Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions

[Bada-Bing!]

Im still strongly favouring England to win fairly comfortably, hopefully, with a bit of panache.

- Good coach with extensive Japanese experience.
- Solid across the park and can play in all conditions
- Their tradional weakness compared to SH has been at centre in my opinion, but not this time as i don't like any SH centre combo all that much (and in Slade they actually have a great distributor).
- loads of depth and no significant injury issues I'm aware of.
- pipe and slippers time for them until the QFs
- lots of rivals have significant issues, injuries or weaknesses

Ben Youngs, when he's having a bad day and delivering slow ball? Daly at fullback under the high ball? Reacting to changes of momentum in The game as it unfolds.

 

[General Melchett]

England will now be facing NZ in the Semi. Arguably by losing the first match, the Boks now have an easier route to the final

Ireland in the QF ain't no walk in the park for the Boks.

 

[mdaclarke]

Ireland in the QF ain't no walk in the park for the Boks.

I think Ireland then Wales/Australia is an easier route than Scotland then England.

But at that level none of the games are easy

 

[Brigantine]

[link to previous update]

Not much change just from the first game in each pool, as nothing surprising has happened yet.

New Zealand now 100% to top their pool, and now 53% favourites to win SF1. They're back in the #1 ranking spot too.

On the other hand, this is the first time in the history of the RWC that the All Blacks have fallen short of a BP win in a Pool game.​

France got the win, but their chances of getting to the SFs and beyond went down slightly. They needed a more convincing win here to show they're actually a threat to top tier teams.


Note the Ranking Points used here are not the official ones.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Ben Youngs, when he's having a bad day and delivering slow ball? Daly at fullback under the high ball? Reacting to changes of momentum in The game as it unfolds.

I'll give you the fullback issue, but what contending team has perfection at fullback? The SH are in a bit of a mess on this front. Wales if they pick Liam is probably the best of the bunch, and as much as I like him, he lacks the pace to be a world beater - so I dont think English limitations at fullback are critical.

England are fine at scrum half in my opinion. Their issue is if they dont incorporate either Ford OR Slade then their creativity may limited.

 

[ikvat]

Fofana is out for the rest of the competition. He is replaced by P. L. Baressi.

 

[Dai Perk]

First and foremost, love Blood and Mud, it's a hidden gem of a rugby podcast

Definitely my favorite, their rugby history episodes are amazing... I think Blood and Mud, Eggchasers, and The Thistle are my top 3...

 

[Dai Perk]

- pipe and slippers time for them until the QFs

Great line, never heard that one before!

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Fofana is out for the rest of the competition. He is replaced by P. L. Baressi.

Pity. Not seen him play for ages and injuries look like they have caught up with him. At his best he was electrifying.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I'll give you the fullback issue, but what contending team has perfection at fullback? The SH are in a bit of a mess on this front. Wales if they pick Liam is probably the best of the bunch, and as much as I like him, he lacks the pace to be a world beater - so I dont think English limitations at fullback are critical.

England are fine at scrum half in my opinion. Their issue is if they dont incorporate either Ford OR Slade then their creativity may limited.

I am thinking BB at full back for the ABs is pretty close to it. Good under the high ball and when he gets space to attack, boy can he exploit it.

well Youngs can be good, but he can also be inconsistent and can dwell on the ball at the base of the rucks, which slows England down. Our issue still is that this is still a relatively inexperienced team and does not adapt well under pressure to how the game unfolds before them. Well, not that I have seen. Plus there is a lack of real leaders throughout the team compared to 2003 and even 2007.

Tuilagi is also so key to creating go forward ball in the backs. If he does not last the tournament then I see England really struggling to create tries through the backs; as we don't have anyone anywhere like him to replace him. Can't rely solely on Binny to get us over the gain line Mako is coming off a long term injury and I think he won't be fully up to speed when he comes back.

 

[Crags]

I am certain either NZ or Ireland will win it. Japan will be the most exciting team to watch btw.

 

[Brigantine]

[link to previous update]

There have now been some upsets that change some teams' chances considerably...

• Ireland's median projection is now a QF exit (53%),
  • and they drop to 5th place on the pie chart (15%)
  
  
• Scotland, the only team that hasn't scored a try yet, are no longer favourites for 2nd in Pool (25%),
  • and their whisker now extends to 4th in Pool (3.5%)
  
  
• Japan's whisker now reaches to the Final (4.5%),
  • and they're favourites for 1st in Pool (56%).
    
