Explosion in November tests?

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Has there ever been so many internationals in November?

http://pulse-static-files.s3.amazon...2e9c3cd/November_Internationals_list_2016.pdf

Heck, the list doesn't even include the late addition of the Cook Islands travelling to South America for a tour. It seems like there is new financial support and momentum to expand the sport. Scotland, Argentina, Japan and Georgia's fixtures look particularly interesting to me. Italy, France, Romania and Ireland less so (opponents too weak or too strong)

All very encouraging and will be fun to look out for potential up and coming nations. Haven't looked forward to autumn tests so much for a long time.

 

[Brigantine]

I compared the teams with tests vs current rankings. The top teams that *don't* have tests (according to your link):

Rank - Country
20 - Namibia
22 - Kenya
[Strike]24 - Belgium[/Strike]
28 - Ukraine*
31-35 - Switzerland*, Czechia**, Moldova*, Poland, Netherlands* (15th-19th in Europe)
38 - Tunisia. (below Tunisia, only PNG has tests)

That really makes your point I think. Most teams have full test matches or the Cup of Nations.
Out of the top 14 teams in Europe (down to Portugal), only [Strike]Belgium and[/Strike] Ukraine doesn't. Out of the top 18 teams outside Europe (down to Brazil and Zimbabwe), only Namibia and Kenya don't.

Tournaments between lower ranked countries usually fly under the radar. I think there's always been 4 teams go to Hong Kong, and another 4 in Romania (but not necessarily all full national teams). 29 have inter-continental matches. Including Rugby Europe matches, from Oct 22 to Dec 1, 51 countries have full international matches.
[UPDATE: And Asia Rugby Championship Division 3 East is on Nov 2-5 as well - India, Laos, China and Brunei][NEW UPDATE: And Portugal vs Belgium, Senegal vs Tunisia, Colombia vs Mexico and then the winner vs Paraguay - so 61 countries!]

* - These countries have Rugby Europe Trophy matches during this period.
** - Czechia has a match vs Barbarians (according to wiki), and has a Rugby Europe Conference match in this period, as do: Country (Rank in Europe)
Lithuania (20th in Europe, 46th in the world), Latvia (22), Croatia (23), Luxembourg (24), Sweden (25), Israel (27), Slovenia (28), Serbia (30), Austria (32), Cyprus (NR), Turkey (NR).
On Oct 29 Malta (21) and Andorra (26) each have a match.
On Oct 22 as well as NZ vs Aus (which Wikipedia includes in their list of AI's) there is Denmark (33) vs Norway (34), and Finland (36) vs Estonia (NR).
European countries with no tests or matches between Oct 22 and Dec 1: [strike]Belgium (11),[/strike] Poland (18), Bosnia & Herzegovina (29), Hungary (31st in Europe, 82nd in the world)

BTW what's your source re the Cook Islands? World Rugby doesn't have any fixtures listed.

So 29 countries with full inter-continental matches in 2016. Comparing to past years...
2013 also had 29 *if* you include Senegal and Ivory coast, who only had one match - against each other, but the match was held in France. Does that make it inter-continental? I'm gonna go with no.
2010 had 28 with scheduled matches, but the Netherlands' only game was cancelled, and the matches were ridiculously spread out (Sep 29 - Dec 18).
Looking further back, I'm pretty sure nothing even comes close.

So then, 2016 is indeed a record, if not an explosion.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Thanks a lot for that examination. Not such an increase as I thought, but still positive. I got muddled with Cook Islands. They go to Americas in July but are meant to be hosting a two countries in November. I can't find any confirmation of that so it may have fallen through.

http://www.americasrugbynews.com/20...-play-historic-tests-brazil-mexico-june-2017/

 

[TheOvalBall]

Thanks for the link. I always love the November tests, even though they are completely unnecessary. Hey, i love the game. What can i say ?

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Yes, they are pretty much friendlies but lots to look forward to:

- quite a few Tier 1 vs Tier 2 contests which will help improve the standard of the up and coming sides.
- same with Tier 2 vs Tier 3.
- probably the closest NH have been to SH in standard that we've had in decades so a chance for some big scalps to be claimed.
- approaching RWC seeding cut off date so world rankings are pretty important. For example a decent team will fall outside the top 8 by the middle of next year and then have a horrible group in 2019. Imagine having a France or Argentina as the third seed in your group and only two go through. If Japan get an automatic top seed as hosts then it'll be a complete dogfight for a top 7 spot.

