Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions

[bushytop]

Another experimental format:

View attachment 7539

That's a really cool overview of the whole tournament... I like that one.

 

[Brigantine]

[link to previous update]

Russia becomes the first team to be mathematically eliminated. England and Italy have qualified for RWC 2023.
While not yet mathematically eliminated, USA and Georgia now join Samoa, Namibia, Canada, Fiji and Uruguay in having a 0% chance of progressing.

Ireland, New Zealand, Australia and Wales will 100% qualify for QFs. (though they haven't yet)
South Africa, England and France are all at least 94.5%.

Japan and Scotland are competing for the last spot, and it will most likely come down to the very last pool match.

Tonga is down to 0.1% - to progress, they need a bonus point win over France (1.4%) and the USA (15%), and even then it's only a maybe. They are 0% to progress beyond a QF.
Italy is down to 0.4% - they need a win tonight. They are <0.1% to win a QF and come 4th.
Argentina still have 6.0% chance of progressing. There are two paths - beat England (4.0%), or for Tonga to beat France (7.0%)

 

[Goodey]

Brig I will always like these posts. High quality sports geekery aside, there's enough charts here to let me get away with reading them at work.

 

[ncurd]

I love the tables and pie charts.

I kinda wish New Zealand would lose to Italy or something just to throw the entire thing out of whack though

 

[Brigantine]

I kinda wish New Zealand would lose to Italy or something just to throw the entire thing out of whack though

I didn't have fancy charts back then, but when Romania had qualified, Russia had been eliminated, and then something happened in Spain and the lawyers got involved... That's alright though. Russia have been value.

When I first made this model in February last year, New Zealand and England had it wrapped up. Wales had a Brighton Miracle-like 1.4% shot at the trophy and South Africa were at 2.0%. How things have changed since then...
[This diagram was actually made based on an earlier, more naive model, but it still more or less applies]

[UPDATE] For a better comparison, I went back and made a Pie Tree of the original simulation using the current model:



And then here is as it stood 19 months later, just before the start of the tournament:

 

[Brigantine]

Italy are 100% to be eliminated during pool play. (now 9 teams are)
South Africa is 100% to be in QF4.

 

[Goodey]

England became the first team to mathematically qualify for the quarters today. Samoa, Georgia and Uruguay join Russia and Nambia as eliminated.

Australia and Japan aren't yet able to confirm a quarter but they are now certain to finish in the top three of their pool and qualify for next time.

I went back and worked out the dates where everyone qualified for a quarter, qualified for 2023 or got knocked out, and (assuming there are no more big upsets) worked out when others will join them.

Everything in italics is a (very likely to occur) prediction, of course. I haven't called the more even games, so have left the progressor out of Scotland and Japan TBC. The other reasonably close matches left (France v England, USA v Tonga and Namibia v Canada) shouldn't affect the list.

Through to the quarter finals:

Saturday 5th: England
Sunday 6th: France

Tuesday 8th: South Africa
Wednesday 9th: Wales, Australia
Saturday 12th: Ireland, New Zealand
Sunday 13th: Japan or Scotland

Qualification for 2023:

Wednesday 2nd: Italy, England
Thursday 3rd: Ireland
Saturday 5th: Australia, Japan
Sunday 6th: New Zealand, France

Tuesday 8th: South Africa
Wednesday 9th: Scotland, Argentina, Wales
Sunday 13th: Fiji

Eliminated:

Thursday 3rd: Russia
Friday 4th: Namibia
Saturday 5th: Samoa, Georgia and Uruguay
Sunday 6th: Canada, Argentina, Tonga & USA

Wednesday 9th: Fiji
Saturday 12th: Italy
Sunday 13th: Scotland or Japan

Unable to reach 3rd place:

Friday 4th: Namibia
Sunday 6th: Tonga

Tuesday 8th: Canada
Wednesday 9th: Russia, USA, Samoa
Friday 11th: Georgia
Sunday 13th: Uruguay

[[Edited to include Sunday's matches]]

 

[bushytop]

England became the first team to mathematically qualify for the quarters today. Samoa, Georgia and Uruguay join Russia and Nambia as eliminated.

Australia and Japan aren't yet able to confirm a quarter but they are now certain to finish in the top three of their pool and qualify for next time.

I went back and worked out the dates where everyone qualified for a quarter, qualified for 2023 or got knocked out, and (assuming there are no more big upsets) worked out when others will join them.

Everything in italics is a (very likely to occur) prediction, of course. I haven't called the more even games, so have left the progressor out of Scotland and Japan TBC. The other reasonably close matches left (France v England, USA v Tonga and Namibia v Canada) shouldn't affect the list.

Through to the quarter finals:

Saturday 5th: England

Sunday 6th: France
Tuesday 8th: South Africa
Wednesday 9th: Wales, Australia
Saturday 12th: Ireland, New Zealand
Sunday 13th: Japan or Scotland

Qualification for 2023:

Wednesday 2nd: Italy, England
Thursday 3rd: Ireland
Saturday 5th: Australia, Japan

Sunday 6th: New Zealand, France
Tuesday 8th: South Africa
Wednesday 9th: Scotland, Argentina, Wales
Friday 11th: Fiji

Eliminated:

Thursday 3rd: Russia
Friday 4th: Namibia
Saturday 5th: Samoa, Georgia and Uruguay

Sunday 6th: Argentina, Tonga & USA
Tuesday 8th: Canada
Wednesday 9th: Fiji
Saturday 12th: Italy
Sunday 13th: Scotland or Japan

I'm actually 'fairly' concerned about the Fiji game. Might just be my natural Welsh pessimism but that second half against Georgia was enough to not let me relax until the win is sealed.

