All Black Watch - Week 2

[TRF Mr Fish]

I know it's early in the season, but already we're seeing some players look like potential All Blacks, come the June series/The Rugby Championship. Every week (to keep myself occupied) I plan on doing a little analysis of how some potential new All Blacks are doing, along with a few players who are not certainties for the test squad but have been there in the past.

Without much ado, here are the most exciting forward prospects after week 1!

Props:

Ben Afeaki (Chiefs)
Afeaki has long been touted as a potential All Black prop, with most people in the know believing that if he can get some regular game time, he is a shoe in to make the squad at some point. His 2012 season was curtailed due to an arm injury sustained in the first match of the season, against the All Blacks. By seasons end he was able to deal with a few minor concussion issues and was used as solid impact sub for the finals series. Although it's early in the 2013 season, Afeaki has started well, holding his own in the scrum against Tony Woodcock, and in general having more of an impact in open plan. If Afeaki can stay injury free, he has a very good chance at making the June squad.

Ben Franks (Hurricanes)
Although Franks has been with the All Blacks for a number of seasons, he has never fully impressed as a specialist player. With the inclusion of an extra prop on the bench for the internationals, his ability to play both sides of the scrum is no longer such a big deal. It was a wise move for Franks, transferring to the Hurricanes, where he will now get regular game time, and was quite impressive in round 2 of the season, making a number of tackles and looking mobile in open play. He will need to improve on his scrum performance but at this point in the season he has plenty of time to do so.

The only other notable performance in the weekend came from Pauliasi Manu (Chiefs).

Hookers:

Rhys Marshall (Chiefs)
Coming into the season Marshall was a no name, having no first class games. Marshall was a member of the U20 squad from last year that lost in the finals of the competition and was signed up by Hawke's Bay, but made no appearances for them. He has since been contracted by Taranaki and will only make his ITM Cup debut next season for them. Against the Highlanders Marshall performed well, being thrust into the starting position due to Schwalger and Elliot both not being available. What followed was 80 minutes of quality play from the new hooker, who due to the age of incumbents Hore and Mealamu, could have the All Black selectors taking note. It is unlikely, however, he will make the All Blacks this year, with two good hookers in front of him at the Chiefs.

During the weekend Liam Coltman (Highlanders) did not perform as well as hoped, and Dane Coles (Hurriances) was fine without overly impressing. James Parsons (Blues) was probably the other stand out hooker for the weekend, but will have deliver constant good performances for the next couple of weeks to ensure he has a spot in his team's top 22.

Locks:

Ali Williams (Blues)
By no means a new player, Williams failed to impress spectators and critics alike but was still selected in the All Blacks squad. He was soon overtaken by Luke Romano and Brodie Retalick. Thankfully, in his first game as captain for the Blues, Williams stood up and delivered his best performance in a long time. With young locks such as Dominic Bird coming through, it is important than Williams does lead his team well this season, or he could be on the outer with the AB's.

Loose Forwards:

Sam Cane (Chiefs)
Selected as Richie McCaw's heir last year on the back of some solid performances for the Chiefs from the bench, Sam Cane was one of the stand outs in the few matches he played for the All Blacks. With McCaw out of action for the June series, it is likely Cane, along with potentially one other, will get a shot at the coveted 7 jersey. It is important for Cane, and NZ as a whole, that he does well this season, to show the world that NZ will not be without a successor to McCaw in the years to come. Accordingly, Cane had a fantastic game for the Chiefs, topping the tackle count and making some good metres on attack.

Steven Luatua (Blues) and Brad Shields (Hurricanes)
With the blindside flanker jersey still up for grabs with the All Blacks, there are four primary candidates: Liam Messam is the incumbent, Victor Vito is hot on his heels, and from the new young breed comes Luatua and Shields. Both players are well built and are aggressive carriers, more so than either of the two sixes listed above. Luatua was one of the stars of the Blues win, constantly eating up metres and making solid tackles. He's also deceptively good in the air, having spent a fair bit of time playing at lock. While Shields wasn't as fantastic for the Hurricanes (it should also be noted that he was playing at number 8), he still got through a good amount of work. This was especially promising considering he'd only played 30 minutes of pre season games prior to this match. Almost certainly one of these two players will make the June squad.

Also in action during the weekend was John Hardie (Highlanders), but he was outperformed by Cane, and did his team no help when his dropped ball ultimately cost the Highlanders a try. Fritz Lee (Chiefs) had his best performance to date, and will cause a few problems for opposition if he can regain his early ITM Cup season form. Similarly, Peter Saili (Blues) was much improved from last year. Luke Braid (Blues) currently looks the next best 7 behind Cane.

I'll do the backs tomorrow morning

 

[Amobokoboko]

Good writing. Will need to check last week's Blues game tonight as I only quickly viewed the highlights

 

[oldscumbagonian]

Have to agree about Luatua at 6. Very impressive.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

I'll be doing things a bit differently today, first off having a look at which players are all but guaranteed a position in the All Blacks (barring injury). and then from there seeing which positions have openings.

Props (3)
Certain
Owen Franks, Tony Woodcock
Probable
Charlie Faumuina

Hookers (2)
Certain
Kevin Mealamu, Andrew Hore
Probable
None

Locks (4)
Certain
Sam Whitelock, Luke Romano, Brodie Retalick
Probable
Ali Williams

Loose Forwards (4)
Certain
Sam Cane, Kieran Read
Probable
Victor Vito, Liam Messam

Halfbacks (2)
Certain
None
Probable
Piri Weepu, Aaron Smith

First Fives (3)
Certain
Dan Carter, Aaron Cruden
Probable
Beauden Barrett

Centres (2)
Certain
Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu
Probable
None

Outside Backs (4)
Certain
Israel Dagg, Ben Smith, Julian Savea
Probable
Hosea Gear

That's 24 positions probably taken up. Assuming a squad of 32, this leaves us with room for (in all likelihood) two more props, one more hooker, one more loosie, one more halfback, two more centres, and one more outside back (or vice versa, depending on where the selectors intend to play Ben Smith most). With Tamati Ellison and Richard Kahui out, in all likelihood they will select only one uncapped centre.

Props - 2 spots:

Wyatt Crockett (Crusaders)
Ben Franks (Hurricanes)
Toby Smith (Chiefs)
Ben Afeaki (Chiefs)
Ben Tameifuna (Chiefs)

Franks and Crockett have the front running, having been in the set up before. Both players have never really nailed their performances for the All Blacks, so they are definitely not guaranteed spots, and if any of the five current props are culled, it will probably be these two. I believe that one of the two will probably make the squad, with the other being a straight shoot out between Smith and Afeaki. As mentioned yesterday, Afeaki had a very solid game for the Chiefs, and should he remain injury free has a good chance of making the squad. Franks was solid for the Hurricanes, while the other three are yet to feature in any major way. Other less likely possibilities include Reggie Goodes and Jeffery Toomaga-Allen (both Hurricanes).

Hooker - 1 spot:

Dane Coles (Hurricanes)
Hika Elliot (Chiefs)
Ben Funnell (Crusaders)

As per usual, there is no certain backup behind Hore and Mealamu. Coles got some good game time with the All Blacks on their end of tour last year, so is the most likely candidate, but is only slightly ahead of Elliot, and a great season from him could see the berth going to him. The other player with a good chance is Ben Funnell from the Crusaders. He is a solid player and if he can perform in the early season he may wrestle the Crusaders no. 2 jersey off Corey Flynn, which will put him in a good position to get the third All Blacks spot as he is younger than the two others. Unlikely options behind them are Rhys Marshall (Chiefs), Quentin MacDonald (Blues) and Liam Coltman (Highlanders), who will need to get lots of game time if they are to grab a spot - which I can't see happening.

Lock - 0 spots:

Ali Williams will likely grab the fourth spot as Hansen is obviously a fan, and he has started the season well. There is no need to blood new locks at the moment with Whitelock and Retalick being quite young, and Romano not much older. The next cab of the rank, however, is likely to be Dominic Bird (Crusaders), should injury strike one of Whitelock or Romano. Bird is a young talent from Canterbury who is likely to have a future in the All Blacks.

Loose Forwards - 1 spot:

Brad Shields (Hurriances)
Steven Luatua (Blues)
Luke Braid (Blues)
Matt Todd (Crusaders)

It's possible that the All Blacks opt for one fewer back, and run with six loose forwards, but this is only likely to happen if one of Todd or Braid demand selection. As it stands, Cane will likely play open side for all three of the tests against France. The most likely of the list above to make the squad is probably Shields, as he has already been targeted by the selectors as a potential All Blacks due to his inclusion in the training camp early last year. As neither Messam nor Vito has really owned the 6 jersey, it is most likely that a young player will be selected to have a go at doing so. If Hansen and co. see one of Messam or Vito as surplus, this may open up a space for Braid, as he can cover multiple loose forward positions, which is where he has an advantage over Todd. The only other possible contender is Luke Whitelock (Crusaders) due to his inclusion in the aforementioned training camp. We are well stocked in loose forward back up at the moment.

Halfback - 1 spot:

Tawera Kerr-Barlow (Chiefs)
TJ Perenara (Hurricanes)

With Smith and Weepu likely taking the first two spots, there will probably be room for one more halfback in the squad. TKB was taken on the EOYT last year and got a small amount of game time, but otherwise has no major claim over Perenara for the third spot. Kerr-Barlow probably has an advantage on defence and in the tight play, whereas Perenara is more of a running halfback. Should both play to a high standard, it will be a straight shoot out between the two. TKB has started stronger this season, but of course we're only one week in. Behind them in the pecking order are Andy Ellis (Crusaders) who is unlikely to be selected, regardless of how well he plays, and Augustine Pulu (Chiefs), who has impressed in the last 12 months.

First Five - 0 spots:

With Carter, Cruden and Barrett all playing well last year, it is unlikely there will be room for another fly half. Even if one goes down with an injury, it is unlikely we will see a replacement come into the mix. Someone like Colin Slade (Highlanders) has the potential to sneak in as outside back cover, however.

Centre - 2 spots:

Francis Saili (Blues)
Andrew Horrell (Chiefs)
Tim Bateman (Hurricanes)
Robbie Fruean (Crusaders)

Of the above, Saili strikes as the most exciting prospect. He is young, fast and powerful, and has good distributive skills. Bateman has always performed well for the Hurricanes, but has yet to appear on the selectors radars, seemingly. Fruean seems destined to be a good Super Rugby player without ever making the step up. Horrell is a good possibility, and if the Chiefs play like they did last year he may have the inside running, especially has he can cover multiple positions. Ben Smith is perhaps the heir apparent to his namesake in the midfield, which may means the selectors only pick one of the above. Behind them come Ryan Crotty (Crusaders) and possibly Charlie Ngatai (Chiefs), with Rene Ranger (Blues) unlikely to be selected due to his (supposed) imminent departure.

Outside Backs - 1 spot:

Tim Nanai-Williams (Chiefs)
Andre Taylor (Hurricanes)
Charles Piutau (Blues)

Three specialist fullbacks are competing for one or two spots in the All Blacks, with TNW and Piutau probably the most likely to go through. Taylor had a fantastic season last year and still did not feature for the All Blacks in any form, not even making the training camp. Piutau is a brilliant young talent coming through, one of the shining lights or last year's disastrous Blues campaign. It is simply a case of when, not if, he becomes an All Black. Nanai-Williams has the benefit of being able to cover multiple positions, though does not really stand out as a centre. With Gear and Savea likely to be in the squad, it is improbable that the selectors will select another big, strong winger, which rules out guys like Asaeli Tikoirotuma (Chiefs) and Frank Halai (Blues). The next cab of the ranks might be Johnny McNicholl (Crusaders) who will likely get ample game time due to Zac Guildford's non-inclusion in the current Crusaders squad.

So there you have it, the main players contesting for All Blacks places during this year's Super Rugby competition. Each week I will run through these player's chances, along with any other gems who pop up along the way.

As it stands, I would guess the likely squad for June to be:
Props - Franks, Woodcock, Faumuina, Franks, Afeaki
Hookers - Hore, Mealamu, Coles
Locks - Whitelock, Romano, Retalick, Williams
Loose Forwards - Read, Cane, Messam, Vito, Shields
Halfbacks - Weepu, Smith, Kerr-Barlow
First Fives - Carter, Cruden, Barrett
Centres - Smith, Nonu, Smith, Saili
Outside Backs - Dagg, Gear, Savea, Piutau, Nanai-Williams

 

[Darwin]

Two excellent posts. It is hard to disagree with much of that analysis, and I reckon that squad you have selected at the end will be pretty close to the mark.

A few quick(ish) thoughts:

Props: I'm picking Ben Franks to have a big season for the Canes, and he certainly started well as you say. He has always looked far more comfortable on the LH side, and given a whole Super Rugby season to focus on that side I think will be good for him - indeed he may even be pushing Woodcock for a starting spot by the end of the season. We are actually a bit short of quality LH props at the moment, so I'm hoping Toby Smith steps up this season too. At TH there are plenty of options coming though - I really like the the look of Toomaga-Allen, and see him potentially in the AB's sometime this season. Faumuina is improving every week, and if Ben Afeaki can stay fit he will certainly come close too.

Locks: I'm hoping to see Boric back sooner rather than later - if he can get back to his pre-injury form (which I suspect will take some time) he should be part of the AB's again this season. I rate Josh Bekhuis quite highly too, but he is probably a we way down the AB's pecking order...

