Is Warren Gatland Simply a Lucky Coach?

[Leonormous Boozer]

Garland has only ever beaten South Africa once....EJ did it with Japan!

If you exclude the Lions he has a 2-0-32 record v Tri nations sides Vs Jones 15-1-14 record and Schmidt's 5-0-5 record it's inconceivable to me how anyone could think he's anywhere close, you could argue his grand slams against Schmidt but that's two slams in 8 6nations v 2 championships in 4 so that's nowhere near enough to gain him back what he loses in his abysmal record against the SH.
I think all you can say about Gatland is that he's a fantastic club coach, hard to beat in Europe as an international coach and got lucky in both his Lions tours insofar as his opposition were both significantly worse than they had been at the previous world cup which is the level our media would portray them to be at. I can't say Jones or Schmidt would have done better because had Ben Smith and Crotty not been injured in the tests and SBW not red carded it would have been impossible to contain NZ for 80minutes but that did happen for Gats and he faced their face uninspired backline, it all screams good fortune to me, nothing that that's a huge criticism, take it, run and increase your stock Gats because it'll only make life easier.

Just to go into this further and debunk any possible rebuttals of Wales not having the players to win against SH sides (I'm up for a flight in 2 and a half hours and can't sleep), Wales had more representation than anyone in the wins over Australia and more than Ireland in the wins over NZ as well as having the captain and player of the series on both occasions. Also, Irelanunder Schmidt have beaten SH sides with pretty depleted sides, I doubt there's a Welsh fan on the planet that would say that they haven't fielded a stronger team than any of the following in the past 9 years...

Japan: Goromaru; Yamada, Sau, Tatekawa, Matsushima; K Ono, Tanaka; Mikami, Horie, Hatakeyama, Thompson, H Ono, Leitch, Broadhurst, Tui.

Ireland: 15. J Payne, 14. A Trimble, 13. R Henshaw, 12. L Marshall, 11. K Earls, 10. P Jackson, 9. C Murray, 8. J Heaslip, 7. J Murphy, 6. CJ Stander, 5. D Toner, 4. I Henderson, 3. M Ross, 2. R Best, 1. J Mcgrath

Substitutes: 16. S Cronin, 17. F Bealham, 18. T Furlong, 19. U Delane, 20. R Ruddock, 21. K Marmion, 22. I Madigan, 23. C Gilroy

15. Rob Kearney
14. Andrew Trimble
13. Jared Payne
12. Robbie Henshaw
11. Simon Zebo
10. Johnny Sexton
9. Conor Murray
1. Jack McGrath
2. Rory Best
3. Tadhg Furlong
4. Devin Toner
5. Ultan Dillane
6. CJ Stander
7. Jordi Murphy
8. Jamie Heaslip
Replacements:
16. Sean Cronin
17. Cian Healy
18. Finlay Bealham
19. Donnacha Ryan
20. Josh van der Flier
21. Kieran Marmion/Luke McGrath
22. Joey Carbery
23. Garry Ringrose

 

[The Jones Boy]

I think all you can say about Gatland is that he's a fantastic club coach, hard to beat in Europe as an international coach and got lucky in both his Lions tours insofar as his opposition were both significantly worse than they had been at the previous world cup which is the level our media would portray them to be at. I can't say Jones or Schmidt would have done better because had Ben Smith and Crotty not been injured in the tests and SBW not red carded it would have been impossible to contain NZ for 80minutes but that did happen for Gats and he faced their face uninspired backline

I think thats a perspicacious observance that holds considerable merit.

 

[The Jones Boy]

i magine they wouldve lost. eddie hasnt coached a team like the lions so wouldve totally fcked it up. this also includes schmidt.
gatland made his mistakes in aus and didnt repeat those. he landed in Nz with the complete ownership of the changingRoom. i doubt eddie wouldve had the belief of the non england players.
gatland did an amazing job that no other current coach wouldve been able to do.

All the more reason that the sports editor at the NZ Herald and that maggot Chris Rattue should be hung drawn and quartered at the NZ RFU headquarters.
I'm still deeply embittered about the clown garbage they did to Gatland in their hideous rag, for a variety of reasons.
The NZ Herald has no class.

