Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions

[FrenchFan]

Funny article on the stupidity of the rankings. Even WR with Pichot doesn't believe in it.

https://www.independent.ie/sport/ru...l-wales-vs-ireland-permutations-38451348.html

 

[bushytop]

Funny article on the stupidity of the rankings. Even WR with Pichot doesn't believe in it.

https://www.independent.ie/sport/ru...l-wales-vs-ireland-permutations-38451348.html

The funniest thing is how everyone was absolutely fine with them until the All Blacks lost a few and drew a few over the course of 2 years and as a result lost the position... albeit temporarily I'd imagine.

 

[Brigantine]

Funny article on the stupidity of the rankings. Even WR with Pichot doesn't believe in it.

https://www.independent.ie/sport/ru...l-wales-vs-ireland-permutations-38451348.html

Sounds like someone's salty about not being in the top 10!

If he's got a problem with Argentina only playing against stronger opponents, he could maybe organize some more Pumas vs T2 action. Just a thought! No ranking system is going to favour a team that loses all the time.

EDIT: There is some truth to the idea that the best/worst team within a silo will be over/under-rated by the rankings. That's because there aren't enough games between teams in different silos to bring the RP levels into a full equilibrium the same way (as the RP gaps between teams within the same silo). This is especially relevant outside of T1.

Part of the answer to that is the 2x weighting on RWC finals tournaments, which could afford to be extended to more inter-silo tests. Another part is simply arranging more competitive-ish games between silos. The other is taking the ranking positions with a grain of salt and using the quantitative RP gap when you interpret them.
(e.g. the current top 5 are essentially all on the same level, Australia is close/competitive, then the next group is way down. Argentina are closer to Scotland than to Italy. Japan/Fiji/Georgia are essentially on the same level. Italy will only beat France/Scotland in about 1 in 10 matches)

It's a quantitative, probablistic model. Just because journalists don't understand it very well doesn't mean it's flawed!

 

[TRF_Olyy]

If Pichots against it it probably means it's a good thing

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

If Pichots against it it probably means it's a good thing

Argentina clearly deserve to be number one because they'd have won 20 6 nations by now if we let them in after the 2007 world cup.

 

[Leinster Fan]

He thinks it's too "mathematical." Like wtf is the alternative?

 

[bushytop]

He thinks it's too "mathematical." Like wtf is the alternative?

Guesstimates?

 

[Bada-Bing!]

It's a shame this wasn't the RWC final in 1999:



Instead of this:

 

[General Melchett]

Guesstimates?

Good old fashioned bribery and corruption.

 

[Brigantine]

Penultimate update using rankings instead of actual RWC Pool Game results.

Only 6 teams exchanged RP this week. The top 5 teams still very close. (statistically, any of them might actually be best in the world right now - and just unlucky)

1. 89.40 New Zealand
   
2. 88.87 Ireland (+1.51)
   
3. 88.13 England
4. 87.92 Wales (-1.51)
   
5. 86.82 South Africa
6. 84.05 Australia
7. 81.00 Scotland (+1.13)
8. 79.72 France
9. 77.43 Fiji (+0.45)
10. 77.21 Japan
11. 76.29 Argentina
12. 73.29 Georgia (-1.13)
13. 72.04 Italy
14. 71.94 USA
15. 71.04 Tonga (-0.45)
16. 69.08 Samoa

For comparison: 2019-08-26, 2019-08-19 (There's also a small change to the algorithms since last week)

This one to show more visually how close the top teams are:

 

[Bada-Bing!]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/...-the-all-blacks-will-use-and-others-will-copy

Rugby World Cup-winning teams in the professional era (post 1995) have had an average of 50 caps per player in their starting XVs, with five and a half years' of test rugby experience behind each player.

In addition, teams that win the Rugby World Cup typically have an average age of 28, play 52 tests in a Rugby World Cup cycle, and win at least 61 per cent of those games.

Only NZ, England, Ireland, and Wales meet the criteria this RWC cycle.

Also, every Rugby World Cup-winning team since 1995, bar the All Blacks in 2015, had been knocked out in the quarterfinal stage of the preceding tournament.

 

[Reiser99]

Only NZ, England, Ireland, Wales and Scotland meet the criteria this RWC cycle.

Also, every Rugby World Cup-winning team since 1995, bar the All Blacks in 2015, had been knocked out in the quarterfinal stage of the preceding tournament.

Don't get Irish hopes up like that. They might actually start believing they can get past the quarterfinal. Cruel *******!

 

[TRF_Olyy]

We average over 50 caps per player??
Genuinely surprised at that!


Edit: only 8 players with over 50 caps but some of them have 80 odd so it brings the number up I guess

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

We average over 50 caps per player??
Genuinely surprised at that!


Edit: only 8 players with over 50 caps but some of them have 80 odd so it brings the number up I guess

At the point of squad announcement the combined caps were 1007 averaging out at 32 each.

Cole, Launch, Marler and Lawes account for 275 of those and are likely to be bench at best. Ford and Jospeh possibly too and they've got nearly 100 between them.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Funnily enough the only "solution" to the rankings would be to make it even more complicated mathematically. Kinda annoying hearing people in a position of authority and power whinging about how something isn't good enough but then not putting forward a viable alternative...

 

[Bada-Bing!]

This is the 1014 video referred to in the stuff article. Corrected my earlier post to remove Scotland, as they don't meet their criteria.

 

[General Melchett]

Kinda annoying hearing people in a position of authority and power whinging about how something isn't good enough but then not putting forward a viable alternative...

Sounds like the NIrish backstop

 

[Bada-Bing!]

And so we reach the most dramatic and for England fans most memorable Rugby World Cup final of the 8 so far:

 

[Umaga's Witness]

The funniest thing is how everyone was absolutely fine with them until the All Blacks lost a few and drew a few over the course of 2 years and as a result lost the position... albeit temporarily I'd imagine.

The funniest thing is how everyone was absolutely fine with them until the All Blacks lost a few and drew a few over the course of 2 years and as a result lost the position... albeit temporarily I'd imagine.

clearly they were woefully wrong for a few weeks there, but they look about right now

 

[Bada-Bing!]