After just over a week, has your mind changed on who you think will win the Worl

[ABs2011]

NZ vs Ireland final.

People are rating Australia, but they're actually terrible out of Sydney and Cheika has picked the wrong squad. Their 9 and 10 combinations won't see them through and they don't have the brains in the midfield. Poey and Hooper can only do so much.

Overrated team, overrated coach and one too many d!ckheads.

They are the only country to have won 2 RWCs away from home, that's 2 more than us

Also, perhaps surprisingly the OZ record from 2011 away from home is actually pretty good IMO. Without looking at other countries records I wouldn't be surprised if it is up there maybe even better than everyone else bar NZ.

So if you take the OZ NZ games out of the equation OZ (I think) are 21 - 9 from 2011 away from home. If you add NZ into the equation things change a bit obviously, but that is probably not a fair comparison to other teams given how often OZ has had to play NZ in NZ over the last 4 years.

I wonder if there is a team in the world with a better away record than that (other than NZ of course)?

 

[Kiwi_]

They are the only country to have won 2 RWCs away from home, that's 2 more than us

Also, perhaps surprisingly the OZ record from 2011 away from home is actually pretty good IMO. Without looking at other countries records I wouldn't be surprised if it is up there maybe even better than everyone else bar NZ.

So if you take the OZ NZ games out of the equation OZ (I think) are 21 - 9 from 2011 away from home. If you add NZ into the equation things change a bit obviously, but that is probably not a fair comparison to other teams given how often OZ has had to play NZ in NZ over the last 4 years.

I wonder if there is a team in the world with a better away record than that (other than NZ of course)?

I don't get the comparison with past generations to the latest generation. I'm taking the current generations away form. They lost to all the major teams in last years tour, a part from Wales and I actually can't remember the last time they beat us or SA away from Australia, I think 2010 in Hong Kong? I will see how they go against England and Wales before I change my opinion of their away form. But I don't think they have a chance vs us outside of Australia.

 

[ABs2011]

I don't get the comparison with past generations to the latest generation. I'm taking the current generations away form. They lost to all the major teams in last years tour, a part from Wales and I actually can't remember the last time they beat us or SA away from Australia, I think 2010 in Hong Kong? I will see how they go against England and Wales before I change my opinion of their away form. But I don't think they have a chance vs us outside of Australia.

Looking at past WCs is relevant to an extent. People bring up the ABs record all the time. Regardless it is simply a casual observation that Australia have the best away record of any team and no one can take that away from them. It is interesting if nothing more with respect to this current team.

Otherwise, I think you have far too small a sample size to make such a sweeping statement about their away record if you are just going to look at their last few games.

I think teams records from 2011 is a bit more appropriate. Importantly this is roughly the period of time a team uses to build towards a world cup. SO what are the records? These might be slightly off, but from my quick look (excluding games against NZ) Australia actually have the best record again of all the contending teams (bar NZ).

Australia 21/9, thats a 70% away win record.
SA 16/9 = 64%
England 15/9 = 63%
Ireland 18/11 = 62%
Wales 17/13 = 57%
France 12/14 = 46%

Hard to discount those numbers let alone say they are terrible outside of OZ or overrated

 

[tompaton7]

People forget that the last two world cup finals were played by teams who met in the pool stages. I'm predicting it will happen again. NZ V Argentina final

 

[tompaton7]

Although it is unfortunate, I do think the injury situation has been overblown to some degree. Wales's game plan revolves primarily around the forwards at the moment, all of which are fit and available. The forwards is also where Wales have the most strength in depth - there are multiple positions where players are fighting for starting spots i.e. Owens/Baldwin, Lee/Francis, Charteris/Davies, Lydiate/Tipuric. I think this healthy competition between players is one of the reasons this group of forwards has been putting in such gutsy performances. For the Fiji clash, Wales have multiple possible options with the forwards, perhaps bringing Jake Ball into the mix for some attritional play, or Moriarty for the same purpose. So even the forwards who will definitely not get a starting place against Australia still have a purpose to play and the strength in depth is there.

With the backs, Davies has been great so far and Lloyd Williams is on form too. Biggar is Biggar, but Priestland hasn't been great. Roberts is crucial to our game plan and an injury to him would be very costly. Outside centre is now Wales' biggest concern, but if North does slot in it's good to know he has played there a bit now. The back 3 is the biggest concern, but there are still plenty of options in my eyes. Morgan is an attacking threat at wing or fullback, Priestland could play fullback (though I wouldn't want this), Eli Walker could potentially come back in, North may well stay on the wing if Tyler Morgan gets brought back in, not to mention the likes of Jordan Williams, Kristian Phillips, Harry Robinson, Rhys Patchell, James Hook, Tom James, Dan Evans, Hanno Dirksen, Richard Fussell and Dan Fish who could be called upon. So personally, I don't think Wales' strength in depth is too bad. I mean, if worse comes to worst they should just stick Lloyd on the wing again, seems to know what he's doing

I don't think it's that bad either. Lets assume the worst for Thursday, with all 3 of those blokes injured. Here's the team we can still pick:

1. Jenkins, 2. Owens/Baldwin, 3. Lee/Francis, 4. Charteris/Davies/Ball, 5. AW Jones, 6. Warburton/Lydiate/Moriarty, 7. Warburton/Tipuric, 8. Faletau/Moriarty, 9. Davies/Phillips/Williams, 10. Biggar, 11. North, 12. Roberts, 13. Tyler Morgan, 14. Cuthbert, 15. Anscombe/Matthew Morgan/Hook

We can still can in some good players. If Amos is out, I reckon we should call on Anscombe as he is quality, but there's also the option of Hook or even Eli Walker who is fit again apparently. Liam Williams won't be out of the whole tournament hopefully if he is not badly concussed so it's not doom and gloom. It's far from ideal, but I'd like to think we can cope.

 

[Kiwi_]

People forget that the last two world cup finals were played by teams who met in the pool stages. I'm predicting it will happen again. NZ V Argentina final

I to hope for this final, it would be great. Either that or NZ vs Ireland.

If NZ can't win it, it'd be great for someone to win it who hasn't, I'd be happy with even Wales or France.

 

[CanKiwi]

I thinks its quite naive to say that any coach sets up his team to lose. Tinkering yes but not all out giving up a game in the hopes of seeing some play and being well grounded going into the rwc, so apologies but I think that theory is flawed from the get go. It was clear the AB's showed things in that last game that changed the outcome completely, and I would say we have not had that same demonstration yet in this series that they have faced. Is that because the Puma's dealt to them or because the AB's held back a little for the next level after pool play.

I have Ireland over France and then playing in QF2 vs NZ. Wales are great but cannot take any in the setting of the injuries they have this weekend, otherwise they were favourite from that pool after Aussies. So its fun to speculate, but I feel bad for SA and Eng for their losses that put their progression in jeopardy now. Gonna be great.

 

[nzlizard]

NZ vs Ireland final.

People are rating Australia, but they're actually terrible out of Sydney and Cheika has picked the wrong squad. Their 9 and 10 combinations won't see them through and they don't have the brains in the midfield. Poey and Hooper can only do so much.

Overrated team, overrated coach and one too many d!ckheads.

Until I have seen them play Eng or Wales I will reserve judgement.

People forget that the last two world cup finals were played by teams who met in the pool stages. I'm predicting it will happen again. NZ V Argentina final

Argentina have looked good this year but I struggle to see them having the mettle to make it all the way, I just don't think they are ready.

 

[The Jones Boy]

I want FRance in the quarters at Millennium , I want Re Weng gay?

 

[rugby_mad]

my semi-final guess..

Springboks vs All Blacks

Wallabies vs Ireland

^_^

 

[nzlizard]

my semi-final guess..

Springboks vs All Blacks

Wallabies vs Ireland

^_^

Yeah that would seem the most likely scenario, Aus just has to get over England and SA need to win there pool, which comes down to Scotland and Samoa having a say.

 

[SomeOke]

my semi-final guess..

Springboks vs All Blacks

Wallabies vs Ireland

^_^

People seem to be taking it for granted that Aus are going to top there pool but they haven't actually played anyone of note yet.
I agree that your scenario is pretty likely though, especially if you change it to NZ vs Wales/Aus/Eng

 

[Cookies]

I can't see Australia beating England.

 

[GoTheNaki]

I can't see Australia beating England.

Then you heavily, and ridiculously, underrate Australia...

 

[Cookies]

Perhaps. Time will tell. I don't believe this Australian team can play under pressure. I could be wrong though.

 

[jflintoff]

Perhaps. Time will tell. I don't believe this Australian team can play under pressure. I could be wrong though.

England were under a lot of pressure to win the Wales game, and bottled it and there is a tremendous amount of pressure on England going into this game

 

[Cookies]

Well, maybe it'll be 0-0 at full time lol

 

[GoTheNaki]

Heineken hasn't made a England vs Australia thread yet. But I see Australia starting Bernard Foley, he kicks better than Cooper, and seems to play better under pressure. Quade for x-factor on at 60 minutes if Australia are finding England hard to break down running at the line.

I don't feel Cooper's tackle was anything horrid, I feel it was soft. Stuff like that happens literally EVERY game, several times. So I would hope he isn't going to miss any games, that would be stupid.

 

[RedruthRFC]

A small minority say it and I cringe every time. I suspect a lot of it is just trolling. Also a lot can be put down to the nature of tournaments and an appalling lack of understanding of probability. The ABs could be 75% favourites to win each of their knockout matches and that means they will be champions only 42% of the time. It's not that hard to understand.

You see, it's like this - probability is a choker. Maths is a choker.

Thanks for this - it's so simple, but so many people struggle to understand even the meaning of probability let alone the most simple concepts. Even if you give NZ a 90% chance of winning all three knock out games (closer to where the bookies will place them IMO when you average it out), they are only going to win 73% of the time - hardly the certainty that the "it's going to happen because I said so" brigade would have you believe (unless they are rating NZ's chances of winning the individual games as better than 90% of course).

 

[FlukeArtist]

Thanks for this - it's so simple, but so many people struggle to understand even the meaning of probability let alone the most simple concepts. Even if you give NZ a 90% chance of winning all three knock out games (closer to where the bookies will place them IMO when you average it out), they are only going to win 73% of the time - hardly the certainty that the "it's going to happen because I said so" brigade would have you believe (unless they are rating NZ's chances of winning the individual games as better than 90% of course).

To quote Homer Simpson:
"pfffftt Facts are meaningless. You can use facts to prove anything that is even remotely true. Facts schmachts"