 

[profitius]

If you exclude the Lions he has a 2-0-32 record v Tri nations sides Vs Jones 15-1-14 record and Schmidt's 5-0-5 record it's inconceivable to me how anyone could think he's anywhere close, you could argue his grand slams against Schmidt but that's two slams in 8 6nations v 2 championships in 4 so that's nowhere near enough to gain him back what he loses in his abysmal record against the SH.
I think all you can say about Gatland is that he's a fantastic club coach, hard to beat in Europe as an international coach and got lucky in both his Lions tours insofar as his opposition were both significantly worse than they had been at the previous world cup which is the level our media would portray them to be at. I can't say Jones or Schmidt would have done better because had Ben Smith and Crotty not been injured in the tests and SBW not red carded it would have been impossible to contain NZ for 80minutes but that did happen for Gats and he faced their face uninspired backline, it all screams good fortune to me, nothing that that's a huge criticism, take it, run and increase your stock Gats because it'll only make life easier.

His record against the SH big 3 isn't great but in many of those matches Wales blew it in the last few minutes because of a mental blockage about beating the SH sides. Schmidt has a good record but its a great period to play Australia and South Africa since they're both at their lowest ebb for many decades.
He got to a world cup semi final and was UNLUCKY when Warburton was sent off against France.
Any close game between Ireland and Wales is usually won by Wales. He has Schmidts number.
He knocked hosts England out of the last world cup when Wales were being battered and had multiple injuries.


You can't compare Eddie Jones record to Gatlands since EJ has way more resources. Having more resources in charge of the Lions, Gatlands record doesn't look too bad and he has shown he is well capable of beating SH opposition. People will say he got lucky due to NZ mistakes but mistakes come from pressure and he is good at putting teams under pressure. I also thought he handled the tour very well.


I reckon EJ and Schmidt didn't think the Lions had much of a chance in NZ so stayed out of it to protect their reputations. Gatland the clown took up the challenge and has now enhanced his reputation. Howley and Farrell have also enhanced their reputations.

 

[profitius]

All the more reason that the sports editor at the NZ Herald and that maggot Chris Rattue should be hung drawn and quartered at the NZ RFU headquarters.
I'm still deeply embittered about the clown garbage they did to Gatland in their hideous rag, for a variety of reasons.
The NZ Herald has no class.

They're the real clowns. If they done any research they would have known that Gatland always turns things like that to his advantage.

 

[mania]

I'm still deeply embittered about the clown garbage they did to Gatland in their hideous rag, for a variety of reasons.
The NZ Herald has no class.

agree but dude dont fall for it. the only reason herald did it is because it caused such ruckus the first time. its not even original.
unimaginative, repetitive rubbish from a tabloid thats a real embarrassment. it was definately low class but dont let them know that it got the reaction they wanted. like all trolls they should be ignored so they can wither and die.
i personally boycott all things NZHerald

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

His record against the SH big 3 isn't great but in many of those matches Wales blew it in the last few minutes because of a mental blockage about beating the SH sides. Schmidt has a good record but its a great period to play Australia and South Africa since they're both at their lowest ebb for many decades.
He got to a world cup semi final and was UNLUCKY when Warburton was sent off against France.
Any close game between Ireland and Wales is usually won by Wales. He has Schmidts number.
He knocked hosts England out of the last world cup when Wales were being battered and had multiple injuries.


You can't compare Eddie Jones record to Gatlands since EJ has way more resources. Having more resources in charge of the Lions, Gatlands record doesn't look too bad and he has shown he is well capable of beating SH opposition. People will say he got lucky due to NZ mistakes but mistakes come from pressure and he is good at putting teams under pressure. I also thought he handled the tour very well.


I reckon EJ and Schmidt didn't think the Lions had much of a chance in NZ so stayed out of it to protect their reputations. Gatland the clown took up the challenge and has now enhanced his reputation. Howley and Farrell have also enhanced their reputations.

Schmidt's number? 1-1-1 record.
Worse SH sides? 6 matches with 1 win in 2014 v Schmidt's 2 for 2 (Couldn't beat Australia in two attempts)
Wales mental block? Indication of weak coaching.
Jones's resources? Japan. It's also a 32 and 2 record, that's unforgivable.