Loosies: Certainly and interesting position with McCaw resting and Thomson gone, leaving a spot (or possibly 2) open. Personally I'm a massive fan of Luke Braid, but the AB's selectors don't seem rate him for some reason - listening to Hansen talking on the radio it sounded like Todd, Hardie, and Latimer are all rated ahead of him. I like the potential of Shields, but he needs to have a massive (injury free) season. Likewise Luatua has a lot of talent, but again needs full season of Super Rugby before a judgement can be made on his readiness for test rugby. It was great to see Peter Saili have a big game for the Blues in the weekend. He still has tremendous potential - hopefully this is the season he finally delivers on his promise. I really rate Jordan Taufua, but he is probably a year away from getting any serious game-time at the Crusaders.

Halfbacks: I'm hoping for a Perenara/Smith halfback combo at the AB's, but I would imagine Weepu will sneak his way in there. Kerr-Barlow will be close too, and Augustine Pulu could be a bolter if he gets a few chances with the Chiefs. As you say Andy Ellis is unlikely to get a look in no matter how well he plays (and he has been playing very well for the last few years)

Midfield: Probably the area the AB's selectors are the most concerned about. Ben Smith will provide cover, but they will have to introduce some new players as you say. Like you I'm a massive fan of Saili, so would love to see him in Black this year (though again want to see him get through a full season of Super Rugby first). Kahui would be handy here too (for the early tests), but I'm sure he will be injured. The rest of the options aren't really that inspiring - Fruean is certainly exciting with ball in hand but his decision making and defense isn't up to test level, Ranger's distribution and decision making need a lot of work (and he is probably leaving), while Crotty and Bateaman are solid, but hardly inspiring. Personally out of those options I would go for Crotty who I feel is very under-rated by many, and I think the AB's selectors rate him pretty highly too.

Outside backs: Plenty of good options here (as always!). I'm not convinced Nanai-Williams will be there - he has some freakish skills, but I worry about him under pressure. Like you I would be surprised if Piutau isn't there. I think Andre Taylor will be very close - apparently the AB's selectors were in contact with him quite a bit last season, which indicates he isn't far away. What really impressed me on Saturday was his defense - something that used to be a weakness of his a couple of seasons ago. I rate Johnny McNicholl very highly, and expect too will be pushing for an AB's spot by the end of the season, as the selectors love wings that have a 'fullbacks skillset'.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Locks: I'm hoping to see Boric back sooner rather than later - if he can get back to his pre-injury form (which I suspect will take some time) he should be part of the AB's again this season. I rate Josh Bekhuis quite highly too, but he is probably a we way down the AB's pecking order...

Loosies: Certainly and interesting position with McCaw resting and Thomson gone, leaving a spot (or possibly 2) open. Personally I'm a massive fan of Luke Braid, but the AB's selectors don't seem rate him for some reason - listening to Hansen talking on the radio it sounded like Todd, Hardie, and Latimer are all rated ahead of him. I like the potential of Shields, but he needs to have a massive (injury free) season. Likewise Luatua has a lot of talent, but again needs full season of Super Rugby before a judgement can be made on his readiness for test rugby. It was great to see Peter Saili have a big game for the Blues in the weekend. He still has tremendous potential - hopefully this is the season he finally delivers on his promise. I really rate Jordan Taufua, but he is probably a year away from getting any serious game-time at the Crusaders.

Completely forgot about Boric! Yep, if he has a big season it will be interesting to see who the selectors go with.

When did you hear Hansen talk on the radio about the loosies?

 

[Darwin]

Completely forgot about Boric! Yep, if he has a big season it will be interesting to see who the selectors go with.

When did you hear Hansen talk on the radio about the loosies?

It was a couple of weeks ago on livesport (which I stream occasionally if I'm bored). I think it was with Ian Smith. Basically he declared his undying love for Sam Cane, and suggested there could a spot in the AB's backing him up, with Hardie, Latimer, and Todd the three 7's mentioned.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

You mean Ian Foster?

 

[Darwin]

You mean Ian Foster?

Sorry, Ian Smith was the the host (along with Jeff Wilson I think...). I will try and find a link, as they often keep recordings of their interviews...

 

[Shaggy]

While I'm a massive Sam Cane fan, and probably feel that Matt Todd has been unlucky so far, I'm looking forward to seeing what Ardie Savea can do at Super rugby level ... while he's an openside, mostly, he has played number 8 for Wellington, and the AB selectors do seem to like players that can play multiple positions, so he could be an option, if not this year, maybe next year

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

I think Ardie Savea has a lot to prove before he can be included in any squad - to me he doesn't suit the loose forwards, and I've yet to see any play from him that proves otherwise. I am looking forward to seeing how he does against some top opposition this year.