Explosion in November tests?

[gaston le gaff]

are we talking about your optimistic navel again? once again this is not really the subject of the thread but never mind.

so if that's case why did you!!!

 

[FrenchFan]

Was wondering when we're going to get the exclamation marks. Didn't take long.

Once again you're jumping in a thread with both feet in without any intent to contribute in a meaningful way.

I won't take this further. I leave it to the mods to deal with it.

 

[gaston le gaff]

so putting up the new world ratings is not contributed, heaven help and the mods will deal with what exactly.

 

[Brigantine]

A different way of looking at the rankings:

<img src="http://www.therugbyforum.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=4612&d=1476162345" alt="Ranking Points of teams by continent" height="380" width="605">

The 6N countries all blend together, but to the right you can quite clearly see NZ, Eng, Aus, SA, Arg - You can see the big gap at 78 then at 76 how competitive Fiji, Georgia and Japan are - and then you can spot the last few RWC countries at 64 - A mound of 3 American countries (USA, Ca, Uru) plus Namibia in brown and then Russia in blue half overlapping it. The Cook Islands stand out as a spot of green in the middle of an African mountain at 48.

 

[Shaggy]

Thanks for the link. I always love the November tests, even though they are completely unnecessary. Hey, i love the game. What can i say ?

You mean aside from making money for some nations, and for others, actually getting to play against decent opposition?

 

[valley commando]

Je suis étonné que l'Australie et l'Afrique du Sud soient si mauvais cette année, mais ils restent toujours dans le top 4. Je suis sur qu'ils perdront en Europe.

Yes I think you are right, I can see Both Oz and the Boks losing 2 games each, each of the home Nations will loose at least one game

 

[Brigantine]

Not so fast. The ranking system factors in home advantage. For the 6N countries to gain in the rankings, they need to do a lot better than 50:50.

Look at e.g. Wales vs Australia - on current rankings, factoring home advantage, Wales is already the favourite (only just). Wales will only get 0.98 rankings points out of that game if they win by 14 or less - not enough to overtake Aussie in the rankings. (But a win by 15 or more would get them 1.47 points, landing them in 4th place 0.10 points ahead of Australia)

In England vs South Africa, on current rankings and home advantage, England has to win that game 88% of the time just to tread water in the rankings. If England lose by 15+ to either South Africa or Australia, they wipe out their huge lead and drop to 3rd. (Same goes for Scotland vs Georgia actually, on *current* rankings. But NOT Wales vs Japan)


They'll (Australia/South Africa) probably lose a match or two somewhere, sure, but I don't see them losing their place in the rankings. Well, unless Ireland beats the All Blacks, which on paper is supposed to be impossible, even with home advantage. Or I suppose if France beat the All Blacks by 15+. That would put Ireland/France at ~83.7, which Aussie or SA could realistically drop below if they lose 2 games. (actually 3 in Australia's case)

OTOH, if Argentina win 2 games in Europe, they're back in 5th place. (or 6th if Ireland beat NZ)

 

[Sotavalta]

I see SA losing to England with about 10 point and against Wales with about 3-5 points. I think we will win Italy.

 

[valley commando]

I see SA losing to England with about 10 point and against Wales with about 3-5 points. I think we will win Italy.

Now may be a good time to play England, I'd be happy going into the 6 nations if they had the same players unavailable.

- - - Updated - - -

I see SA losing to England with about 10 point and against Wales with about 3-5 points. I think we will win Italy.

Now may be a good time to play England, I'd be happy going into the 6 nations if they had the same players unavailable.

 

[Brigantine]

Countries with inter-continental matches between 22 Oct and 3 Dec: 31 [Strike](and potentially(+) 32)[/strike]

• 5 inter-continental matches: (1)
  
  Australia
  ​
• 4 inter-continental matches: (6)
  
  New Zealand, England, Wales, Ireland, Argentina, Japan
  ​
• 3 inter-continental matches: (14)
  
  South Africa, France, Italy, Tonga, Samoa, Romania, Canada, Uruguay, Russia, Hong Kong, Germany, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Papua New Guinea
  ​
• 2 inter-continental matches: (7 [strike]or 8[/strike])
  
  Scotland, Fiji, Georgia, USA, Spain, Chile, Korea, [strike]potentially Mexico*+[/strike]
  ​
• 1 inter-continental match: (3)
  
  Portugal, Colombia*, Mexico*[strike]+/Paraguay+[/strike]
  ​

And counting all full international matches: [strike]61[/strike] 59
Countries in bold have matches against other countries in their continent

• 6 international matches: (1)
  
  Australia*
  ​
• 5 international matches: (1)
  
  New Zealand*
  ​
• 4 international matches: (5)
  
  England, Wales, Ireland, Argentina, Japan
  ​
• 3 international matches: (19)
  
  South Africa, France, Scotland, Georgia, Italy, Tonga, Samoa, Romania, Canada, Uruguay, Russia, Hong Kong, Germany, Portugal, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Papua New Guinea, Moldova, Turkey
  ​
• 2 international matches: ([strike]23[/strike] 19)
  
  Fiji, USA, Spain, Chile, Korea, Ukraine, Switzerland, Netherlands, Lithuania, Israel, Colombia*+/Mexico*+, Latvia*, Luxembourg*, Croatia*, Cyprus*, Slovenia*, Serbia*, [strike]China*, India*, Laos*, Brunei*[/strike], Malta**, Andorra**
  ​
• 1 international match: ([strike]12[/strike] 14)
  
  Colombia*+/Mexico*+, Belgium, Czechia, Tunisia, Paraguay, Senegal, Sweden, Austria, Denmark*, Norway*, Finland*, Estonia*, [UPDATE:] Indonesia, Laos​

* - matches before 5 Nov
+ - The winner of Colombia vs Mexico on 29 Oct [UPDATE: Colombia won] advances to the final vs Paraguay in RWC Qualifying round 2 in week 3 of the AI's, which will be a second international match for one of them

 

[Brigantine]

The increase in the number of countries with inter-continental test matches over the previous record is a bit more dramatic now - I just discovered that some RWC 2019 qualifying matches between Rugby Americas North and CONSUR are happening too.

These matches involve Colombia from CONSUR vs Mexico from Rugby Americas North, and then potentially Paraguay from CONSUR vs Mexico as well.

So the previous record was 27, and in 2016 we have at least 31, maybe 32.

Also updated the count on countries with full international matches that might not be inter-continental, and it comes to [strike]61[/strike] 59. That includes [strike]56[/strike] 55 of the 102 countries with World Rugby rankings, including all of the top 39 except Namibia, Kenya and Poland; and then half of the ones ranked in the 40's (down to Mexico at rank 49). (the ones lower than that are mostly in Europe)

Also impressive that out of the top 37 (down to Brazil and Zimbabwe), every country has at least 2 full international matches except 5. (Namibia, Kenya, Belgium, Czechia, Poland - and Czechia has a game vs the barbarians as well as an international)

[Update:] It seems Brunei and China pulled out of Asia Rugby Championship Div III E, and it is in fact Indonesia participating, not India. So now Div III E is a glorified AI between Laos and Indonesia on neutral ground (in Thailand)

 

[mrstsang]

Has there ever been so many internationals in November?

http://pulse-static-files.s3.amazon...2e9c3cd/November_Internationals_list_2016.pdf

Heck, the list doesn't even include the late addition of the Cook Islands travelling to South America for a tour. It seems like there is new financial support pop up stands and momentum to expand the sport. Scotland, Argentina, Japan and Georgia's fixtures look particularly interesting to me. Italy, France, Romania and Ireland less so (opponents too weak or too strong)

All very encouraging and will be fun to look out for potential up and coming nations. Haven't looked forward to autumn tests so much for a long time.

Thanks for you link and information.
For my references!

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Thanks for you link and information.
For my references!

You're welcome! But you should really thank Georgian rugby as i took it from them.

http://m.rugby.ge/news-view/?newsid...***le=November_Internationals_|_Squad_Update_

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Some absolutely great fixtures on Saturday for teams ranked around 12-30 in the world. Really well matched contests and a chance that none of them will be badly one sided. All intercontinental too, so they provide a challenge these teams won't have in their usual continental competitions. I find myself looking forward to some of these more than the Tier 1 tests (although Wales vs Argentina and Scotland vs Australia should both be very competitive). My picks in bold.