I know you love a bit of Schmidt bashing but these arguments are so weak I can't imagine you have much faith in them.

 

[munstermuffin]

I'd question that, apparently he is not well liked amongst the players. Can't imagine any non-welsh from the Aus tour have fond memories.
Senior backs throwing the game plan out the window in the 2nd test, as well, suggests what they think of that. We'd have lost that game, and the series, without the Faletau try.

Rumours are Farrell and Paul Stridgeon were the 2 key guys in management team.

 

[munstermuffin]

Man I wish Declan Kidney got the win all them years ago when we were unlucky in 2012. (The day Tony Buckley had a stormer).
Because on alot of logic here it seems once you get a result away to New Zealand then any other achievement does not matter.

For the records too -
Schmidt can't be judged as he hasn't played NZ in New Zealand yet.
Eddie Jones for Aus has played New Zealand 11 times with 5 wins and 6 losses. 45% - Japan lost only game vs NZ so overall 41.66% win ratio.
In comparison - Schmidt is played 3 - Won 1 - 33%
Gatland -
Ireland Played 1 vs NZ and lost.
Wales Played 10 lost 10
Lions - Played 3 - 1 Loss, 1 Win, 1 Draw.
Overall win record - 7.14%

On SH Teams
Schmidt
Vs NZ - 1 Win 2 Losses
Vs Aus - 2 Wins 1 Loss
Vs SA - 2 Wins 2 Losses

Overall - 5 Wins 5 Losses - 50% Wins

Gatland
(Ireland)
Vs NZ - 0 Win 1 Losses
Vs Aus - 0 Wins 3 Losses
Vs SA - 0 Wins 4 Losses
(Wales)
Vs NZ - 0 Win 10 Losses
Vs Aus - 1 Wins 8 Losses
Vs SA - 1 Wins 10 Losses
(Lions)
Vs NZ - 1 Win 1 Losses 1 Draw
Vs Aus - 2 Wins 1 Losses

Overall - 5 Wins, 1 Draw, 38 Losses - 11% Win Record (6.66% Win Record as Welsh Boss)

Eddie Jones
(Aus)
Vs NZ - 5 Win 6 Losses
Vs Aus - N/A
Vs SA - 4 Wins 7 Losses 1 Draw
(Japan)
Vs NZ - 0 Win 1 Losses
Vs Aus - N/A
Vs SA - 1 Wins 0 Losses
(Eng)
Vs NZ - N/A
Vs Aus - 4 Win 0 Losses
Vs SA - 1 Wins 0 Losses

Overall - 15 Wins, 14 losses, 1 Draw. 50% win.

 

[General Melchett]

Gatland also benefited from a Lancaster led England at the last World Cup. Had Jones been in charge at the point then Wales would have most certainly gone out at the group stage.

 

[ncurd]

There has to be some fair play to Gatland on this one even though Lancaster did pretty much everything wrong in that RWC campaign, I and others may have been utterly livid about team selection. Most still thought we'd win Wales were too injury ravaged and we'd beaten them in Cardiff that year.

Whatever the reasons they managed to capitalise on the worst English campaign in Rugby World Cup history despite having the personel to be real contenders to go far, a semi-final should of been a minimum goal for that side.

Either way Wales didn't knock England out Australia did Point is they get some credit for staying in the match.

Propblem is a lot of Lancaster mistakes in that campaign I'd level at Gatland in this one. Moving Farrell to 12 was not an inspired decision just common sense that should of been the plan day 1....or at least you know tried and practiced before the second test.

 

[munstermuffin]

Just to add in it's hard to compare a Schmidt Ireland win vs NZ with a Gatland Lions win vs NZ etc. As 1 had the pick of a small nation with limitations in some areas. The other had the pick of 4 Nations with no limitations really.

Like people say oh Jones or Schmidt wouldn't be the same. But how do we know? Like how effective would Schmidt be with the same deck or Jones?
Now equally I will add I don't think the style would've been much better had Schmidt been there. (It may have been) but just comparing Gatland Lions to Schmidt Ireland is like comparing a mans nuts to a womans peaches.