  • They are also 1.0% on the pie chart now, ahead of France (0.4%) and Scotland (0.2%).
    
  • World Rugby Rankings now have them at a record high 8th in the world.
  
  
• New Zealand are at a heightened risk of a QF exit (29%)
• South Africa are now favourites for a SF (63%)
• Fiji are in contention for Last in Pool (45%)
• Uruguay have joined Fiji and Georgia in contention for 3rd in Pool and automatic qualification for France 2023 (21% chance, vs 40% for Georgia and 39% for Fiji)

Chances for a Semi-Final: (vs pre-RWC)

• 72% ( - ) Wales
  
• 71% (-2) New Zealand
  
• 64% (-5) England
  
• 63% (+7) South Africa
• 48% (+8) Australia
• 47% (-10) Ireland
• 15% (+11) Japan
• 14% ( - ) France
• 3.0% (-6.0) Scotland
• 1.8% (-0.7) Argentina
• <0.1% (-2.2) Fiji
  
• <0.1%: Georgia, USA, Italy

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

[link to previous update]

There have now been some upsets that change some teams' chances considerably...

• Ireland's median projection is now a QF exit (53%),
  • and they drop to 5th place on the pie chart (15%)
  
  
• Scotland, the only team that hasn't scored a try yet, are no longer favourites for 2nd in Pool (25%),
  • and their whisker now extends to 4th in Pool (3.5%)
  
  
• Japan's whisker now reaches to the Final (4.5%),
  • and they're favourites for 1st in Pool (56%).
    
  • They are also 1.0% on the pie chart now, ahead of France (0.4%) and Scotland (0.2%).
    
  • World Rugby Rankings now have them at a record high 8th in the world.
  
  
• New Zealand are at a heightened risk of a QF exit (29%)
• South Africa are now favourites for a SF (63%)
• Fiji are in contention for Last in Pool (45%)
• Uruguay have joined Fiji and Georgia in contention for 3rd in Pool and automatic qualification for France 2023 (21% chance, vs 40% for Georgia and 39% for Fiji)

View attachment 7513 View attachment 7514

Chances for a Semi-Final: (vs pre-RWC)

• 72% ( - ) Wales
  
• 71% (-2) New Zealand
  
• 64% (-5) England
  
• 63% (+7) South Africa
• 48% (+8) Australia
• 47% (-10) Ireland
• 15% (+11) Japan
• 14% ( - ) France
• 3.0% (-6.0) Scotland
• 1.8% (-0.7) Argentina
• <0.1% (-2.2) Fiji
  
  [*]<0.1%: Georgia, USA, Italy

Italy made it on to the table. We are a relevant part in this contest and anything could happen. Totally unpredictable in group B.

In all honesty though pie chart reflects the unprecedented overall competitiveness of this edition of the RWC.

 

[TheOvalBall]

This could be a semi-final scenario:

South Africa
Wales

Ireland
England

 

[bushytop]

This could be a semi-final scenario:

South Africa
Wales

Ireland
England

I wouldn't rule out Japan mind... you'd think you guys wouldn't need reminding

 

[Brigantine]

Uruguay got their consolation try vs Georgia, which on it's own would have made their world cup campaign moderately successful. But their chance of 3rd in Pool / AQ RWC2023 is now 0%.
Georgia slightly improve their chances of progressing - their median projection is now 3rd in Pool (53%), their whisker is just shy of getting a QF (2.2%), and their chance of a SF is up to 0.1%
Wales' Lower Quartile projection is now in the Semi-Final region (83%) and they're 98.6% to top Pool D.

