RWC 2023 Predictions

IT157 · Aug 29, 2023

Rinkadink said:
I think this tournament is South Africa's to lose; they have to be favourites by far and its mental trying to downplay their form and dominance going into the world cup. This of course doesn't mean SA are certain to win but failing to do so would be such an underachievement. Every other team has issues or wobbles of varying degrees, SA is just plain sailing backed up by a solid foundation to build from.

This is all pre tournament though, who knows. Maybe Ireland stop choking or France use their home advantage to find their top form or a resurgent Australia benefit from Jones pulling a rabbit out of a hat? I'm looking forward to finding out.

Flyhalf is an area of concern for the Springboks imo.

Stade Rochelais · Aug 29, 2023

Booboobang said:
What wales have you been watching!?
Hilarious if true but I cant see the guys who lost to a 13 man husk of england gettign past the quarters, see them struggling in the group tbh.

I base myself on the statistics of the last 3 world cups in Wales. Friendly matches mean absolutely nothing.

Regarding Wales, here is proof that it is a team that is used to the last four of the Rugby World Cup.

In 2019 they reached the semi-final.
In 2015 they reached the quarter-finals.
In 2011 they reached the semi-final

TRF_Olyy · Aug 29, 2023

People put way too much stock into historic results,
What do 2011 results have to do with 2023?

IT157 · Aug 29, 2023

Stade Rochelais said:
I base myself on the statistics of the last 3 world cups in Wales. Friendly matches mean absolutely nothing.

Regarding Wales, here is proof that it is a team that is used to the last four of the Rugby World Cup.

In 2019 they reached the semi-final.
In 2015 they reached the quarter-finals.
In 2011 they reached the semi-final

Yet you're basing your prediction on how the team did in 2011..... Yeah, that counts for a lot lol.

Booboobang · Aug 29, 2023

Stade Rochelais said:
I base myself on the statistics of the last 3 world cups in Wales. Friendly matches mean absolutely nothing.

Regarding Wales, here is proof that it is a team that is used to the last four of the Rugby World Cup.

In 2019 they reached the semi-final.
In 2015 they reached the quarter-finals.
In 2011 they reached the semi-final

What exactly does a result 4 years ago mean when they have been dire in the recent past. six nations bad, autum internationals, bad, recent warm ups, bad.

Such broken thinking would have you putting england into the finals or winning. Would have the same team winning every 4 years, just doesnt happen.

Just look at the last final actually, England there despite losing the the groups the previous go around. Australia in the final before that and out at the quarters in the last WC.

Should always look at this current team, this team has very little remaining from their previous tournaments and has looked dire.

Booboobang · Aug 29, 2023

TRF_Olyy said:
People put way too much stock into historic results,
What do 2011 results have to do with 2023?

England went out in the groups in 2015, surely they would never make it to the final in 2019, WAIT they made hte final in 2019, surely they will again this time around?

Who cares about the mass amounts of rugby in between and squad change.

Booboobang · Aug 29, 2023

IT157 said:
Flyhalf is an area of concern for the Springboks imo.

Agree, they are top tier. Libbok flashes brilliance but he has a stinker in him and kicking abandons him to often to be comfortable, hit one of those bad days ina. KO game against ireland, france or NZ and you are in for a bad time.

I have them as my choice to win, but certainly not with as much comfort as the talent in their squad should suggest.

Leonormous Boozer · Aug 29, 2023

History dictates world cups, they're always the same.

Lé Ddanno · Aug 29, 2023

Whore of Shame said:
History dictates world cups, they're always the same.

Ahh a quarter final collapse it is then.

Leonormous Boozer · Aug 29, 2023

Lé Ddanno said:
Ahh a quarter final collapse it is then.

Can't get hurt if you know what's coming

Lé Ddanno · Aug 29, 2023

Whore of Shame said:
Can't get hurt if you know what's coming

Oh trust me, you can

AlRums · Aug 30, 2023

Stade Rochelais said:
I base myself on the statistics of the last 3 world cups in Wales. Friendly matches mean absolutely nothing.

Regarding Wales, here is proof that it is a team that is used to the last four of the Rugby World Cup.

In 2019 they reached the semi-final.
In 2015 they reached the quarter-finals.
In 2011 they reached the semi-final

In 2019 just before the RWC Wales were ranked no 1 in the world, this time they no 10. World of difference

AlRums · Aug 30, 2023

Whore of Shame said:
Can't get hurt if you know what's coming

Be pessimistic, it can only get better

Zed · Aug 30, 2023

IT157 said:
Classic Eddie Jones rope-a-dope!

You are going to have a great World Cup! Knock out England on the way as well.

Yeah. He's a cunning old fox, lose all your games leading up to the world cup, so everyone underestimates you, then bam!

Brigantine · Aug 30, 2023

Cruz_del_Sur said:
I'm curious. On an elimination match (i.e. after group stages) do you reckon the average nzder would rather face RSA than Fra? If i were to bet money on NZ and had to pick an opponent of those two, i'd probably go with France. Unpopular opinion prolly.

To be fair, part of the France thing is not that we're confident of winning against South Africa - just that losing to France is more embarrassing than losing to South Africa. (Just like when Ireland has a QF opponent that on paper shouldn't give them much trouble, but they fail anyway)

Whore of Shame said:
Forget everything I've said and give Johnny the cup.

That's shockingly close between the top 4

Noteworthy that Argentina is not just the favourite for bronze, but the actual favourite wild card for gold, with room to spare ahead of England.
(more than the room between 1st and 3rd or between 2nd and 4th, despite the small base)

Sad for Scotland there, seeing them in the same tier as Fiji

Stade Rochelais · Aug 30, 2023

AlRums said:
In 2019 just before the RWC Wales were ranked no 1 in the world, this time they no 10. World of difference

In 2010 they were ranked 9th before the 2011 World Cup and their famous semi-final against France lost on the socre of 8 to 9.

In 2015 they were ranked 6th just a few weeks before the 2015 World Cup, they were painfully beaten by South Africa in the quarter-finals 23 to 19.

You underestimate Wales too much, yet they have proven to show a different face during the Rugby World Cups.

The IRB ranking has no impact and means absolutely nothing. In 2018 South Africa was ranked 6th in the IRB rankings, a year later they became 2019 world champion.

Cruz_del_Sur · Aug 30, 2023

This is the clip i mentioned earlier

Dont get me wrong, nothing is for certain at this point, but i believe he makes a very solid case.

Cruz_del_Sur · Aug 30, 2023

Brigantine said:
To be fair, part of the France thing is not that we're confident of winning against South Africa - just that losing to France is more embarrassing than losing to South Africa. (Just like when Ireland has a QF opponent that on paper shouldn't give them much trouble, but they fail anyway)

Interesting, thanks for sharing. I could understand that in any other 'era', but, and I know what I'm about to say is strong, you've got the weakest AB squad you've had in a while while France has thier strongest. You could easily argue that, on paper, France has the best squad, period.

I know Ireland could beat anyone. But when they are not sharp it shows, and that could kill em on Qfs, SFs or the F. Part of why i favour RSA is because they tend to cover their shortcomings better than the rest. I think that has a LOT to do with the style they use. I like the video. 1-12 bully you around, create the inches 13-15 need to **** you up. I think France could put up with RSA's bullying but then i look at how they defend and i find RSA's def line harder to break. Right now (without the insight of group games), in a 1v1 i'd favour RSA over any other team other than the ABs. And then it'd be 50-50. But the ABs would struggle more against others. Styles makes fights, et al. Rock-paper-scissors kinda thing. I know, transitivity goes out the window.
I think the loss of Ntamack is gargantuan for France.

Booboobang · Aug 30, 2023

Stade Rochelais said:
In 2010 they were ranked 9th before the 2011 World Cup and their famous semi-final against France lost on the socre of 8 to 9.

In 2015 they were ranked 6th just a few weeks before the 2015 World Cup, they were painfully beaten by South Africa in the quarter-finals 23 to 19.

You underestimate Wales too much, yet they have proven to show a different face during the Rugby World Cups.

The IRB ranking has no impact and means absolutely nothing. In 2018 South Africa was ranked 6th in the IRB rankings, a year later they became 2019 world champion.

England have won world cups and got to the final last time, your broken logic dictates that they should be right there this time, yet if you look at form and the team its a completely differnt circumstance.

If they were bringing back more of their team from past world cups, maybe, but they arent, its a completely differnt set of players that have shown nothing at international rugby. I mean you just have to look at england last time to highlight this, group stage exit to finalists, previous performance has no bearing on ability of the current team.

Like I said, would be hilarious if they make the semis, but strong feeling this is going to result in egg on your face.

pagliaccio_euforico · Aug 30, 2023

I want a Scotland v wales semi. That's all I want. Also for Australia to fail to qualify for 2027.

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