EOYT: Wales vs New Zealand, 24/11/2012

[DuncTheDoodle]

Fine. Alright. Go on then, Priestland. Surprise us.

 

[admartian]

This is my upset special of the week; Wales by 6.

 

[FlukeArtist]

I like the TAB odds of $3.25 for ABs by 1-12

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I like the TAB odds of $3.25 for ABs by 1-12

Pessimist, are ya?

 

[Darwin]

This is my upset special of the week; Wales by 6.

Surely it is a bit early to be drinking?

 

[FlukeArtist]

Pessimist, are ya?

Haha not at all.
I just think there is a reasonable chance of Wales getting up for this game, and therefore running the ABs close.
3/1 odds is pretty good for that I reckon

 

[Thingimubob]

Seriously psychic, where on earth do you dig all these obscure GIFs from?!

 

[Draggs]

Seriously psychic, where on earth do you dig all these obscure GIFs from?!

Gwlad.

Robling isn't an outside half, doesn't have the tools. Could make a decent centre.

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Disagreed. There was no coincidence that the scrum went from decent with James and Hibbard on, to less good when Hibbard went off, and then to conceding a penalty every single scrum when James went off.

Gethin Jenkins is completely off form (how predictable was it that most of the scrum blame went to the Jarvis instead of him btw), and Wales are lucky enough to have Paul James who is a very good loosehead who can come in. This isn't a Martyn Williams situation where he has to start every game as whatever form he was on as the backup is so far from his level.

Thanks for that.

Was there any need for that arsey comment?

Also your wrong on Jarvis front, he was not solely to blame as you claim. Most things I read / heard said it was a combination of things to why the scrum went backwards.

Oh and this is not a Martyn Williams situation as you so claim. Martyn was pretty much at the end, Gethin still has a lot to offer and is by no means finished. Really Jenks has still much to offer. He is off the boil at the moment. He hasn't hit the Martyn Williams tag yet. Frustrating to say the least.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Think you've got the wrong end of the stick with his Williams comment:
He's saying it's not like that situation as there are capable backups. If Williams lost form he'd have to start anyway as no one was close to him, whereas if Jenkins loses form then James is a more than capable replacement.

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Well Warburton was there when Martyn needed replacing ... Despite not being a fan of Martyn moving over at the time, but the correct decision was made. Gethin is not a bad player, he needs to regain form and the only way to do that is by playing. Complete opposite to that of Preistland.

On another note ... James was a defensive liability against Samoa some forget that (missed a few tackles, one that led to a try) and quick to point out the scrum issues when Gethin came on.

 

[dullonien]

I'm not sure the scrum issues in the second half were Gethins fault tbh. It looked like Jarvis was getting an absolute beasting, completely buckling in half by the end. I put this down to the tiredness from Jarvis, after a night full of defending and being under pressure in the scrum. It is a big step-up for Jarvis from Pro12 and Heineken cup level, and he's probably spent come the second half, especially when Wales are defending for much of the game.

Jenkins isn't at his best, but putting the scrum issues on him is highly unfair. Ken Owens isn't a renowned scrummaging hooker either, and the hooker always has a bearing on the tighteads performance.

Cymro, Warburton wasn't really around at that point. In 2008 Warburton was captaining the U20's at the WC, but then picked up a serious injury that kept him out for a long time.

 

[TRF_Cymro]

I'm not sure the scrum issues in the second half were Gethins fault tbh. It looked like Jarvis was getting an absolute beasting, completely buckling in half by the end. I put this down to the tiredness from Jarvis, after a night full of defending and being under pressure in the scrum. It is a big step-up for Jarvis from Pro12 and Heineken cup level, and he's probably spent come the second half, especially when Wales are defending for much of the game.

Jenkins isn't at his best, but putting the scrum issues on him is highly unfair. Ken Owens isn't a renowned scrummaging hooker either, and the hooker always has a bearing on the tighteads performance.

Cymro, Warburton wasn't really around. In 2008 Warburton was captaining the U20's at the WC, but then picked up a serious injury that kept him out for a long time.

Ye Warburton as you said was with Wales U20s but when Williams was coming to the end there was calls for Warburton to replace him.

 

[ZeFrenchy]

Ye Warburton as you said was with Wales U20s but when Williams was coming to the end there was calls for Warburton to replace him.

I think what he means is that Jenkins today is not what Williams was in, say 2003-2007. By that time Williams could affor a drop of form and would still be better than the second best #7, whereas Jenkins today is the best LHP, but the difference with the second best is not that big as to guarantee a starting spot when he's off form.
(disclaimer: this is how I undertand the argument. The dates are approximate, and mentioning something that would prove part of this post wrong would not invalidate the argument (which btw wasn't made by me)).

 

[dullonien]

Ye Warburton as you said was with Wales U20s but when Williams was coming to the end there was calls for Warburton to replace him.

Pretty much. The problem there were the Blues. Warburton overtook Williams for Wales long before he did for the Blues.

 

[SelimNiai]

I can't believe I'm reading people saying we could win Saturday. Now, I like to think I'm a decent optimist but I can't forsee any scenario that we will win. I mean we couldnt win in 2009(?) when we had a weaker NZ side against our full strength, fully in form side and lost by 7. If we get within 15 I'll be chuffing amazed

 

[DuncTheDoodle]

Pretty much. The problem there were the Blues. Warburton overtook Williams for Wales long before he did for the Blues.

I remember you making the point yourself, though, Dull- The Blues could afford to pick Martyn, whereas Wales couldn't, as the balance of the Blues backrow meant that they didn't need a lumpy 7 to fill out the breakdown, so they went with the Nugget.

I miss Martyn. I loved Martyn. Bring back Martyn.

why, every single week, do I grow increasingly optimistic? I'm not sure we can beat them, but I'm expecting a plucky defeat rather than the trouncing we're expecting. That said, I can see us winning. Whenever I close my eyes. Jon Davies, over the line in the last minute... Pence with the conversion... McCaw writes another book blaming the ref... Glorious.

 

[Draggs]

Nugget will be the openside in the greatest Welsh XV for years to come, and I'll argue that for the rest of my life. I simply can't recall him having an awful match for us. (Awaiting incoming evidence...)
Nah, Davies makes a line break, 2 on 1 and blows the *******. Turk. Already angry at him now.

 

[Larksea]

I like the TAB odds of $3.25 for ABs by 1-12

I think the TAB will make a lot of money with that one

 

[DuncTheDoodle]

Nugget will be the openside in the greatest Welsh XV for years to come, and I'll argue that for the rest of my life. I simply can't recall him having an awful match for us. (Awaiting incoming evidence...)
Nah, Davies makes a line break, 2 on 1 and blows the *******. Turk. Already angry at him now.

Yeah, you're probably right. I picture it now.

"This shall be the last play... Knoyle, out to the man-of-the-match, Priestland, who really has had the game of his li- DAVIES! JONATHAN DAVIES! HE'S GOT CUTHBERT OUTSIDE HIM ONE TO BEAT IS JONATHAN DAVIES GOING TO NEED HIM AAAAAND HE'S THROWN IT INTO TOUCH!"

Or, in Kiwi land, where Nisbitt's commentating instead-

"And it looks like the game's all over, but Wales push on, they're a determined bunch this Welsh side. Oh boy, a good run by the 13 for Wales... Davies. The winger's with him but no. He throws the ball to touch. Great defensive work by Isreal Dagg!"

There you go, observational comedy on the difference between rugby commentators in different hemispheres. Tickets for my stand-up show go on sale early next month.