This is despite a downgrade to their projected strength because the win over Australia wasn't as convincing as expected.​

For comparison: How it stood before the start of the tournament: (below)
Excuse the inconsistent colours



Likely QF match-ups: as of this morning (& as of before tournament)
QF1

• 56% New Zealand vs Ireland (6.0%)
• 25% New Zealand vs Scotland (31%)
• 18% New Zealand vs Japan (23%)
• 0.2% New Zealand vs Samoa (0.2%)

QF2

• 88% England vs Australia (51%)
• 7.5% France vs Australia (4.0%)
• 2.0% England vs Georgia (1.6%)
• 1.2% England vs Wales (27%)
• 0.8% Argentina vs Australia (0.6%)

QF3

• 74% Wales vs France (42%)
• 13% Wales vs Argentina (16%)
• 7.5% Wales vs England (5.5%)
• 4.0% Wales vs USA (3.0%)
• 1.0% Australia vs France (18%)
• 0.3% Wales vs Tonga (2.2%)
• 0.2% Australia vs Argentina (7.5%)

QF4

• 56% Japan vs South Africa (2.5%)
• 44% Ireland vs South Africa (53%)
• 0.2% Ireland vs Italy (0.2%)
• 0.2% Japan vs Italy ( - )

 

[Brigantine]

The model I made mostly focuses on who wins games, I didn't put too much thought into bonus points and win margins. But since the projections of who progresses from pools depends on it, I'll show what's happening in the model here. Even though a few things seem not-quite-right.

Japan vs Russia:

Japan win 99.7%, draw <0.1%, Russia win 0.3%
Table Points Japan \ Table Points Russia

• 99.2% 5 TP Japan \ Russia 0 TP 99.2%, __________ 2 TP <0.1%
• _0.4% 4 TP Japan \ Russia 0 TP _0.2%, 1 TP 0.2%
• <0.1% 2 TP Japan \ Russia _____________________ 2 TP <0.1%
  
• _0.3% 1 TP Japan \ Russia _________________________________ 4 TP 0.2%, 5 TP <0.1%
  
• <0.1% 0 TP Japan \ Russia _________________________________ 4 TP <0.1%
  
• _
• 100% TB Russia Total: ___ 0 TP 99.4%, 1 TP 0.2%, 2 TP __0.1%, 4 TP 0.3%, 5 TP <0.1%

Australia vs Fiji:

Australia win 81%, draw 1.6%, Fiji win 17%
Table Points Australia \ Table Points Fiji

• 63% 5 TP Australia \ Fiji 0 TP 60%, 1 TP 1.2%, 2 TP _1.4%
• 19% 4 TP Australia \ Fiji 0 TP 8.5%, 1 TP 10%, 2 TP _0.2%
• 0.3% 3 TP Australia \ Fiji ___________________ 2 TP <0.1%, 3 TP 0.3%
• 2.5% 2 TP Australia \ Fiji ___________________ 2 TP _1.2%, 3 TP 0.1%, 4 TP 0.3%, 5 TP 1.0%
  
• 11% 1 TP Australia \ Fiji _________________________________________ 4 TP 9.5%, 5 TP 1.0%
• 5.0% 0 TP Australia \ Fiji ________________________________________ 4 TP 3.5%, 5 TP 1.8%
• _
• 100% TP Fiji Total: _____ 0 TP 69%, 1 TP 11%, 2 TP _3.0%, 3 TP 0.4%, 4 TP _13%, 5 TP 4.0%

France vs Argentina:

France win 67%, draw 2.5%, Argentina win 31%
Table Points France \ Table Points Argentina

• 39% 5 TP France \ Argentina 0 TP 35%, 1 TP 2.0%, 2 TP _2.0%
  
• 28% 4 TP France \ Argentina 0 TP 12%, 1 TP _15%, 2 TP _0.4%
  
• 0.4% 3 TP France \ Argentina ___________________ 2 TP <0.1%, 3 TP _0.3%
  
• 4.0% 2 TP France \ Argentina ___________________ 2 TP _1.8%, 3 TP <0.1%, 4 TP 0.5%, 5 TP 1.8%
  
• 16% 1 TP France \ Argentina __________________________________________ 4 TP 15%, 5 TP 1.4%
  
• 13% 0 TP France \ Argentina __________________________________________ 4 TP 7.0%, 5 TP 6.0%
• _
• 100% TP Argentina Total: ___ 0 TP 47%, 1 TP 17%, 2 TP _4.5%, 3 TP _0.4%, 4 TP 22%, 5 TP 9.0%

New Zealand vs South Africa:

New Zealand win 59%, draw 2.5%, South Africa win 39%
Table Points New Zealand \ Table Points South Africa

