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[COVID-19] General Discussion

TRF_Olyy said:
Can't see any union agreeing to a full on cancellation - the monetary loss would be too severe
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Yup, especially with precedent on the side of re-arranging.
However... This is unlikely to have died down in 6 months time, so it probably will be what happens eventually, but for now, expect everyone to play for time.
 
Which Tyler said:
Hope you paid by credit card...
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No travel advisories from the UK for Japan yet,
Most of the freak out over Japan is because of the number on the cruise ship - in terms of mainland it's not toooooo bad (30 odd in Tokyo, a city of 60+million). I'm not concerned about it being cancelled, but I'm not sure how keen my work would be about me going into quarantine when I get back :p
 
TRF_Olyy said:
No travel advisories from the UK for Japan yet,
Most of the freak out over Japan is because of the number on the cruise ship - in terms of mainland it's not toooooo bad (30 odd in Tokyo, a city of 60+million). I'm not concerned about it being cancelled, but I'm not sure how keen my work would be about me going into quarantine when I get back :p
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Latest advice, as of yesterday: https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/01/23/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-what-you-need-to-know/?
 
Govt advice is at least a week, maybe even 2 weeks behind where it needs to be.

When cases first emerged in Italy (16th Feb with 4 cases) - the response should have been swift and decisive.
Flights stopped, self-isolation of anyone who had returned from Italy for 7 days, which would later amend depending on emerging cases in Italy.

Instead, they are going to talk themselves to death discussing matters while people actually start dying in big numbers before they realise they need to act.

So the mid-term has happened, thousands of school kids have went out on ski-trips, returned and went back to school. Sure what could possibly go wrong there?


Matt Hancock currently insisting that all is OK earlier:
vaugn.jpg
 
I'll be amazed if this goes ahead now Ire V Ita is cancelled.

From my understanding which is secondhand knowledge from a friend who is a scientist, infection control specialist and part of UK response team none the less I am limited. Its about a 1% mortality rate when models are applied (dividing simple deaths V confirmed cases doesn't work) which is actually not too different to normal flu and kills similar people ie those with underlying issues.

The issue comes with infection rates were are huge and a lack of vaccine to protect people.

However in the UK and most countries with a decent free health service the main impact is going to be economic should it not be contained. Where work forces are likely to loose staff for up two weeks and its likely to be non insignificant number.


That's pretty much all I know my friend has essentially been refusing all media request because they don't believe they understand enough to properly inform the public but has also told us not to panic at all yet.
 
ncurd said:
From my understanding which is secondhand knowledge from a friend who is a scientist, infection control specialist and part of UK response team none the less I am limited. Its about a 1% mortality rate when models are applied (dividing simple deaths V confirmed cases doesn't work) which is actually not too different to normal flu and kills similar people ie those with underlying issues..
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That is quite different from killed vs. cured - which is running at around 10%.

But of course, there are probably factors for health system effectiveness, national general diet & general health that need to be considered when trying to figure out how it rolls across an entire nation. Those factors would not be reflected in simple killed vs. cured numbers worldwide.

I hope yer mate is right!
 
Yoshimitsu said:
Depends on how you want this to play out It's a simple numbers game.

Small numbers? Barely a ripple. Large numbers? Serious problems.

Lets play catastrophist!

80% of people who get this thing appear to be fine. However, the 20% who aren't will rapidly swamp the health services of all countries affected with ICU beds being the most likely failure point. A mortality rate of 1 - 2% seems to be on the cards with the majority of the dead being old / suffering from other health conditions. It looks like we're going to get a pretty good idea of what happens as the Iranians appear to have gone for the approach of just letting it spread.

I'd suspect the Six Nations will be a casualty but it won't be the biggest. The Olympics is highly unlikely (imho obviously) to proceed in it's current / envisaged form.

The particular problem is lack of testing capability. Without that the Italians really don't know yet what they are dealing with. Risking the health of potentially millions so we can watch a game of rugby seems a bit disproportionate to me.

Just for context there was a lot of worry about swine flu. I got it and it was a miserable experience. But that strain had a mortality of around 0.02% at the moment this thing it appears approximately 100 x more deadly. Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of approximately 2-3% and killed somewhere around 30 million people worldwide.

The name of the game is to buy time and keep numbers low enough for existing capabilities to cope. Our "just in time" ultra connected society is about to find out exactly how resilient such systems are. At this point I'd hope caution wins the day.
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I 'liked' this, but to say I like it maybe gives the wrong impression. I agree with it completely. As you say, at the point I can't see the Olympics happening in the envisaged form unless it's all done by then - unlikely unfortunately. Would be a shame to postpone/cancel 6 nations games, but 100% the correct thing to do.
 
All sports in cancelled,
National Museums closed in Tokyo, Kyoto and Nara (was going to all three),
Rumours that the bullet train might be cancelled,
All school shut until mid April (closing for spring break 3weeks early)

ffs
 
TRF_Olyy said:
All sports in cancelled,
National Museums closed in Tokyo, Kyoto and Nara (was going to all three),
Rumours that the bullet train might be cancelled,
All school shut until mid April (closing for spring break 3weeks early)

ffs
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Honestly probably best to cancel your trip and claim on insurance and go when this all over.
 
Checked on insurance, they're not paying out unless you're specifically flying into a city that has been designated an "only essential travel" place by the government (Hubei province, two places in Korea and about 20 towns in Italy) - KLM are doing the same, judging from their social media/people kicking off at them.
Think the best they're doing is saying if you're flying into a bad area you can rebook within 30days - but 30days it's probably gonna be significantly worse than it is now soooo.....

Definitely wasn't anticipating this when I booked my flights 6 months ago
 
That's a complete ****, the frustrating part will be the flights being your main expense. Once out there claiming on bullet train and stuff being close you paid for won't make a difference on your entire holiday being utter horlicksed. I'd be quite despondent by now if I were you.
 
I'm more annoyed at the prospect of two weeks in work when I should be on holiday :p

Gotta play it by ear I guess but atm it's deteriorating rapidly
 

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