Romania (16) vs USA (17) - I think USA are a bit closer to Romania than the ranking points suggest (3 point difference), but their new Kiwi coach Mitchell hasn't made a great first impression on the Americans, and their kind of second XV got mauled by the Maoris this weekend. So I don't think they are in a position to capitalise on their PRO league just yet. Sounds like Romania have made a wierd team selection and I've no idea about Howells as a coach (he has an extremely ordinary career history prior to joining Romania and he is knocking on 70!).

Georgia (11) vs Japan (12) - see game day thread, could be a belter despite Japan's weakened side.

Spain (23) vs Tonga (15) - Spain seem to be an emerging team with their semi-PRO league, but I'd imagine Tonga will be too good.

Germany (26) vs Uruguay (19) - Uruguay the more established side and a lot of positive noises about their union actually doing things the right way to turn around their decline. Germany seem to have a load of injuries which is destroying their club side playing in the European Challenge Cup Qualifiersm, so this might be a disappointment.

Chile (27) vs South Korea (29) - very close in the rankings. Korea a bit of an enigma but they managed to score 30 points on Japan under Eddie Jones (admittedly they conceded 60 points in the same game) so they must have something going for them. Chile got a decent result or two in the Americas Rugby Championship and are more battle hardened this year with international fixtures.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Germany defeat Uruguay in exciting late fashion infront of a decent crowd and leap three places to 23rd in the rankings. Did not see that one coming.

 

[Car]

I watched the first 30 minutes (in addition to being shown on pay TV, there was a free stream) and then switched to Wales - Argentina. I couldn't believe what I read afterwards. I'm looking forward to seeing the highlights tomorrow (a one hour programme on free TV).

 

[Brigantine]

Yeah, that one was a nail biter.

Germany seem to be playing very differently to last season in their attack. From what I saw last year it was all over the field, but this game it seemed to only ever be in the centre with the pack. I was not at all expecting Germany's scrum to be so dominant. (at least it was until Uruguay's subs came on). In the first half it seemed they forgot what defence was, but I don't expect that to be a recurring theme, what's more of a worry is the kicking performance.

Overall, while I'm pleased with the end result against a World Cup team, it doesn't bode well. I got the impression it was a 2nd rate Uruguay side that was making a lot of mistakes, and the areas Germany had the advantage in are *not* the ones we need if we want to pose any threat to Romania and (I presume) Russia.

Here's hoping Romania badly underestimates us in the opening qualifier in Feb.

There are no longer any rankings points on offer from Brazil, and I think Germany have to be moderate favourites. I'm hoping to see them use other strategies than the one they used vs Uruguay.

BTW, did anyone catch what the yellow card was for?

 

[Makos]

Not at all. Nothing dramatic about it. It's quite predictable.

Another poor 6N on the back of a so-so AI could see them out of the top 8. They are currently 8th. So it's possible.

To me it's only a matter of time before they do. The writing has been on the wall for a heck of a long time. The union have their head so far up their own arse, they can't see they're losing control.

You're not going to drop lower than Fiji.

 

[Car]

Germany seem to be playing very differently to last season in their attack. From what I saw last year it was all over the field, but this game it seemed to only ever be in the centre with the pack. I was not at all expecting Germany's scrum to be so dominant. (at least it was until Uruguay's subs came on). In the first half it seemed they forgot what defence was, but I don't expect that to be a recurring theme, what's more of a worry is the kicking performance.

Yep, I didn't like the kicking performance either. That's really one of the basics you have to get right.

Overall, while I'm pleased with the end result against a World Cup team, it doesn't bode well. I got the impression it was a 2nd rate Uruguay side that was making a lot of mistakes, and the areas Germany had the advantage in are *not* the ones we need if we want to pose any threat to Romania and (I presume) Russia.

Honestly, I don't think posing a threat to Romania and Russia is the goal for the time being. Making sure we don't get relegated and continuous progress seems to be more realistic for now. And we should try to attract more people to the games. TV coverage is great, but if not many people turn up, it doesn't look all that great any more. At least some of the stadiums we use nowadays are actually decent.

BTW, did anyone catch what the yellow card was for?

No, I was wondering about that as well.

 

[FrenchFan]

You're not going to drop lower than Fiji.

It's the draw for the Pool of death the union should be worried about. I think France may not avoid it.