• 29% 5 TP New Zealand \ South Africa 0 TP 25%, 1 TP 2.0%, 2 TP 2.0%
  
• 29% 4 TP New Zealand \ South Africa 0 TP 12%, 1 TP _17%, 2 TP 0.5%
  
• 0.4% 3 TP New Zealand \ South Africa ___________________ 2 TP 0.1%, 3 TP _0.3%
  
• 4.0% 2 TP New Zealand \ South Africa ___________________ 2 TP 2.0%, 3 TP <0.1%, 4 TP 0.4%, 5 TP 1.6%
  
• 19% 1 TP New Zealand \ South Africa _________________________________________ 4 TP 17%, 5 TP 1.8%
  
• 18% 0 TP New Zealand \ South Africa _________________________________________ 4 TP 9.0%, 5 TP 9.0%
  
• _
• 100% TP South Africa Total: ________ 0 TP 37%, 1 TP _19%, 2 TP 4.5%, 3 TP 0.4%, 4 TP 26%, 5 TP 13%

I want to show some perspective on the upsets that have happened so far...
projected likelihood calculated before the RWC, of the outcomes that eventually occurred:

Match 1: Japan vs Russia

• Japan to win: 99.7%
• Japan BP win: 99.2%
• Russia loss w/o BP: 99.4%

Match 2: Australia vs Fiji

• Australia to win: 81%
• Australia BP win: 63%
• Fiji loss w/o BP: 69%

Match 3: France vs Argentina

• France to win: 67%
• France to not get BP win: 61%
  
• Argentina to get at least a losing BP: 53%

Match 4: New Zealand vs South Africa

• New Zealand to win: 59%
• New Zealand to not get BP win: 71%
• South Africa loss w/o BP: 37% (Level 0 upset)

Match 5: Italy vs Namibia

• Italy to win: 96.0%
• Italy BP win: 91.0%
• Namibia loss w/o BP: 93.0%

Match 6: Ireland vs Scotland

• Ireland to win: 89%
• Ireland BP win: 77%
• Scotland loss w/o BP: 81%

Match 7: England vs Tonga

• England to win: 100%
• England BP win: >99.9%
• Tonga loss w/o BP: 100%

Match 8: Wales vs Georgia

• Wales to win: 99.4%
• Wales BP win: 98.4%
• Georgia loss w/o BP: 98.8%

Match 9: Russia vs Samoa

• Samoa to win: 70%
• Samoa BP win: 44% (Level 0 upset)
• Russia loss w/o BP: 52%

Match 10: Fiji vs Uruguay

• Uruguay to win: 2.2% (Level 3 upset)
• Uruguay to get at least a losing BP: 4.5% (Level 2 upset)
• Fiji to not get BP win: 5.0% (Level 2 upset)
• Uruguay to win a game at RWC 2019: 13% (Level 1 upset)
• Uruguay to earn a table point at RWC 2019: 24% (Level 1 upset)

Match 11: Italy vs Canada

• Italy to win: 96.0%
• Italy BP win: 91.0%
• Canada loss w/o BP: 92.5%

Match 12: England vs USA

• England to win: 99.9%
• England BP win: 99.8%
• USA loss w/o BP: 99.8%

Match 13: Argentina vs Tonga

• Argentina to win: 75%
• Argentina BP win: 50%
• Tonga loss w/o BP: 59%

Match 14: Japan vs Ireland

• Japan to win: 6.0% (Level 2 upset)
• Japan to get at least a losing BP: 12% (Level 1 upset)
• Ireland to not get BP win: 15% (Level 1 upset)

Match 15: South Africa vs Namibia

• South Africa to win: 100%
• South Africa BP win: 100%
• Namibia loss w/o BP: 100%

Match 16: Georgia vs Uruguay

• Georgia to win: 88%
• Georgia BP win: 74%
• Uruguay loss w/o BP: 79%

Match 17: Australia vs Wales

• Wales to win: 65%
• Wales to not get BP win: 62%
• Australia to get at least a losing BP: 55%

Match 18: Scotland vs Samoa

• Scotland to win: 97.5%
• Scotland BP win: 94.0%
• Samoa loss w/o BP: 95.5%

The Brighton mirale, Japan vs South Africa in 2015, would have been about 1.2% - a level 3 upset.

Level 0 is 25% - 49%, level 1 is 10% - 24%, level 2 is 2.5% - 9.5%, level 3 is 0.5% - 2.2%. Level 4 would be <0.1% - 0.4%, and 0% would be level 5.