 

[valley commando]

I disagree tbh i think eddie would have done better in terms of selection and dealing with the media.
He coached aus to a RWC final in 2003 loss to england
Assistant coach to SA to win RWC 2007 win against england
Coached japs to a big win over SA in 2015
Then england to back to back six nations 2016/2017

Yes he hasnt done a lions team or one like but you cant deny his record or results.

And he prob wouldnt have picked howley as attack coach

I just think he would have done a better job, a draw in NZ is awesome achievement but we had it right there to win.

For God's sake lets hope EJ never gets to coach the Lions

 

[valley commando]

i'll agree to disagree.

There is a lot of ******** talked on here about Gatland, suggesting Shmidt and Jones as better coaches than Gats is ridiculous, your comments are spot on, some have made Gatland Knocking a new sport just as they have previously with most things Welsh or Welsh connected.

 

[valley commando]

His record against the SH big 3 isn't great but in many of those matches Wales blew it in the last few minutes because of a mental blockage about beating the SH sides. Schmidt has a good record but its a great period to play Australia and South Africa since they're both at their lowest ebb for many decades.
He got to a world cup semi final and was UNLUCKY when Warburton was sent off against France.
Any close game between Ireland and Wales is usually won by Wales. He has Schmidts number.
He knocked hosts England out of the last world cup when Wales were being battered and had multiple injuries.


You can't compare Eddie Jones record to Gatlands since EJ has way more resources. Having more resources in charge of the Lions, Gatlands record doesn't look too bad and he has shown he is well capable of beating SH opposition. People will say he got lucky due to NZ mistakes but mistakes come from pressure and he is good at putting teams under pressure. I also thought he handled the tour very well.


I reckon EJ and Schmidt didn't think the Lions had much of a chance in NZ so stayed out of it to protect their reputations. Gatland the clown took up the challenge and has now enhanced his reputation. Howley and Farrell have also enhanced their reputations.

Post of the month award for this.

 

[ncurd]

So VC's arguement to why Gatland is brilliant is just 'HES BRILLIANT WOOOOO SHUT UP WITH YOUR STATS!!!!'

 

[munstermuffin]

Valley Commando - You just go around disliking actual facts and trolling. Like do you actually do any useful input or troll professionally?
Just out of curiosity
Like everyone has a great debate and it seems the only thing common amongst everyone is that they disregard your comments as it's just trolling and badly at that. Just curious

 

[valley commando]

Valley Commando - You just go around disliking actual facts and trolling. Like do you actually do any useful input or troll professionally?
Just out of curiosity
Like everyone has a great debate and it seems the only thing common amongst everyone is that they disregard your comments as it's just trolling and badly at that. Just curious

Once again we have that over used inappropriate word troll your like a ******* big kid with your stupid comments

 

[munstermuffin]

Once again we have that over used inappropriate word troll your like a ******* big kid with your stupid comments

Thanks. Just needed to clarify you were the troll and everyone was on same line not taking you serious. And well at least you show it too with that kind of reply. Won't go further in you do the craft perfectly solo. Enjoy the summer holidays

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

so what is it when a coach achieves the inconcievable? beats all the odds stacked against him and keeps his team together enough to draw the series?

What it is is circular reasoning. You cannot say they couldn't hypothetically have coached the Lions better than Gatland because they haven't coached the Lions. That is the logic of the WRU "This player can't be better than the incumbent because the incumbent has played for Wales and this other guy hasn't!" It's also the catch 22 in jobs where to get a job you need experience and to get that experience, you need the job. You need to judge their coaching credentials outside the Lions as it's the only thing you can compare and by pretty much every measure, Jones has had more success than Gatland. How many records and serious achievements are held by Gatlands Wales? 6N successes yes, probably one of the most successful 6N coaches. Outside that, it's actually extremely poor. Bearing in mind as well that Wales success coincided with Ireland, England and France all playing shockingly. Since all these teams have upped their games, Wales has gone backwards again. Wales has never shown the ability to consistently beat other strong teams, essentially the ultimate flat track bullies utilising the ultimate flat track bully tactics of bludgeoning their way to victory. Wales peak coincided with other nations troughs, now other nations are reaching peaks again, Wales can't compete. The players haven't got worse, they simply can't bully their way to victory any more.