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Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions

RugbyUSA said:
I hope my USA Eagles play well enough for those of you from countries with teams that win consistently will admire their hard play.
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I just saw yesterday on Twitter that the US team had arrived in Japan... YESTERDAY??? I'm certainly rooting for us (I even made the case we might get more wins than our previous combined total), and then I read we're arriving in Japan three days before the tournament starts? What the eff were we doing before? Every other team has been there for at least a week! Oy vey, USA.
 
Dave Davies said:
I just saw yesterday on Twitter that the US team had arrived in Japan... YESTERDAY??? I'm certainly rooting for us (I even made the case we might get more wins than our previous combined total), and then I read we're arriving in Japan three days before the tournament starts? What the eff were we doing before? Every other team has been there for at least a week! Oy vey, USA.
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Yes but dont forget your first game isnt until the 26th vs England where as we play Tonga on the 22nd so we needed to be here early. Maybe 3 days before the tournament starts but its 9 days before your first game. So makes sense really.
 
scotty507 said:
Maybe 3 days before the tournament starts but its 9 days before your first game. So makes sense really.
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It's a fair point, but why not get as used to the climate and conditions as possible? Just seems odd, it's not like we were playing for the last few weeks... :/
 
Dave Davies said:
It's a fair point, but why not get as used to the climate and conditions as possible? Just seems odd, it's not like we were playing for the last few weeks... :/
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I think at home the players can relax and fine tune their skills and team, where as when they get to Japan it will be full on and the pressure will switch on having 2 weeks could be to much. 9 days of training amd getting used to it and experiencing the culture is better IMO, they could have gone the day after their last warm up spend good few weeks preparing but you dont want to over prepare and it get in the heads of your players that feel like the pressure is on but they just have to wait now.

Thats my take on it anyway.
 
Dave Davies said:
I just saw yesterday on Twitter that the US team had arrived in Japan... YESTERDAY??? I'm certainly rooting for us (I even made the case we might get more wins than our previous combined total), and then I read we're arriving in Japan three days before the tournament starts? What the eff were we doing before? Every other team has been there for at least a week! Oy vey, USA.
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Over the weekend they ran the VERY steep Manitou incline in Colorado and then visited some sick kids at a Children's hospital in Denver. They're a classy crew!
 
The model I made mostly focuses on who wins games, I didn't put too much thought into bonus points and win margins. But since the projections of who progresses from pools depends on it, I'll show what's happening in the model here. Even though a few things seem not-quite-right.

Japan vs Russia:

Japan win 99.7%, draw <0.1%, Russia win 0.3%
Table Points Japan \ Table Points Russia
  • 99.2% 5 TP Japan \ Russia 0 TP 99.2%, __________ 2 TP <0.1%
  • _0.4% 4 TP Japan \ Russia 0 TP _0.2%, 1 TP 0.2%
  • <0.1% 2 TP Japan \ Russia _____________________ 2 TP <0.1%
  • _0.3% 1 TP Japan \ Russia _________________________________ 4 TP 0.2%, 5 TP <0.1%
  • <0.1% 0 TP Japan \ Russia _________________________________ 4 TP <0.1%
  • _
  • 100% TB Russia Total: ___ 0 TP 99.4%, 1 TP 0.2%, 2 TP __0.1%, 4 TP 0.3%, 5 TP <0.1%

Australia vs Fiji:

Australia win 81%, draw 1.6%, Fiji win 17%
Table Points Australia \ Table Points Fiji
  • 63% 5 TP Australia \ Fiji 0 TP 60%, 1 TP 1.2%, 2 TP _1.4%
  • 19% 4 TP Australia \ Fiji 0 TP 8.5%, 1 TP 10%, 2 TP _0.2%
  • 0.3% 3 TP Australia \ Fiji ___________________ 2 TP <0.1%, 3 TP 0.3%
  • 2.5% 2 TP Australia \ Fiji ___________________ 2 TP _1.2%, 3 TP 0.1%, 4 TP 0.3%, 5 TP 1.0%
  • 11% 1 TP Australia \ Fiji _________________________________________ 4 TP 9.5%, 5 TP 1.0%
  • 5.0% 0 TP Australia \ Fiji ________________________________________ 4 TP 3.5%, 5 TP 1.8%
  • _
  • 100% TP Fiji Total: _____ 0 TP 69%, 1 TP 11%, 2 TP _3.0%, 3 TP 0.4%, 4 TP _13%, 5 TP 4.0%
France vs Argentina:

France win 67%, draw 2.5%, Argentina win 31%
Table Points France \ Table Points Argentina
  • 39% 5 TP France \ Argentina 0 TP 35%, 1 TP 2.0%, 2 TP _2.0%
  • 28% 4 TP France \ Argentina 0 TP 12%, 1 TP _15%, 2 TP _0.4%
  • 0.4% 3 TP France \ Argentina ___________________ 2 TP <0.1%, 3 TP _0.3%
  • 4.0% 2 TP France \ Argentina ___________________ 2 TP _1.8%, 3 TP <0.1%, 4 TP 0.5%, 5 TP 1.8%
  • 16% 1 TP France \ Argentina __________________________________________ 4 TP 15%, 5 TP 1.4%
  • 13% 0 TP France \ Argentina __________________________________________ 4 TP 7.0%, 5 TP 6.0%
  • _
  • 100% TP Argentina Total: ___ 0 TP 47%, 1 TP 17%, 2 TP _4.5%, 3 TP _0.4%, 4 TP 22%, 5 TP 9.0%
New Zealand vs South Africa:

New Zealand win 59%, draw 2.5%, South Africa win 39%
Table Points New Zealand \ Table Points South Africa
  • 29% 5 TP New Zealand \ South Africa 0 TP 25%, 1 TP 2.0%, 2 TP 2.0%
  • 29% 4 TP New Zealand \ South Africa 0 TP 12%, 1 TP _17%, 2 TP 0.5%
  • 0.4% 3 TP New Zealand \ South Africa ___________________ 2 TP 0.1%, 3 TP _0.3%
  • 4.0% 2 TP New Zealand \ South Africa ___________________ 2 TP 2.0%, 3 TP <0.1%, 4 TP 0.4%, 5 TP 1.6%
  • 19% 1 TP New Zealand \ South Africa _________________________________________ 4 TP 17%, 5 TP 1.8%
  • 18% 0 TP New Zealand \ South Africa _________________________________________ 4 TP 9.0%, 5 TP 9.0%
  • _
  • 100% TP South Africa Total: ________ 0 TP 37%, 1 TP _19%, 2 TP 4.5%, 3 TP 0.4%, 4 TP 26%, 5 TP 13%

Italy vs Namibia etc. - I might edit these in later

[technical fine-print follows]
On a related note, I've been thinking for a while what I should do with Rankings Points changes after RWC games start. I don't want to use the 2x weighting used in the rankings because then mid-RWC issued projections would go haywire and be inconsistent. I thought about not updating the RP at all, but that would cause problems too.
And now I've decided. I'll keep my own table of teams and their RP, and update each team's RP (the average of the probability distribution) as calculated by a Bayesian update, i.e. I'll average the team's RP in all the scenarios which predicted the correct outcome in terms of the table points awarded to both teams.
(or as a contingency if a very unlikely <1.0% outcome occurs, I'll calculate it just on a win/draw/loss basis. Unless that was also unlikely at <=0.2% in which case I'll default to exchanging 3.00 RP or 4.50 RP for a 15+ point winning margin. In the case of a <=0.2% draw, I'll split the difference between a 4-1 win and a 1-4 loss)
This means that that two teams after playing each other won't gain/lose the same amount of RP, but hopefully projections from one week to the next will be consistent, e.g. if a team wins a 50:50 must-win game, their chances beyond that game should double.
 
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Wow, that's impressive stuff!

Unrelated, dumb noob question... is Wales' replacement Attacks Coach the same Stephen Jones who's always being vilified on Blood and Mud? Certainly not, right?
 
Dave Davies said:
Wow, that's impressive stuff!

Unrelated, dumb noob question... is Wales' replacement Attacks Coach the same Stephen Jones who's always being vilified on Blood and Mud? Certainly not, right?
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Not familiar with Blood and Mud but willing to guess that it's definitely not, there's another Stephen Jones who's a contrarian gutter journalist (basically an internet troll except employed by one of the major Emglisb newspapers, can't remember which), I'd say he's the one you're thinking of.

This guy is a former Wales outhalf who's done very well coaching attack at the Scarlets and was going to take over as attack coach for Wales after the world cup anyway (along with Wayne Pivac, the Scarlets head coach).
 
Whatever the outcome, how many wars we fight, the joy and the tears..
I wish everyone a phenomenal world cup, players and supporters

Good karma against serious injuries and good sportsmanship throughout
This game is bigger than any one of us
 
just looked at the draw and both of the pool A v pool B quarterfinals are at night at the same venue as the opener where high balls got caught in the lights. likelihood of ireland progressing might just have improved.
 
Dave Davies said:
Wow, that's impressive stuff!

Unrelated, dumb noob question... is Wales' replacement Attacks Coach the same Stephen Jones who's always being vilified on Blood and Mud? Certainly not, right?
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Leinster Fan said:
Not familiar with Blood and Mud but willing to guess that it's definitely not, there's another Stephen Jones who's a contrarian gutter journalist (basically an internet troll except employed by one of the major Emglisb newspapers, can't remember which), I'd say he's the one you're thinking of.

This guy is a former Wales outhalf who's done very well coaching attack at the Scarlets and was going to take over as attack coach for Wales after the world cup anyway (along with Wayne Pivac, the Scarlets head coach).
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First and foremost, love Blood and Mud, it's a hidden gem of a rugby podcast. Second, to back Leinster up, yeah the Stephen Jones they (& everyone else) always attack is a journo for the Times... he rarely (if ever) speaks any sense.

Stephen Jones (Wellies) who is replacing Howley was an fly half of decent repute (played 10 when we won our first Grand Slam for like 30 years as well as a starting test Lion) and his coaching style and stats both seem to be trending in the right direction.

As I mentioned in a previous thread, without wanting to rub Howlers nose in his current situation but this 'could' be the best thing that could happen to Wales.
 
Im still strongly favouring England to win fairly comfortably, hopefully, with a bit of panache.

- Good coach with extensive Japanese experience.
- Solid across the park and can play in all conditions
- Their tradional weakness compared to SH has been at centre in my opinion, but not this time as i don't like any SH centre combo all that much (and in Slade they actually have a great distributor).
- loads of depth and no significant injury issues I'm aware of.
- pipe and slippers time for them until the QFs
- lots of rivals have significant issues, injuries or weaknesses
 
Bruce_ma_goose said:
Im still strongly favouring England to win fairly comfortably, hopefully, with a bit of panache.

- Good coach with extensive Japanese experience.
- Solid across the park and can play in all conditions
- Their tradional weakness compared to SH has been at centre in my opinion, but not this time as i don't like any SH centre combo all that much (and in Slade they actually have a great distributor).
- loads of depth and no significant injury issues I'm aware of.
- pipe and slippers time for them until the QFs
- lots of rivals have significant issues, injuries or weaknesses
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England will now be facing NZ in the Semi. Arguably by losing the first match, the Boks now have an easier route to the final
 

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