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Despite what players say, I don't believe in momentum within a single NFL game. Maybe over the course of a season. I believe in improving tactics, a slice of luck and increasing morale creating the illusion of momentum. The sport is far too dependent on factors like tipped balls, blown coverages etc that can swing 'momentum wildly'. I think it's more that one coaching team starts to get the upper hand tactically and the players feed off of it. In the current NFL with parity there is almost no momentum. If you don't bring your top level and the opponent does, nothing is going to save you (just ask the Cardinals, Bucs and Patriots in this past crazy week).Is Momentum Real? - This article could apply to all team sports, so I figured this thread would be as good as any to post it in.
What we can learn about momentum in sports from science, love, religion and a TV star
The word gets tossed around a lot, but is momentum real? One reporter went looking for answers, finding small clues in increasingly unlikely places.www.espn.com
I do remember one particular game that screamed momentum. About 20 years ago, Giants @ 49ers in the playoffs. Giants storm out to like a 4TD lead and are about to make it 5TDs when Shockey drops an incredibly simple catch in the endzone. 4TDs up against a not particularly exceptional 49ers and I immediately felt that things were going to go very very wrong, and you could see it in both sets of players that something unusual had happened. We ended up barely scoring another point and getting kicked out the playoffs. But that game to me was the exception that proves the rule. Probably the Falcons Superbowl loss to the Patriots was similar, you can sometimes see a choke coming from a mile off.
In Giants Superbowl years you get guys like Osi talking about momentum across the season. But then he also explains that the Giants defensive coordinator Spagnola (currently at Chiefs) would openly admit that his defensive scheming will get stronger as the season goes on as he gets more film to examine on opponents and can counteract their offensive tendencies. So that might feel like momentum to players like Osi, but he is also clearly aware it isn't some kind of mystical force leading the Giants to victory, its big brains learning how to break down other big brains.
Now momentum in rugby I can beleive in a little more. Because once you get on top on a game of rugby it is easier to stay on top and suffocate your opponent, crushing their morale (watch any Italy game!). Whereas in the NFL too much is down to a slice of good fortune.