Preaching to the converted I know but barring the issue with the ABs dominance it's a pretty exciting time for the sport I reckon.

 

[Brigantine]

Thanks.

That mentions hosting 2 tests in the Cooks in Nov 2017.

It sounds a bit comical, with the Cook Islands having a population smaller than most stadia (15,000). They don't call it "Oceania" for nothing!



Imagine having England, Australia, Wales and Fiji in the same pool, and only 2 go through
If Japan get top seed, they have a real chance of making the quarters. 50:50 they'll get either Italy or Georgia as the 3rd seed.

 

[Car]

Yep, it's definitely good for German rugby to have that many tests this November. I hope that'll regularly be the case from now on.

 

[FrenchFan]

For example a decent team will fall outside the top 8 by the middle of next year and then have a horrible group in 2019.

yep and by my reckoning that team should be France who should drop out of the top 8 if not top 10 after the 6N. If that happens, the wheels are def coming off for FFR over the national team. I think they already are.

- - - Updated - - -

Preaching to the converted I know but barring the issue with the ABs dominance it's a pretty exciting time for the sport I reckon.

For T2 and T3 nations yes. but T1 nations?

 

[welshglory]

yep and by my reckoning that team should be France who should drop out of the top 8 if not top 10 after the 6N. If that happens, the wheels are def coming off for FFR over the national team. I think they already are.

- - - Updated - - -



For T2 and T3 nations yes. but T1 nations?

That could in fact be the best thing for the long term future of the sport in France. If as you say they drop out of the top 8, maybe top 10 after next years 6 nations there will definitely be a major review process and structural overhaul, at least i hope to god there would be. Hopefully like the one German football had after their bad performances in the 90's.

Edit:
Expanding on the topic of Allblack dominance. I don't think it's an issue or negative. If anything i think they are an inspiration and a standard bearer for the rest of the world. You would think that Unions like SA, Aus, France who have regressed from their previous high standards would take a hard look at themselves and how they can improve. Nah... knowing conservative blazer types there won't be any type of urgency or thinking outside the box.

New Zealand show the way. It's up to the rest of the world to catch up... if they can even be bothered to do the hard work required, on and off the pitch.

 

[FrenchFan]

That could in fact be the best thing for the long term future of the sport in France.

I seriously doubt it. The future of the game here is very much in the hands of the clubs at every level (vision, money, infrastructure, competence). LNR are the one that have introduced reforms and they all apply to the Top 14. http://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/38072-Top-14-to-have-7-s-league-Women-s-league-and-3rd-pro-league

If as you say they drop out of the top 8, maybe top 10 after next years 6 nations there will definitely be a major review process and structural overhaul, at least i hope to god there would be.

That review and overhaul should have already happened after the last WC. The alarm bells were ringing loud and clear but the union has chosen to do...nothing. Not one reform has been introduced since that fateful (but not surprising) 1/4 Final. Nada.

By burying their little heads in the sand, FFr have already lost the next 4 years until Japan 2019.

If France drops out of the top 10 (odds are pretty high) - it's going to get ugly for les bleus.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

For T2 and T3 nations yes. but T1 nations?

I think so, yes. The prospect of having four groups at a RWC that are competitive enough to mean that big, established nations run the risk of being eliminated will make the sport more exciting for Tier 1 supporters rather than the same old countries sleep walking into the quarter finals. That won't happen at 2019, but the way things are going it looks likely for 2023. Of course, if you are a Tier 1 supporter on the wrong end of a result it probably doesn't feel like that.

Plus, the style of rugby now being played by teams like Scotland, and even a struggling Italy, is arguably a lot more entertaining than one dimensional performances they were putting out 5-8 years ago.

 

[Brigantine]

by my reckoning that team should be France who should drop out of the top 8 if not top 10 after the 6N.

That's a big call.

The gap in rankings points between 9th (Scotland) and 10th (Fiji) is 4.95 points.
That's bigger then the gap in between 3rd (South Africa) and 9th - 4.68 points.

Saying France will drop out of the top 10, is even more dramatic than saying South Africa will drop out of the top 8!

Starting at NZ (96.30) and dividing the table into classes of ~4 rankings points:
1st Class >92.30 - NZ
2nd Class >88.30 - England
3rd Class >84.30 - Australia, South Africa
4th Class >80.30 - Argentina, Wales, Ireland, France, Scotland
5th Class >76.30 -
6th Class >72.30 - Fiji, Georgia, Japan
7th Class >68.70* - Italy, Romania, Samoa, Tonga
mini 8th Class > 65.70* -
9th Class > 61.70 - Remaining RWC 2011 and 2015 teams

Wait, NZ has a test vs Italy?!

[Update: I made a graph. Note the big gap at 78 points]
<img src="http://www.therugbyforum.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=4611&d=1476157465" alt="Number of teams near each Ranking Point level" height="313" width="504"><img src="http://www.therugbyforum.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=4612&d=1476162345" alt="Ranking Points of teams by continent" height="313" width="504">

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

That could in fact be the best thing for the long term future of the sport in France. If as you say they drop out of the top 8, maybe top 10 after next years 6 nations there will definitely be a major review process and structural overhaul, at least i hope to god there would be. Hopefully like the one German football had after their bad performances in the 90's.

Edit:
Expanding on the topic of Allblack dominance. I don't think it's an issue or negative. If anything i think they are an inspiration and a standard bearer for the rest of the world. You would think that Unions like SA, Aus, France who have regressed from their previous high standards would take a hard look at themselves and how they can improve. Nah... knowing conservative blazer types there won't be any type of urgency or thinking outside the box.

New Zealand show the way. It's up to the rest of the world to catch up... if they can even be bothered to do the hard work required, on and off the pitch.

yep, guys who'd rather play their style of rugby rather than a winning style of rugby

 

[FrenchFan]

That's a big call.

The gap in rankings points between 9th (Scotland) and 10th (Fiji) is 4.95 points.
That's bigger then the gap in between 3rd (South Africa) and 9th - 4.68 points.

Saying France will drop out of the top 10, is even more dramatic than saying South Africa will drop out of the top 8!

Not at all. Nothing dramatic about it. It's quite predictable.

Another poor 6N on the back of a so-so AI could see them out of the top 8. They are currently 8th. So it's possible.

To me it's only a matter of time before they do. The writing has been on the wall for a heck of a long time. The union have their head so far up their own arse, they can't see they're losing control.

 

[gaston le gaff]

new world ranking as of today. France move up to 7th so highly unlikely to drop out of TOP 10.

1. Nouvelle-Zélande 96.57
2. Angleterre 89.49
3. Australie 85.33
4. Afrique du Sud 84.85
5. Galles 82.49
6. Irlande 81.67
7. France 80.75
8. Ecosse 80.44
9. Argentine 80.31
10. Fidji 75.49

 

[Facile]

new world ranking as of today. France move up to 7th so highly unlikely to drop out of TOP 10.

1. Nouvelle-Zélande 96.57
2. Angleterre 89.49
3. Australie 85.33
4. Afrique du Sud 84.85
5. Galles 82.49
6. Irlande 81.67
7. France 80.75
8. Ecosse 80.44
9. Argentine 80.31
10. Fidji 75.49

Je suis étonné que l'Australie et l'Afrique du Sud soient si mauvais cette année, mais ils restent toujours dans le top 4. Je suis sur qu'ils perdront en Europe.

 

[FrenchFan]

ah yes heard that one many times before in 2011 when they were 3rd after the WC.

We would never drop out of the top 5 yadi ya

Only a matter of time.

 

[FrenchFan]

that extra point was earned without playing a game and is due to Argentina losing to Australia in the RC. It's got nothing to do with Fra winning anything to earn that 7th spot.

the teams at 8. Scotland and 9.Argentine have also beaten Fra this year.

Add the small matter the current 4 year cycle has already been squandered.

hey it's all good

 

[gaston le gaff]

that extra point was earned without playing a game and is due to Argentina losing to Australia in the RC. It's got nothing to do with Fra winning anything to earn that 7th spot.

the teams at 8. Scotland and 9.Argentine have also beaten Fra this year.

Add the small matter the current 4 year cycle has already been squandered.

hey it's all good

did anyone mentioned they had played a game no, we all know why they have moved up, did i say we earned that 7th spot no, only that i do not expect them to drop below 10th all i did was put up the rankings nothing more nothing less, cool down my friend dont get so excited, we all have clearly understood you have absolutely no confidence in your National team you have mentioned it enough and often, but some of us are not so pessimistic

 

[FrenchFan]

are we talking about your optimistic navel again? once again this is not really the subject of the thread but never mind.