[COVID-19] General Discussion

[Ragey Erasmus]

Snip

And the stupid thing about people like you is you condence all criticism of St Trump into "Orange man bad" and therefore can be dismissed without concern. Here's a thought, Trump IS bad, that's why he gets so much criticism. Just because you shut your eyes and ears to it, doesn't mean it isn't there. Just because you call it fake news, doesn't stop it being true. Just because you claim media bias, doesn't stop their reporting of Trump from being true. Just because you say "orange man bad" doesn't mean the criticism of him is unfounded.

Of course it's the ultimate irony, the orange man bad thing is supposed to indicate people mindlessly parroting a line without thinking, yet that is exactly what everyone who says orange man bad is doing. Just parrot that line so you don't have to think rationally about the many valid criticisms of Trump. I'll go out on a limb, you need to be seriously ******* idiotic to think Trump is anything other that a disaster now.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

We are allowing economists to determine public health tactics. Having worked as an economist before law school, we shouldn't been be allowed to determine the economy.

 

[ncurd]

We are allowing economists to determine public health tactics. Having worked as an economist before law school, we shouldn't been be allowed to determine the economy.

I'd agree to some extent we should be minimising lives lost as a number 1 priority, thats not where the economists come in. However its important people have jobs and livelihoods the other side of this and that about minimising impact and I don't know who you listen to other the economists.

Its not a fun line to have to tread and I'm glad I'm not making the decisions.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

I'd agree to some extent we should be minimising lives lost as a number 1 priority, thats not where the economists come in. However its important people have jobs and livelihoods the other side of this and that about minimising impact and I don't know who you listen to other the economists.

Its not a fun line to have to tread and I'm glad I'm not making the decisions.

if you're motivation is make sure people don't end up starving and homeless, you can just give them UBI until the crisis is over. For jobs, we can have low interest loans once the crisis Ian over to kickstart small businesses. Any spending right now should be considered more important than military spending, since this is the realest war in my lifetime.

tax breaks to large corporations and making people go to work in dangerous times isn't the optimal solution.

Also, just cause you open up the country doesn't mean states or the private sector will follow. The people with money, the more educated, are going to be reluctant to go out and public and participate in consumption.

 

[stus768]

There will be many like that, but nothing like the percentages claimed here (Oxford):

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model (13).pdf?dl=0

Their big leap is assuming that only a very small section of the population are vulnerable enough to have symptoms severe enough that would result in testing. While that may be true now across the UK (albeit the percentage is likely different), it certainly wasn't true early in Feb. It also definitely isn't true elsewhere (Italy or South Korea).

Basically the spread/critical/death characteristics elsewhere in the world where there are much more rigorous testing regimes wouldn't match up to their assumptions.


SK tested the **** out of the place, so we can safely assume the amount of folks that carried it unknowingly are very low.

Their death rate was 42/6284 (March 6th) - or 0.67% - which is in line with China outside Wuhan.

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30150-8/fulltext

That completely undermines the Oxford assumption (which to me, is a big reach when looking at the references they claim supports it).

Happy to be corrected but surely the current test only shows if you have it now. Not if you've had it previously.

So if it existed prior to testing it would be unknown?

 

[General Melchett]

Happy to be corrected but surely the current test only shows if you have it now. Not if you've had it previously.

So if it existed prior to testing it would be unknown?

That's my understanding. They are developing a second test which will detect the existence of antibodies indicating that someone has had it previously and recovered from it. The idea is that HCPs can then return to duties with minimal risk of contracting it again.

 

[Amiga500]

That's my understanding. They are developing a second test which will detect the existence of antibodies indicating that someone has had it previously and recovered from it. The idea is that HCPs can then return to duties with minimal risk of contracting it again.

Correct.

By all accounts progress on anti-body tests is really good.

 

[ncurd]

https://twitter.com/clmazin/status/1242676184288120832?s=19

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Stockpiling American style. FFS.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/guns-ammo-coronavirus/index.html

 

[profitius]

Macron robs British facemasks. //www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/21/macrons-france-seizes-lorries-carrying-130000-masks-to-british-hospitals/

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Sounds like The Sun twisting things tbh (shock horror).

When you strip it down to the facts:
France have a rule saying all medical supplies must go to hospitals not be sold privately.
They caught two lorries of medical supplies leaving the country and stopped them.
UK government confirmed they were for the NHS.
They were released.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Holy **** someone posted a breitbart link unironically

 

[Bada-Bing!]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52052123

Help for the self employed.

 

[Amiga500]

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...e-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Bit of more hopeful news.

Imperial College team lead Neil Ferguson hinting that it could be manageable.


I think we're gonna bust the ICU threshold - as all the ventilators ordered likely won't arrive till too late and there isn't enough evidence of virus growth rate starting to decline *yet* - but I'm hopeful that (outside London*) distancing measures will work and will strangle this thing to the point the ICU threshold bust isn't too big and doesn't last too long. But we really need to see the growth rate start to drop off within the next week otherwise its trouble.


*Inside London - shame on the f**kwits/f**kwit bosses (delete as applicable) whose actions are resulting in crowded public transport.

 

[Which Tyler]

https://twitter.com/FerdiGiugliano/status/1243128000121618432
"The town of Nembro, near Bergamo, had 158 deaths so far this year Vs 35 on average in the recent past.

Only 31 deaths were attributed to Covid-19"


Of course, some of those will be undiagnosed COVID deaths, and some secondary as equipment and care isn't available for others when capacity is taken up with COVID.

 

[Which Tyler]

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...e-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Bit of more hopeful news.

Imperial College team lead Neil Ferguson hinting that it could be manageable.

Have to say, the conversions of the Excel Centre and NEC (so far, are any other confirmed), combined with the upgraded of normal ward beds to ICU, will pretty much quadruple our ICU capacity, making a huge, huge difference.
Looks like ventilators are in the process of being sorted (late, but... better that than never).

Now, that just leaves those beds wanting for trained staff, and the POE necessary for them to work safely.

Moral of that story is, Stay Inside - unless you want to be intubated by a pyschiatrist!

 

[duncanb]

intensive care national audit and research.
released some data that covers all intensive care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
I'll let anyone browse the figures for themselves, striking for me.
+ 70% Male
average age 64
most common age range 70 to 79.
80% BMI over weight or worse.
Majority do not have underlying medical conditions.
This is for 200 patients listed in intensive care between 29/2 19/3 for covid 19.
Found it fairly interesting and surprising as well .
Surprised not more widely reported.
So overweight men over 60 watch out you seem to be a prime candidate for trouble.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Once this virus is under control do we give up our private data to government more for the greater good for next time this happens. Will western liberal democracies like ours allow it like SK, HK, Singapore or is it too much of a cultural jump to do so?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

America with almost 15k confirmed cases in the last day alone
They've now got more cases than China (theoretically - I don't think China are playing ball with the figures now that they're not the centre of attention)

 

[Amiga500]

The asshole in Downing Street has it.

About 3 months too late and of insufficient severity I would say.


edit: Yeah, vote it down. Critical thinking power on a level with the Trumpers there. With Bozo and Dominic "the economy is more important than tens of thousands of lives" Cummings calling the shots - it is all but fact that a number of people who have or will die from COVID-19 under Bozo's stewardship would otherwise have lived under competent leadership.