 

[Goodey]

I can't say I'd feel any different if I were you. Wales have precedent in this area.

If Fiji were to jump Wales (8/1 if you fancy it), it'd delay the relevant dates for progression/elimination to Sunday 12th where wales have that Uruguay game up their sleeve. A losing bonus point for Wales against Fiji would be enough for both sides to guarantee 2023 qualification early.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

I just worked out that Ireland can't not make the quarterfinals if they beat Samoa. No combination of bonus points and winning margins will result in them not making it, if they beat Samoa.

 

[TRF_heineken]

I just worked out that Ireland can't not make the quarterfinals if they beat Samoa. No combination of bonus points and winning margins will result in them not making it, if they beat Samoa.

But, there is a typhoon issue... We are discussing that in the Ireland vs. Samoa thread right now...

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I just worked out that Ireland can't not make the quarterfinals if they beat Samoa. No combination of bonus points and winning margins will result in them not making it, if they beat Samoa.

We can. PD is only used to decide who wins in case of a three way tiebreaker, second is decided by the remaining head to head. In theory all three teams could be on 15, Scotland have the best of and Ireland lose out on head to head v Japan.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

We can. PD is only used to decide who wins in case of a three way tiebreaker, second is decided by the remaining head to head. In theory all three teams could be on 15, Scotland have the best of and Ireland lose out on head to head v Japan.

I thought if all end up on 15 that it would be pd for all rankings. Otherwise, with the teams finishing as you describe, you could say they pick third place as japan as having the worst pd, then choose Ireland over Scotland as the winner of the game between the two.

If it's based on pd for all 3 teams then Ireland must have beaten Samoa, increasing their pd from what it is now, and japan must have beaten Samoa, decreasing their pd from what it is now. So given Ireland currently has a better pd than japan they would end up higher

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I thought if all end up on 15 that it would be pd for all rankings. Otherwise, with the teams finishing as you describe, you could say they pick third place as japan as having the worst pd, then choose Ireland over Scotland as the winner of the game between the two.

If it's based on pd for all 3 teams then Ireland must have beaten Samoa, increasing their pd from what it is now, and japan must have beaten Samoa, decreasing their pd from what it is now. So given Ireland currently has a better pd than japan they would end up higher

That's what I though two but they consider it to be two separate tiebreakers for some reason.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

That's what I though two but they consider it to be two separate tiebreakers for some reason.

Right you are, I just read the clarification.

 

[FrenchFan]

England became the first team to mathematically qualify for the quarters today.

yes and well done to them. Some 'pool of death' it was . I remember making the point how it was all media hype.
https://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/rugby-world-cup-2019-predictions.39070/page-7#post-944920

 

[Brigantine]

[link to previous update]

Not a whole lot changing over the weekend.
The already small chances for Italy, Argentina and Tonga in the knock outs have disappeared. Only 9 teams remain with any chance of a QF
France are down to 0.2% chance to lift the cup, (down from 0.5%) thanks to another unconvincing win, this time over Tonga. Wales is the biggest beneficiary.



Georgia have a 1.8% shot at beating Australia to probably snatch 3rd in Pool off Fiji and retain automatic qualification.
Fiji is at 2.5% to beat Wales. An upset here would probably put Australia 1st in Pool and Wales 2nd.
France are at 6.0% to beat England and top the pool.
USA have 22% vs Argentina and 46% vs Tonga. They basically need both to reach 3rd in Pool. (12%)

3 of the remaining games are very competitive - no team has more than 52% in Japan vs Scotland, Namibia vs Canada, or USA vs Tonga.

The other remaining pool games are all 99.8%+ for 5-0 TP results.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

With England and ABs being in the same half of the draw and Ireland having infuriatingly persistent injury issues at fly half, I think there are solid grounds for considering Wales as the most likely to win it all (and certainly the side with the highest likelihood to reach the final). Even though I think the Boks are a bad matchup for them and that contest looks odds on if Japan win their group.

England remain my favourites and considered strongest side, but the draw makes Wales the more likely to win in my head (if that makes sense).

1st choice: England to win it all if they routinely start Ford or Slade - if not then

2nd choice: ABs if ALB maintains form and SBW doesn't get a sniff of the starting berth - if not then

3rd choice: Wales if they play Patchell and Liam William's - if not then

4th choice: England or ABs in a coin flip, regardless of their 23.

5th choice: Ireland if Sexton can get to 90% fitness or if Carbery gets to 100% (hard to evaluate obviously) - if not then

6th choice: Boks with any 23.

7th choice: Wales with any 23

8th choice: Wallabies with any 23

9th choice: Scotland with any 23

10th choice: Ireland with Carty starting.

11th choice: Japan

12th choice: France

 

[Goodey]

Looking forward to @Brigantine 's breakdown of the knockout stages

I like my RWC preditions, but I want them with more charts

 

[Brigantine]

Glad to hear, but you'll have to wait I still have pool games to watch on replay, and I'm being selfish and prioritizing avoiding spoilers.
I watched Japan v Scotland already though, naturally!

What I also want to see (later) is a combined table as if all 20 teams were in one pool.