's Ireland it's different even though SA weren't as successful between 2012 and 2015 as Ireland were between 2016 and 2019. It's absolutely the mindset you would expect a team to have in a world cup to be in like.

Anyway, I'm fairly sure your either hunting for a rise or so blinkered that you can't fathom a team other than NZ thinking they're good, either way it's not worth continuing this further.
It was a test match, stop being in denial.

I am not surprised by the Irish confidence though.

Imagine how big their heads would be if they had 3 world cups in the cabinet.

Can't even beat Japan and they are the greatest.

Living off the 2 out of 3, probably still live off it when it's 2 out of 20 lol
 
GOODHUE THE MULLET MAN

The matchday 23 is as follows (Test caps in brackets):



1: Joe Moody (43)
2: Codie Taylor (48)
3: Nepo Laulala (23)
4: Brodie Retallick (78)
5: Samuel Whitelock (115)
6: Ardie Savea (42)
7: Sam Cane (65)
8: Kieran Read - captain (124)
9: Aaron Smith (89)
10: Richie Mo'unga (14)
11: George Bridge (7)
12: Anton Lienert-Brown (40)
13: Jack Goodhue (11)
14: Sevu Reece (5)
15: Beauden Barrett (80)



16 Dane Coles (66)
17: Ofa Tuungafasi (33)
18: Angus Ta'avao (11)
19: Scott Barrett (33)
20: Matt Todd (23)
21: T J Perenara (62)
22: Sonny Bill Williams (55)
23: Jordie Barrett (14)
 
Evening gentlemen, I'm actually going to be a little negative here and suggest our chances of winning this game have gone from 70/30 to now a 50/50 after dropping 2 of the main leadership group.

Crotty is our 1# midfield general. Dropping Crotty and moving ALB to 12 takes 10% of our chances. ALB has proved this season he's playing sensational rugby once again at 13 (after a few seasons of being quieter than usual) - Goodhue is green, been injured and still not up to scratch with the new offense system, SBW should've even started ahead of him, dropping Crotty actually mystifies me and suggests to me Steve is still insecure about our 1st XV after I thought he had originally settled after the Aussie and SA games.

Dropping Bender for Jordie - This takes another 10% of our chances. Bender is part of the leadership group and offers composure and stability, especially going into the later stages of a game and personally I haven't found his form an issue whatsoever? Jordie hasn't done anything to deserve getting a nod over Ben and has proven in the past he can't close games out (South Afrtica last year), I think the game will be close in the final quarter and Jordie coming on makes me nervous.

I also would have gone with Frizzel on the bench over Todd since we have two opensides on the part (Ardie and Cane) and S.Barrett is clearly lock cover now.


I'm not sure it's fair to say Steve has bottled it or choked - but this isn't the best team we could've picked for this game and we've giving Ireland a serious chance. I never bet against the boys, but I wouldn't be surprised to see another tight Ireland win.
 
Neutral observations:

Crotty and ALB is a much better choice for a crunch game in what they predict the conditions would be like.
Laumape should have been there is place of Goodhue, imagine what he can do with her space that SBW or ALB can create.

Hooker choice is good for this match, Coles later on bring a huge amount in that last 20 minutes.
Jordie is a better choice than Ben due to his versatility, test selections are not made on fan love and everyone I know (outside NZ) agrees that Ben S is not the player he used to be.
He might be a superhero to kids and a massive fan favorite based on years of good performances but he simply is no longer there (when looking from the outside).

All in all a good side, just as other posters mentioned, the midfield is a bit of a mystery
Irish eyes would light up though
 
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I think the lack of continuity will hurt us this game , particularly in the midfield.

I don't understand after finally finding a backline that's performing well and ALB finding form again at 13 that we completely change it again?

Concerning.
 
I presume Stuff aren't held in high regard? Quoting Fitzgerald again, and linking to a previous article of their's saying there's an Irish outpouring against Owens by quoting...Fitzgerald.

Surely NZ is the last country that needs to feel slighted by like this?
Their top article last time I looked was someone complaining about The price of hair product.

Ok, I don't actually remember what the article was but it was something equally newsworthy.
Gutted for Ben Smith :(
Crazy really. Seems Jordie is there because Hansen is worried that we might need to win the game on 80 minutes with a 53m penalty.


Match prediction: all blacks get out to an unassailable lead early, then the reserves come on early so we can rest the starters for the semi. Sbw then proceeds to throw an offload to ringrose for a try. Jordie then throws a pass behind his back straight to Stockdale for a try. Sbw then gets red carded for a shoulder to the head, after forgetting which code he is playing and what year it is.

the Irish against 14 men and a scrum superior to our reserve scrum proceed to come back before Reece gets angry and punches someone, leading to another red card. The Irish continue their come back and just pip the win at the end.

nz fans blame the mounga barret dual playmaker tactic and, of course, the referees.
 
I think the lack of continuity will hurt us this game , particularly in the midfield.

I don't understand after finally finding a backline that's performing well and ALB finding form again at 13 that we completely change it again?

Concerning.

Yeah it's weird eh. Both Goodhue (with the Crusaders) and ALB have played well at 13 outside Crotty, and now we are ditching him, can they play well without him?
 
Well Crotty and Goodhue started last year, we had

12.Crotty .13.Goodhue 23.ALB

ALB came on for Crotty around the 60 and we created nothing. Goodhue had an unspectacular game, Steve seems to think it was Crotty who did, but Goodhue played the full 80 and didn't do much, that's another reason why I'm surprised he's gone with him.

We really should be doing 12.Crotty 13.ALB then bringing SBW on for Crotty.
 
to be fair, when has ALB ever played badly? He's been good from the moment he stepped into test footy no matter who he is paired with. I think for a while he's been managed because he's come in very young for a midfielder but he's past that now.
I get it though, this seems like a situation ideal for Crotty. ALB and Goodie are only 24, Jack only has ~10 tests. Part of me thinks back to 07 when Howlett and Mauger were left out for less experienced options and it blew up in our faces. but at the same time it seems like Goodhue has been the first choice for a while and he's settled into test footy nicely, he has a bit more bulk and a style of play that works well in test rugby.
 
What's really helped us get over the line in previous world cups continuity and experience in the midfield pairing. Nonu and Smith are a pairing you will never see in world rugby again, but our next three experienced players now are Crotty (45) SBW (55) and ALB (40). Goodhue hasn't done enough to be selected ahead of any of them.
 
on the midfield, I think it is correct .

are they our best two midfilders? No, but we have to consider combinations

our best 12s at the World Cup, in order
Alb
Crotty
Sbw
Goodhue
Our best 13s
Alb
Goodhue
Crotty
Sbw

ok, so to me you want at least one offloaders, bit tou also need someone who is very good at the typical type of pass to ensure you've got the distribution to wide channels. And you need at least one of your players to be a hard runner.

offloaders
Sbw
Alb

passers
Crotty
Goodhue

Hard runners
Sbw
Goodhue

so we could go Crotty alb, or alb goodhue.

alb goodhue IMO is a better option, mainly on attack. Alb At 12 vs Crotty at 12, alb is the superior attacker. Alb is a great centre, but mostly it's his defensive attributes that shine at centre. And goodhue isn't too far off at that. Alb is brilliant on attack at 12.

in saying that, it's close and I'd rather trust experience. But that could just mean Crotty off the bench
 

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