 

[Brigantine]

Projections of remaining pool games:
(Stuff has their own win/loss/draw game forecasts)

Match 19: France vs USA

• France to win: 84% (L1)
  
• France BP win: 66%
  
• USA loss w/o BP: 72%
  
  • France to get at least a losing BP: 96.0% (L2)
    
  • USA to not get BP win: 97.0% (L2)

Match 20: New Zealand vs Canada - 100% (L5)

Match 21: Georgia vs Fiji

• Fiji to win: 50%
• Fiji to not get BP win: 79% (L1)
  
• Georgia to get at least a losing BP: 72%
  • Fiji to get at least a losing BP: 75%
  • Georgia to not get BP win: 81% (L1)

Match 22: Ireland vs Russia - 100% (L5)

Match 23: South Africa vs Italy

• South Africa win: 99.6% (L4)
• South Africa BP win: 99.2% (L3)
• Italy loss w/o BP: 99.4% (L3)
  • South Africa to get at least a losing BP: >99.9% (L4)
  • Italy to not get BP win: >99.9% (L4)

Match 24: Australia vs Uruguay - >99.9% (L4)

Match 25: England vs Argentina

• England to win: 95.0% (L2)
• England BP win: 90% (L1)
• Argentina loss w/o BP: 92.0% (L2)
  • England to get at least a losing BP: 99.2% (L3)
  • Argentina to not get BP win: 99.4% (L3)

Match 26: Japan vs Samoa

• Japan to win: 97.0% (L2)
• Japan BP win: 93.5% (L2)
• Samoa loss w/o BP: 95.0% (L2)
  • Japan to get at least a losing BP: 99.6% (L4)
  • Samoa to not get BP win: 99.6% (L4)

Projections for further games subject to change based on earlier results

Match 27: New Zealand vs Namibia - L5

Match 28: France vs Tonga

• France to win (L2)
• France BP win: 80% (L1)
• Tonga loss w/o BP: 84% (L1)
  • France at least BP (L3)
  • Tonga no BP win (L3)

Match 29: South Africa vs Canada - L5

Match 30: Argentina vs USA

• Argentina to win: 75% (L1)
  
• Argentina BP win: 51%
• USA loss w/o BP: 59%
  • Argentina at least BP (L2)
  • USA no BP win (L2)

Match 31: Scotland vs Russia - L4

Match 32: Wales vs Fiji

• Wales to win (L3)
• Wales BP win (L2)
• Fiji loss w/o BP (L2)
  • Wales at least BP (L4)
  • Fiji no BP win (L4)

Match 33: Australia vs Georgia

• Australia to win (L2)
• Australia BP win (L2)
• Georgia loss w/o BP (L2)
  • Australia at least BP (L3)
  • Georgia no BP win (L3)

Match 34: New Zealand vs Italy - win L5, BP L4

Match 35: England vs France

• England to win (L2)
• England BP win: 79% (L1)
• France loss w/o BP: 83% (L1)
  • England at least BP (L3)
  • France no BP win (L3)

Match 36: Ireland vs Samoa - win L5, BP L4

Match 37: Namibia vs Canada

• Canada to win: 50%
• Canada at least BP: 74%
  
• Namibia at least BP: 73%
  • Canada no BP win: 80% (L1)
  • Namibia no BP win 81% (L1)

Match 38: USA vs Tonga

• USA to win: 57%
• USA no BP win: 72%
• Tonga at least BP: 63%
  • USA at least BP: 82% (L1)
  • Tonga no BP win: 87% (L1)

Match 39: Wales vs Uruguay - L5

Match 40: Japan vs Scotland

• Japan to win: 51%
• Japan at least BP: 76% (L1)
• Scotland at least BP: 71%
  
  • Japan no BP win: 78% (L1)
  • Scotland no BP win 82% (L1)

 

[Goodey]

I love this stuff. I particularly like what it says about England being in no danger of losing their pool games, though I'm sure by kick off I'll be nervy as hell anyway.

Scotland - Japan and Fiji-Georgia being dead heats is pretty great.

I'm surprised that Australia-Georgia isn't considered more certain, like say England-Tonga and Ireland-Samoa are considered certain. I get that Australia have been shaky against top teams lately but they've always comfortably stuffed tier 2 teams.

 

[Brigantine]

Another experimental format: