RWC 2023 Predictions

[O’Doyle Rules]

Maybe wishful thinking as an Ireland fan, but I do think Ireland have an advantage in their travelling fans - I am pretty sure they will have majority of crowds other than against France if they meet. The Irish travel well and this isn't a long trip for them.

Managing to turn your game almost home like will be a major advantage.

 

[Saintjay]

Talk that Danty has a hamstring injury and will miss (at least) the NZ game - that significantly damaged their chances of topping the pool

Looks like he's definitely going to be out according to the Times.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

but I do think Ireland have an advantage in their travelling fans

You believe so? I couldn't help thinking of NZ and England when i read this. Could be case-specific, who knows?

 

[Groundhog]

I would bet we will have more travelling fans than anyone to be honest. Us and the English. Have to bare in mind most Leinster fans already spend half of the year in the South of France for tax avoidance reasons anyway.

Speaking of France, if they don't have Danty it can be a game changer. I almost forgot their first match is probably the pool decider vs NZ.

 

[Stade Rochelais]

Je parierais que nous aurons plus de fans itinérants que quiconque, pour être honnête. Nous et les Anglais. Il faut garder à l'esprit que la plupart des fans de Leinster passent déjà la moitié de l'année dans le sud de la France pour des raisons d'évasion fiscale.

En parlant de France, s'ils n'ont pas Danty, cela pourrait changer la donne. J'ai presque oublié que leur premier match était probablement décisif contre la Nouvelle-Zélande.

La France va gagner contre les All Black.
La France sera poussée par son public et en tant que pays hôte, l'arbitre offrira quelques faveurs à la France comme lors de la finale de la Coupe du monde 2011 pour les All Black.
Le score sera serré.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Sound financial advice from Vic and Jean (including a healthy dose of obvious bias).

 

[Which Tyler]

You believe so? I couldn't help thinking of NZ and England when i read this. Could be case-specific, who knows?

Ireland always seem to bring more travelling fans than anyone else - in club rugby at least. Certainly Leinster and Munster.
I've seen Heineken Cup matches in England where there were more Irishmen than Englishmen.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

I can understand the irish travel more than the english, % wise, and i can imagine a few club/6N games where they outnumbered the english, but on an event like the world cup? Pop size matters, and both are close enough are both are (comparatively vs others) rich countries.

 

[Groundhog]

I can understand the irish travel more than the english, % wise, and i can imagine a few club/6N games where they outnumbered the english, but on an event like the world cup? Pop size matters, and both are close enough are both are (comparatively vs others) rich countries.

Only so many tickets for each game. We have way more people willing to travel than available tickets. Ours have sold out pretty instantly and are like gold dust, I'm sure England are probably the same, so much of a muchness.

I'd imagine you will probably have more very optimistic Irish people than English that have bought final tickets this year speculatively.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

If I was English I'd turn in the exact opposite direction to Paris and double my distance from the city, at which point I'd either be in the north of England or Scotland. I'd then get mercilessly drunk and keep my mouth shut.

 

[Groundhog]

If I was English I'd turn in the exact opposite direction to Paris and double my distance from the city, at which point I'd either be in the north of England or Scotland. I'd then get mercilessly drunk and keep my mouth shut.

As if a soft London Southerner wouldn't immediately get murdered the second they walked into a Bolton pub

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Only so many tickets for each game. We have way more people willing to travel than available tickets.

Fair, thou I am not convinced everyone who goes there goes to all games. Difficult to account for that. I am still not convinced there will be more people traveling from ireland than from england to watch the WC (group stages). Could be, but i doubt it.
I mean, just look at last WC (not the same, i know, but just to add some facts and context). And yes, sure, two more games from Eng vs Ire, but they trippled the amount. And take into account the final takes a monumental shitload of hospitality tickets away from the fans from the teams actually playing.
In my experience, anecdotal, granted, the English tend to support their teams. Maybe it's that they are just not as loud as the Irish. Rugby wise, course.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Isn't this World Cup very commuter friendly? Almost every game is on a weekend. Japan was more tourist-centric as it was an onslaught of games.
If you planned for this I'd imagine you could make it to all your team's games pretty easily if you are Europe based.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Isn't this World Cup very commuter friendly? Almost every game is on a weekend. Japan was more tourist-centric as it was an onslaught of games.
If you planned for this I'd imagine you could make it to all your team's games pretty easily if you are Europe based.

Yeah, very possible to get in on the morning of the match and our the next days. Not what I'm doing but plenty are.

 

[Groundhog]

Fair, thou I am not convinced everyone who goes there goes to all games. Difficult to account for that. I am still not convinced there will be more people traveling from ireland than from england to watch the WC (group stages). Could be, but i doubt it.
I mean, just look at last WC (not the same, i know, but just to add some facts and context). And yes, sure, two more games from Eng vs Ire, but they trippled the amount. And take into account the final takes a monumental shitload of hospitality tickets away from the fans from the teams actually playing.
In my experience, anecdotal, granted, the English tend to support their teams. Maybe it's that they are just not as loud as the Irish. Rugby wise, course.


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Fair point and interesting stats! The English traveled impressively in 2019!! Just one caveat I would have is that with our huge emigrant population in England and Australia we will siphon off some of that figure. To be fair I don't know how they tracked 'ticket sales by nationality', whether there was a questionnaire with ticket sales or it was an IP address based thing. I don't have 2019 examples but from the 2011 world cup:

"According to Statistics New Zealand, 7,431 visitors arrived for the world cup on Irish passports. Of those 3,981 came from Ireland.... The number of Irish fans in the stadium were boosted by some of the 12,000 Irish-born long-term residents of New Zealand and the 5,000 or so currently on short-term holiday visas or working visas."

We obviously don't have a big population in Japan, but I would imagine that Aussie figure included a healthy amount of Irish and to a lesser extent the English figure. I'm sure England would still come in comfortably #1 for 2019 though.

I do think the overall point stands though that we should be roughly equivalent for England and Ireland, because literally every ticket available to us both will sell, and we will probably scalp some English ones too. I don't think everyone is staying for every pool game. It's super commutable. I personally am staying a week between game one and two, then going home, coming back for Paris, going home again then back to Paris for the final pool game. Flights are super affordable as long as you don't fly into the host cities themselves.

 

[ShropshireAllBlack]

The Irish have always been creative at getting tickets in addition to the official allocation. Everyone will know someone living in Scotland etc and will ask them to buy tickets if they're unavailable locally or failing that, VPN is your friend. If we're still in the latter stages of the competition, schools half term also can fall sympathetically….

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Based off of the numbers at the Boks vs ABs game at Twickenham I think South Africa will have a very respectable crowd as well

I imagine Aussie's are 2nd (behind Ireland) for expat population in the NH (from rugby nations) but South Africans more likely to turn out for games

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I am still grateful none of the home countries, Ireland or France got to the final 8 years ago otherwise no way would I have got a ticket for the final. Just remember loads of Bok fans, Aussie fans (they turn up in their droves when the green and gold are a winning team) and NZ fans for the knockout games. They'll be there.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Just wait til 2031 when it isn't even affordable for Americans to fly to most games.

 

[OnePostWonder]

Ireland to beat Boks in group stage.
Ireland to beat Boks in WC Final.