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[COVID-19] General Discussion

And of course, absolutely nobody talking about compulsory work from home
 
www.bbc.co.uk

Covid: How is Europe lifting lockdown restrictions?

Europe is gradually easing lockdown measures ahead of the tourist season.
www.bbc.co.uk

As we're slowly coming out of lockdown, the rest of Europe still at different stages with theirs. What are we? Usually 3 weeks behind?

Although our vaccination program has gone well, still most under 40s yet to receive their first jab and most adults won't until end of July - subject to supply issues. Infection rate between now and June 21 is bound still rise.

Even Bojo didn't sound that confident yesterday.
 
The_Blindside said:
www.bbc.co.uk

Covid: How is Europe lifting lockdown restrictions?

Europe is gradually easing lockdown measures ahead of the tourist season.
www.bbc.co.uk

As we're slowly coming out of lockdown, the rest of Europe still at different stages with theirs. What are we? Usually 3 weeks behind?

Although our vaccination program has gone well, still most under 40s yet to receive their first jab and most adults won't until end of July - subject to supply issues. Infection rate between now and June 21 is bound still rise.

Even Bojo didn't sound that confident yesterday.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure it's as simple as an x week time lag any more like it was when the original strain was embarking on its world tour. Given that it's B117 that's causing mainland Europe's current woes, I don't see how their problems can "wash up on our shores". Their problem is the problem that we already have because we created it.

That's not to say that we're not headed for a fourth lockdown though, but it will be of our own making through overly permissive rules, responding too slowly and / or allowing new strains to enter the country. Lots of the data scientists / medics I follow, who have called things pretty well so far seem to think that we are headed for a fourth lockdown. When Boris first made his carefully worded "shores" prediction I assumed that he agreed and was sewing the seeds of his excuse.
 
RedruthRFC said:
I'm not sure it's as simple as an x week time lag any more like it was when the original strain was embarking on its world tour. Given that it's B117 that's causing mainland Europe's current woes, I don't see how their problems can "wash up on our shores". Their problem is the problem that we already have because we created it.

That's not to say that we're not headed for a fourth lockdown though, but it will be of our own making through overly permissive rules, responding too slowly and / or allowing new strains to enter the country. Lots of the data scientists / medics I follow, who have called things pretty well so far seem to think that we are headed for a fourth lockdown. When Boris first made his carefully worded "shores" prediction I assumed that he agreed and was sewing the seeds of his excuse.
Click to expand...
How did we create it?
 
Tallshort said:
How did we create it?
Click to expand...
By failing to control (and even encouraging) the spread of the virus. Why do you think you don't hear about a New Zealand variant, or a Australian variant, or a Singapore variant, but hear about a South African variant, a Brazilian variant and a UK one?
 
Heard a fun story from a mate of mine who lives in Australia last night. Queensland has had its first case of in months. Apparently a nurse from a covid ward went to a hen party, infected a stripper, who went to his day job as a tradesman and spread it around a nursing home. The state is now in lockdown!
 
RedruthRFC said:
I'm not sure it's as simple as an x week time lag any more like it was when the original strain was embarking on its world tour. Given that it's B117 that's causing mainland Europe's current woes, I don't see how their problems can "wash up on our shores". Their problem is the problem that we already have because we created it.

That's not to say that we're not headed for a fourth lockdown though, but it will be of our own making through overly permissive rules, responding too slowly and / or allowing new strains to enter the country. Lots of the data scientists / medics I follow, who have called things pretty well so far seem to think that we are headed for a fourth lockdown. When Boris first made his carefully worded "shores" prediction I assumed that he agreed and was sewing the seeds of his excuse.
Click to expand...

Yes and we are now going to really test how effective the vaccines have been against this B117 Kent variant. Has it been effective so far just because of combo of vaccination and lockdown? Infection rates and death rates have fallen, but with still around 54% of the population still to be vaccinated that B117 strain is still there to be spread and infect them once more people start to mingle. Bojo and co are gambling that enough peeps have the antibodies now (around 50%) from being vaccinated and being previously infected.

If we are going into a fourth lockdown then it's going to be this autumn/Winter again. It remains to be seen if we've learnt the lessons of last summer when that is the time to get ahead of virus while we can and we'll still need boosters against these variants This Autumn.
 
RedruthRFC said:
By failing to control (and even encouraging) the spread of the virus. Why do you think you don't hear about a New Zealand variant, or a Australian variant, or a Singapore variant, but hear about a South African variant, a Brazilian variant and a UK one?
Click to expand...
You don't hear about a US or Mexico one either do you?

To suggest that "we" as in the UK are responsible for the current raise in cases in Europe is utterly stupid and to suggest we encouraged the spread of the virus is bordering on tin hat conspiracy nonsense.

Its not the UKs fault that the EU vaccination role out is a crock of rubbish, the UK didn't cause vaccine scepticism in France, the UK didn't try (and continue to try) to undermine the safety and effectiveness of the AZ vaccine, the UK hasn't gone and told the Germans to reverse their Easter lockdown plans despite growing cases and the UK didn't raid a vaccine warehouse in Italy only find a load of vaccines (surprise surprise) that were actually destined for the EU.

I know this is really hard to get your head round but have you thought that the reason mainland Europe is experiencing a third wave might be down to the governments of those countries not doing a very good job of managing the virus? No one seems reluctant to rightly blame Boris and his mob for the way they have handled things here but for some reason when it comes to looking at the EU leadership on this some of you lose your ******* minds and go into some mad, self-loathing whinge-fest on the very messed up logic that the EU is incapable of every cocking anything up.
 
I thought it was established that the "UK Variant" was named as such because it was discovered here due to us being one of the few countries that gene map (?? whatever it's called when they look at the makeup of the disease, not just look at the positives/negatives)
The fact that the highest concentrations of it (at it's discovery, anyway) were around busy ports and airports kinda strengthening that it came in from elsewhere
 
Tallshort said:
You don't hear about a US or Mexico one either do you?

To suggest that "we" as in the UK are responsible for the current raise in cases in Europe is utterly stupid and to suggest we encouraged the spread of the virus is bordering on tin hat conspiracy nonsense.

Its not the UKs fault that the EU vaccination role out is a crock of rubbish, the UK didn't cause vaccine scepticism in France, the UK didn't try (and continue to try) to undermine the safety and effectiveness of the AZ vaccine, the UK hasn't gone and told the Germans to reverse their Easter lockdown plans despite growing cases and the UK didn't raid a vaccine warehouse in Italy only find a load of vaccines (surprise surprise) that were actually destined for the EU.

I know this is really hard to get your head round but have you thought that the reason mainland Europe is experiencing a third wave might be down to the governments of those countries not doing a very good job of managing the virus? No one seems reluctant to rightly blame Boris and his mob for the way they have handled things here but for some reason when it comes to looking at the EU leadership on this some of you lose your ******* minds and go into some mad, self-loathing whinge-fest on the very messed up logic that the EU is incapable of every cocking anything up.
Click to expand...
Didn't the UK discover the new variant, realise it's more transmissible and harsher and continue to open up for Christmas almost as if COVID didn't exist? Whilst also not discouraging travel anywhere near enough.

I'm not saying our government is in anyway competent and we were far too lax in the lead up to Christmas but the fact that no one was discouraged from returning to Ireland and bringing with them a variant that has completely, and not unforeseeably, ****** us both since, suggests a pretty large failure on the UK's part to inform their inhabitants.

The vaccine rollout and spreading of the virus has caused a lot of ill feeling between the EU and the UK in recent months and the lack of communication and petty jabs has been to the detriment of everyone. A simple case study of Ireland, the unified approach to foot and mouth and two separate, and harmful to each other, approaches to covid north and south coupled with our governments repeated early requests to consult each other on approaches and have a uniform approach suggests to me that the EU aren't the ones refusing to negotiate.
 
Tallshort said:
You don't hear about a US or Mexico one either do you?
Click to expand...
Yes you do. Thus far none of the variants discovered there have been successful in increasing transmissibility like those that are commonly talked about.
Tallshort said:
To suggest that "we" as in the UK are responsible for the current raise in cases in Europe is utterly stupid and to suggest we encouraged the spread of the virus is bordering on tin hat conspiracy nonsense.
Click to expand...
Calling my assertion "utterly stupid" is no doubt great fun for you, but it does little to further the discussion. Why is it wrong? Unless I'm missing something, you appear to be disputing what I understand to be scientific fact(s) as follows:

- Lax mitigation protocols and failing to follow the science has led to avoidable transmissions in the UK.
- Eat Out To Help Out directly led to transmissions while people were taking advantage of the scheme. The change in behaviour that it promoted led to many more.
- With every transmission, there's a chance of mutation, therefore, more transmissions = more chance of mutation.
Tallshort said:
Its not the UKs fault that the EU vaccination role out is a crock of rubbish, the UK didn't cause vaccine scepticism in France, the UK didn't try (and continue to try) to undermine the safety and effectiveness of the AZ vaccine, the UK hasn't gone and told the Germans to reverse their Easter lockdown plans despite growing cases and the UK didn't raid a vaccine warehouse in Italy only find a load of vaccines (surprise surprise) that were actually destined for the EU.

I know this is really hard to get your head round but have you thought that the reason mainland Europe is experiencing a third wave might be down to the governments of those countries not doing a very good job of managing the virus? No one seems reluctant to rightly blame Boris and his mob for the way they have handled things here but for some reason when it comes to looking at the EU leadership on this some of you lose your ******* minds and go into some mad, self-loathing whinge-fest on the very messed up logic that the EU is incapable of every cocking anything up.
Click to expand...
I don't know that much about how individual European countries have managed the pandemic, but the way that some European politicians have damaged public health efforts in pursuit of political points should be criminal.

All of this is irrelevant to the point of hand - the suggestion that Europe's current problems will wash up at our shores. I'm asking how B117 can make our problems worse when B117 is already responsible for 98%+ of our cases?
 
TRF_Olyy said:
I thought it was established that the "UK Variant" was named as such because it was discovered here due to us being one of the few countries that gene map (?? whatever it's called when they look at the makeup of the disease, not just look at the positives/negatives)
The fact that the highest concentrations of it (at it's discovery, anyway) were around busy ports and airports kinda strengthening that it came in from elsewhere
Click to expand...
You're right in saying that the UK is better than many / most other countries at picking up variants. It's a hell of a jump to say that this gives reason to suggest that it came from somewhere else though. I don't remember hearing about early cases being traced to recent travellers. More significantly, rates skyrocketed in the UK before anywhere else. If it came from elsewhere, you would expect that place to have experienced a spike in R rate like the UK experienced (which can't be attributed to anything else) before it started to become prevalent in the UK.
 

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