To me there are 6 teams with realistic chances of winning the world cup. The biggest factors will be
1. not needing to win more than 3 tough games in a row
2. before a tough knockout game, having played a tough game in the last 2 weeks. The winner of pool B and D get a relatively easy QF, but still tough, so wouldn't have needed a tough game in the last 2 weeks of pool play.
3. before a tough knockout game, having had 2 tough games during the world cup.
Australia has their two hardest pool games in the first weeks. IF they win both, they at least get an easy QF. For the semi they'll be well placed, as they would only have had one tough game in the 2 weeks prior. IF they win the semi they'll be perfectly placed for the final. IF they don't win both their tough pool games, they won't be in such a good position for their QF.
Wales is in the same position as Australia.
New Zealand only have one tough game in the pool, but IF they win will have a relatively easy QF. For the semi they'll be well placed, as they would only have had one tough game in the 2 weeks prior. IF they win the semi they'll be perfectly placed for the final. IF they don't win their tough pool game, they won't be in such a good position for their QF.
South Africa is in the same position as NZ
But the loser of the NZ SA game will play Ireland in the QF. So let's see how good Ireland's drw is.
Ireland have one tough game first up, and two semi tough games at other points, one just prior to the QF. They won't be particularly prepared for the QF either, but slightly more so than their opposition. IF they win their QF, they are a good chance to win the semi. Now, for the final, the same semi tough game that gave them an advantage over their QF opposition will hinder their chances, as they have had 3 almost tough games in a row. can't have it both ways.
If England play a second string team against France in their last pool game, they will meet all the criteria all the way through.
So, based on these criteria alone
QF1 England will beat The loser of Aus vs Wales
QF2 Winner of NZ v SA will beat Scotland
QF3 Winner of Aus v Wales will beat winner of Frn v Arg
QF4 Ireland will beat loser of NZ v SA
SF1 England v winner of NZ v SA is anyones game
SF2 Ireland v winner of Wal v Aus is anyones game
Final won't be won by Ireland. is anyone elses game.
I'd say England is probably better placed for the SF than their opposition
Ireland is probably best placed for the other semi.
So perhaps England to beat Ireland in the final.
But noone has particularly worse draws, except it will be tough for Ireland to go all the way.
Argentina and France back to back weeks and that's even before talking about QF, semi and final. 5 matches versus tier 1 sides in a row. Tough ask for England to get to the final and win it on the back of that draw.
Of course, I hope I am wrong, but the pessimist in me and the fact I have doubts this England side can adapt to the game as it unfolds - see Scotland and Wales in this year's 6 nations, plus a captain in Farrell who is still pretty new to the captaincy role for England and has his brain fart moments under pressure like not wrapping his arms around when tackling. Yeah, you can say I have my doubts.
they could easly beat argentina and france with second string teams though, s they don't haev to play their full strength team for 5 games in a row. especillay f they can afford to lose one of thise games.
England have the worst draw, not because of the competition, but playing France and Argentina last is very tough. That's five Tier 1 games they need to win in 5 weeks, in contrast in Pool A/B the top two seeds are playing each other first and then get to rotate and rest players the rest of the way through (especially NZ/SA).
i think having a recent tough game before your quarterfinal is a massive advantage. as is having a tough pool in general. i had predicted the all blacks would lose the quarterfinal, whoever they were to come up against, prior to the 2007 world cup for this very reason. They would likely play second place in an incredibly tight pool between agentina, france, and ireland, with Those pool games just prior to the quarterfinla. My other reasonign being second place would have lost a game in their pool and had something to work on.
At the same time, I think winning several tough games in a row is difficult. more than 3, I'd say. So the ideal draw would be to have more two tough pool games, as your second and third to last games in your pool.
Also, Teams that can afford to play second string teams for 2 or 3 of their pool games have a massive advantage in being able to win the world cup.
Ok. Getting totally psyched. I have a few remaining questions for all you experts out there...
1. The weather conditions are going to play a big role. Which team (besides Japan) benefits most from this, and which has the biggest disadvantage?
2. The world rankings changed again, but nobody, including the Irish from what I can tell, believe in them. Will the winner of the RWC solve that argument for a while, at least?
3. As the Pro14 gets going, the best teams will have theoretically lost the most players for the RWC. Which team(s) will seek to benefit from this early on to get some easy league table points?
4. Which referees worry you the most? I.e., who would you least like to see in charge of your country's biggest match?
Thanks y'all!
i think the weather will only be a factor in the pool stages, particularly the early pool stages, as the weather later in the tournament will be pretty good. Ireland I think will make best use of the conditions. they have the kicking to put the other teams under pressure and the catching to nullify the opposing threat. but, for them, it won't matter. they are just as well off if they come first or second in their pool anyway, and will find it very easy to get to at least second regardless.
the world cup affords the winners bragging rights but doesn't tell you who the best team in the world is.
