After just over a week, has your mind changed on who you think will win the Worl

[PacDuran]

Then you heavily, and ridiculously, underrate Australia...

Aussie back line could rip England to shreds. If England make it an arm wrestle they could easily scrum Oz into the ground, like they should have with Wales. It will be another intriguing game! I love the RWC! Even poor games are good and exciting with all the tension.

 

[ABs2011]

A small minority say it and I cringe every time. I suspect a lot of it is just trolling. Also a lot can be put down to the nature of tournaments and an appalling lack of understanding of probability. The ABs could be 75% favourites to win each of their knockout matches and that means they will be champions only 42% of the time. It's not that hard to understand.

You see, it's like this - probability is a choker. Maths is a choker.

It's definitely trolling, that dude says stupid crap all the time. I presume he is just a kid though.

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Thanks for this - it's so simple, but so many people struggle to understand even the meaning of probability let alone the most simple concepts. Even if you give NZ a 90% chance of winning all three knock out games (closer to where the bookies will place them IMO when you average it out), they are only going to win 73% of the time - hardly the certainty that the "it's going to happen because I said so" brigade would have you believe (unless they are rating NZ's chances of winning the individual games as better than 90% of course).

You only have to look at the odds you get on the ABs with the bookies to see that there is more chance of the ABs losing than winning the Cup. That may well have even been the case in RWC2011 as well. From memory I got them at $2.4.

I agree with what you are saying, the fundamentals of probabilities are lost on many people - just because we are heavy favourites to win RWCs doesn't necessarily mean there is a greater chance of winning than losing!

 

[Mcfadden]

I can definitely see Australia beating England. Of course, as someone said, they haven't played anyone of note yet. In fact, when they did play Fiji they failed to pick up the bonus point. This is basically England's final, and they'll throw everything at it. I just hope Australia's set piece can avoid crumbling under pressure. There are also a few guys who you don't really want to be there. Quade Cooper, Will Skelton, those guys would be up there. AAC, Folau, Kirindrani are the type of guys who will have to try and dismantle the English defence and get over the gain line.your forwards usually have to earn your team the right to go wide though, and I just hope Australia's step up, cause it'll take more than Pocock and Hooper.

 

[merlinux]

I can definitely see Australia beating England. Of course, as someone said, they haven't played anyone of note yet. In fact, when they did play Fiji they failed to pick up the bonus point. This is basically England's final, and they'll throw everything at it. I just hope Australia's set piece can avoid crumbling under pressure. There are also a few guys who you don't really want to be there. Quade Cooper, Will Skelton, those guys would be up there. AAC, Folau, Kirindrani are the type of guys who will have to try and dismantle the English defence and get over the gain line.your forwards usually have to earn your team the right to go wide though, and I just hope Australia's step up, cause it'll take more than Pocock and Hooper.

Surely foley will be the fly-half for this game?

 

[Mcfadden]

You'd hope so! Sorry, meant Skelton and Cooper can be risky players to have from Au's perspective due to discipline.

 

[Kiwi_]

They're not any good either.

Does anyone here really think Aussie can win this thing?

They have a coach who takes Cooper after his awful displays in the SR and RC and leaves home consistent reliable players, also senior players with leadership qualities. He's lucky he has Poey and Hooper or they would be down right awful.

 

[merlinux]

They're not any good either.

Does anyone here really think Aussie can win this thing?

They have a coach who takes Cooper after his awful displays in the SR and RC and leaves home consistent reliable players, also senior players with leadership qualities. He's lucky he has Poey and Hooper or they would be down right awful.

I still think we can 50/50

 

[RoosTah]

They're not any good either.

Does anyone here really think Aussie can win this thing?

They have a coach who takes Cooper after his awful displays in the SR and RC and leaves home consistent reliable players, also senior players with leadership qualities. He's lucky he has Poey and Hooper or they would be down right awful.

Skelton is out for the tournament, which I think will help us ultimately... meanwhile, Cooper was in our "B" team, so he'll be a bench player at best.

As for whether we can win it, well the RWC is a series of one off tests in effect, and as we all know in one off tests anything can happen. Cheika is still growing into his role as Wallabies coach, but I reckon he's done pretty well so far (I don't count the EOYT much because he literally had no prep for it and it was McKenzie's side).

I don't expect us to win the RWC, but then I didn't expect us to win all our Rugby Championship matches either and this RWC has been pretty unpredictable so far and even NZ looked a bit ordinary against the Argies, so who knows.

 

[ABs2011]

They're not any good either.

Does anyone here really think Aussie can win this thing?

They have a coach who takes Cooper after his awful displays in the SR and RC and leaves home consistent reliable players, also senior players with leadership qualities. He's lucky he has Poey and Hooper or they would be down right awful.

Absolutely they can win it.

Palu is a huge loss though.

 

[YoungScud]

I haven't changed my mind. Still Scotland to win it.

 

[austingtir]

They're not any good either.

Does anyone here really think Aussie can win this thing?

They have a coach who takes Cooper after his awful displays in the SR and RC and leaves home consistent reliable players, also senior players with leadership qualities. He's lucky he has Poey and Hooper or they would be down right awful.

Well I looked at the wiki of results history before the England v Wales match and it struck me that Wales was due a win.

Looking at this Australia is overdue a win aswell.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_rugby_union_matches_between_Australia_and_England

The scrum aside this England team is absolute rubbish. But I dont think Australia's that great either so it will be battle.

 

[81st_Minute]

All Blacks should have this in the bag. All they have to do is conjure up the magic that they showed in their now famous game against Australia in 2013, where Richie McCaw took on the Wallabies all by himself and won.

 

[austingtir]

All Blacks should have this in the bag. All they have to do is conjure up the magic that they showed in their now famous game against Australia in 2013, where Richie McCaw took on the Wallabies all by himself and won.

If Hansen is onto it and selects the right players yep id agree. Im not totally positive he's going to get it right though.

 

[ncurd]

All Blacks should have this in the bag.

I should point out 99% of English fans and quite a few Welsh though England had last week in the bag (before team selection then the doom and gloom started)....a few SAffers said the same about the Japan game....

I really would avoid statements like this as they will come back to haunt you.

 

[81st_Minute]

Nah, we have Sir Richie.

 

[Icemn]

for me still Ireland... then NZ... and then france maybe wales cuz of their national anthem

 

[PacDuran]

Nah, we have Sir Richie.

Pocock will pocket him as usual if they play each other. I also would have the Saffers as favourites to whip the AB's if they end up playing each other (semi I think) as long as Loot De Jager is picked along with Etzebeth. IF the AB's can barley handle Argentinian pressure then the saffers will out muscle them humiliatingly.

 

[Dirty Ape]

IF the AB's can barley handle Argentinian pressure then the saffers will out muscle them humiliatingly.

Heh - you do realise you said this on a public forum right?

So many things wrong....
1. 'Barely'
2. So when it comes to dealing with Argentina - how many times have we lost to them? Didn't you guys just lose to them last month? In Durban?
3. Considering we played badly, butchered 4 tries, had two players sin-binned, and still won comfortably, I'd say we handled the Argentinians just fine.
4. When was the last time the ABs were "out-musled humiliatingly" by the Boks? Genuine question. It has definitely happened but I can't remember the last time.

I hope we play the boks. And after we do I strongly suspect I will be back to remind you of your above prediction.

 

[PacDuran]

Heh - you do realise you said this on a public forum right?

So many things wrong....
1. 'Barely'
2. So when it comes to dealing with Argentina - how many times have we lost to them? Didn't you guys just lose to them last month? In Durban?
3. Considering we played badly, butchered 4 tries, had two players sin-binned, and still won comfortably, I'd say we handled the Argentinians just fine.
4. When was the last time the ABs were "out-musled humiliatingly" by the Boks? Genuine question. It has definitely happened but I can't remember the last time.

I hope we play the boks. And after we do I strongly suspect I will be back to remind you of your above prediction.

Get your stinking paws off me you damn dirty ape!

1. Barely when the Pumas weren't gassed. Your guys superior conditioning really told in the end. Great game though.
2. I'm Irish not Safferican!
3. Getting players sin binned is part of the match and you have to deal with your indiscipline. They also had a guy binned too.
4. I think the last time time as that would qualify as "humiliatingly outmuscled was 4 years ago 18 â€" 5 at Mandela stadium. Just going off wikipedia mind, can't remember the game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cdmqn9JIuzc :lol::lol::lol:

 

[81st_Minute]

Pocock will pocket him as usual if they play each other. I also would have the Saffers as favourites to whip the AB's if they end up playing each other (semi I think) as long as Loot De Jager is picked along with Etzebeth. IF the AB's can barley handle Argentinian pressure then the saffers will out muscle them humiliatingly.

Except that the Pumas are a stronger side than RSA these days...