Agree with you there, not as if Wales haven't been improving either, and not as if we haven't run them close in recent years.
The games have been close but you'd do well to consider that the team to play this time round won't be a tired team with a third of it being newbies given a go. This will , for the most part, be the strongest we can put out, rested, and motivated. I think the Springboks will be looking to put down a marker much like the 36-0 win over England in 2007. I'd say SA to win 32-20 as i'm sure the Welsh will score a few tries as our first time tackling hasn't been what it should be and was in 2007. That said, we havn't hit our straps yet and if Wales really have improved that much... who knows. I suppose bigger upsets have happened.
I don't agree that Wales have improved that much, they beat England last game but only had the ball a couple of times in that game. England came into the Welsh 22 something stupid like 25 times. SA just don't go there that often without coming away with points, try/drop/pen whatever. I'd like Wales to win as they are a home-nation but just think SA are to clinical.
I don't think that SA has been all that clinical; 1 on1 tackling has been poor and we lost waayyyy to many ball through handling errors in our games against Aus and NZ and thus didn't score a single try in those games. Forwards in the wrong positions handling (and half the time dropping) the ball killed all our attacking impetus. Hope Rassie sorts that out.
Yeah, Gatland will probably opt for Wellies starting and Hook midfield. Shame about Gavlar's injury.
Leigh is untested at FB but a better option than Lee Byrne regardless.
Bradley needs to step it up, he started off well but has been lacking a bit over the past few matches. Alun Wyn was excellent v Argentina, we need him to stay like that to even have a chance. I was pleasently surprised with Luke Charteris in his last game; hopefully second row won't be such an issue.
Regarding Phillips v Knoyle, I'd go for Phillips. He had a good showing in both games v England and his physicality will be needed against the Boks.
As far as the SA side goes, this doesn't seem unrealistic:
01 Steenkamp
02 Smit
03 du Plessis
04 Matfield
05 Botha
06 Burger
07 Alberts
08 Spies
09 du Preez
10 M Steyn
11 Habana
12 de Villiers
13 Fourie
14 Pietersen
15 F Steyn
16 B du Plessis
17 Mtawarira
18 Rossouw/Muller
19 Louw/Rossouw
20 Hougaard
21 Lambie
22 Aplon
I have a feeling Div will go for du Plessis over Smit, which would make sense considering form, but I don't see the point of making Smit captain and benching him.
Steenkamp and Mtawarira is a tough call. Injury free, Steenkamp every time. I don't know how they see Danie Rossouw, but I'd use him as backup lock over Muller. Louw/Brussow is another tough call, can Francois play blindside?
What I'd like to see though I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't go that route;
Steenkamp, Du Plessis, Du Plessis in the front row; John Smit just isn't a 1/4 of the player Bismarck is.
Second row is settled and the guys know their roles. I'd just like to see Matfield hang out less in the backline (both on attack and defense).
Brussow, Burger, Spies. With Alberts on the bench. Rossouw is off it and Burger has been playing more of a blindside role for the last few years anyway. Spies hopefully can continue his upward curve and I think a more open game would suit him better as well so hopefully he goes well and gains some confidence. I'd like to see him try to offload more though otherwise his runs don't count for as much.
FdP, Morne Steyn. It's no coincidence that Steyn has been playing better with FdP back. More time and confidence. Du Preez hasn't hit his straps yet though and that is what will make us go the distance or not IMO. His up-and-unders has been too deep most of the time with the odd one too close (probably overcompensating) and he hasn't taken over the decision making totally as yet. I'd like to see him get his old game back but his been out so long I wonders if he even remembers it LOL. Also, Juan de Jongh is a better 12 for my money in this set-up. Jaque Fourie picks himself as our best back unless FdP gets back to form.
Habana, Aplon, Lambie or otherwise Habana, Pietersen, Steyn. I'd prefer the former but expect the latter, especially if we have JdV at 12. The one puts more impetus on attack and keeping ball alive (giving nothing away WRT defense IMO) whereas the other seeks to play for territory and strangle the opposition/ force mistakes.
SA will win this by 5 points, but if SA do lose this game its not the end, they might even like it more because if they lose they will have to vs Aus in quarter final instead of NZ in semi... either way they will lose to both NZ and Aus but they might think they have more of a shot at beating Aus than NZ... hmmm i dunno im just saying random thing lol.
TBH I'd rather see us play NZ in the SF than Aus in the QF. Can't substantiate it but I feel more confident about our chances against NZ than Aus.
What's the Bok scrum been like recently? Think we might have an edge in that department, especially with Adam Jones back. Line out is gonna be a huge problem for us probably, Matfield has a habit of being able to just disrupt everything for us there.
Bok scrum is solid up until the point that PdV moves John Smit to tighthead. At that point I'd be able to push them around LOL. The scary thing is that actually might happen; I thought they learnt their lesson but then lo and behold, they do it again against the Aussies and we go back in the scrums at pace.
