This is the rationale behind my opinion:
Let me start with Charles: CO appears to feel quite conf on his feed because 99% of the times he gets dropped people don't jump in due to the fear of getting caught in a sub. Imo that won't work with IS for several reasons, mainly because
- IM has a better stand-up game imo.
- IM will not shy away from jumping in if CO lands on his back
- IM imo has the power to decide the direction of the fight (feet/ground). Maybe not 'at will', but close enough
So i see the fight starting with IM trying to dominate the stand-up, and if that doesn't yield good enough results, he will attempt to take him down, which i am pretty confident he will manage to do. Once there i see CO almost getting a sub a couple of times, but getting beaten up in the process.
To be honest, the only way i see IM losing is him being reckless. The fact that he's been knocked out is a pro for IM imo. Him and his staff dont like to lose (more than others i mean) and i don't see them making the same mistake again.
How could OC win? Making it very messy. Tons of clinch and odd positions.