A Political Thread

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

I mean Ireland on the whole has been pretty strict with it's politics and religion bias.

Got to remember that Ireland only legalised Gay Marriage in 2015 and only due to a referendum and it's still has big abortion issues. Fortunately the younger generation has made a big difference in helping to speed up such things and the mentality is changing rapidly (As shown by their new PM

DUP is like that but on steroids and a **** load of drugs.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I mean Ireland on the whole has been pretty strict with it's politics and religion bias.

Got to remember that Ireland only legalised Gay Marriage in 2015 and only due to a referendum and it's still has big abortion issues. Fortunately the younger generation has made a big difference in helping to speed up such things and the mentality is changing rapidly (As shown by their new PM

DUP is like that but on steroids and a **** load of drugs.

Who also dabble in oppressing minorities! They're nazis without the charisma!

 

[Gavin]

After growing up in Northern Ireland and dealing with the politics until the age of 19 when I moved away for university I do pity the other voters of the UK who are now learning about the DUP.

Northern Ireland have been sh*t on by the DUP for the past ten years, now it's time to sh*t on the rest of the UK

 

[The Jones Boy]

Give 'em enough rope...
Corbyn, SNP and LIb -Dem will only make hay out of this at the next election.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Theresa got the kicking from the electorate she deserved. She stays until another conservative leader can be agreed upon, then I think another election within the next year . But let's not make this out as some great Corbyn victory, Labour won 7 more seats than Brown did in 2010. Hardly a ringing endorsement as a PM in waiting; he can **** right off offering to form a minority government with 262 seats with Lib Dems, Greens and SNP. May lost this big time and only a matter of time before she goes.

 

[The Jones Boy]

It wasn't about it being a ringing endorsement, it was about Corbyn being utterly demonised in the press for a long period before the election, and then having Diane Abbott behaving like a beached whale in national interviews (something is seriously wrong with her, medication or dementia) then he hit the road and started doing the old fashioned mass rallies and the people he met didn't love him, but they liked his message.
He behaved like a gentleman and his campaign was played with a straight bat.
The Tories on the other hand ran some of the most awful personal attacks against him on social media and it didn't stop his popularity from increasing. It's lucky for the conservatives (and possibly Labour in the longer term) that this was such a short campaigning season cut down by the two atrocities because Corbyn was only going to continue to gain votes.
Austerity is not welcomed by the majority in this land and the three parties who were against Austerity garnered more votes than the conservatives.
Brexit is looming and nothing good will come out of Brexit short term,
With May and co. likely to bring more austerity and an ugly union with the hard right and frankly dangerous DUP with terrorist links, the Conservatives are teetering on the brink of a meltdown.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Then what's the point of Corbyn if he is not there to seek power? He was offering to "serve" and form a minority Government of his own and still could if Conservative/DUP collapses in the next 5 years.

 

[General Melchett]

Peter Hain made a good point on the BBC just now in that if the Tories start doing favours for the DUP (which it shouldn't as its meant to be neutral as per the Good Friday agreement) then it could destabilise N Ireland as the other parties there will kick up a stink. If the DUP insist on keeping the soft border then it's hard to imagine the UK leaving EU customs union. The snap election has created a host of problems. Talk about the Tories shooting themselves in the foot.

It's a matter of time before May gets the boot. The priorities are forming a Govt first and the leadership issue will be dealt with further down the line. Her two aides getting the boot will give May a reprieve of a few months. I suspect senior Tories will goad Boris into a leadership bid but I doubt he will win. He will be duped into thinking he will win but someone else will emerge as a better prospect. It's going to be a busy few months of horse trading and back stabbing.

 

[ncurd]

We'd only offer him supply and confidence and the numbers don't add up anyway any alliance will need some the DUP and Tories to vote on the budget and Queens speech.

Plus Labour are too far left currently for many Lib Dems. And Corbyn can't work with the many alliances within his own party let alone external ones. Slightly annoying this result is being seen as victory when as noted it's only Gordon Brown good. And I can't see him doing well enough to taking the additional 60 seats he needs. His fans are saying the complete opposite though n9t realising it was May not Corbyn that lost this for the Tories.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Maybe it's a good thing no one won. It means Parties have to talk to each other and come up with a consensus for the way this country is going forward. British public basically saying no we will not give any party carte Blanche to do what they want - rejected May, but didn't endorse Corbyn as PM. Doing the maths Corbyn couldn't get enough seats anyway ATM - Sinn Fein's 7 MPs abstaining (wonder if they they would reverse this if DUP turn out to be Kingmakers) and speaker of the house not being able to vote.

Also lesson is Opinion polls are pile a rubbish. Only accurate one that was in the ball park was the Exit poll.

 

[Which Tyler]

I do find the spin on this election quite interesting...
People either seem to think that the Tories did really well, with the highest share of the popular vote in 60 years; whilst Labour "only" did Gordon Brown numbers, and failed badly as they're still a significant minority.
OR
People seem to think that the Tories failed badly, losing their majority; whilst Labour did really well, with the highest share of the popular vote in 60 years.

Even @ncurd, sitting in the middle as a neutral in this falls into this, whilst also saying that "it was May, not Corbyn that lost this for the Tories"

In reality however, both Labour AND Tories increased their share of the popular vote (labour by more than Tories); whilst only one of those parties increased their seats in parliament (and we ARE stuck with a FPTP system after all); and Corbyn did as much well as May did badly. To heap all the credit/blame to one side is to completely ignore what happened during the campaign.

May alienated voters by lying, doing U-turns, dodging questions, and releasing a bad manifesto
Corbyn claimed voters by showing integrity, getting a fair hearing on his opinions, and appealing to people (young, old and in between) who actually care about policy (however valid criticisms of not costing the manifesto are).

Also lesson is Opinion polls are pile a rubbish. Only accurate one that was in the ball park was the Exit poll.

As with the last few votes, and "the opinion polls are rubbish" - they're not really, they're just interpretted really badly.
Opinion polls initially showed a strong conservative majority, which decreased week by week, to the point that most polls were within their margin of error for a hung parliament by the time people were actualy casting their votes.
Same in the USA - initially showing an easy victory, then really squeaky bum time by voting day
Same with Brexit - initially showing an easy victory, then really squeaky bum time by voting day

 

[ncurd]

Actually the you gov stuff with their new model was fairly accurate. They can probably decrease their margins of error next time.

I prefer parties coming together and coalitions I'm just not convinced that a DUP/Tory agreement is good for anyone. UKIP might of actually been better bed fellow insanely....

 

[Bada-Bing!]

All this 7 points - 20 points in the lead etc is rubbish it doesn't show how parties are relative to each other within constituencies which is what counts and what opinion polls can't show.

 

[Which Tyler]

I prefer parties coming together and coalitions.

I'm in absolute agreement on this. I personally think that party politics is a broken system anyway; the candidates are supposed to represent their constituency, not their party whip!
FPTP ensures that all the worst aspects of party poilitics are magnified; and does it's best to ensure that there's never a rule of consensus; further execcarbating partisanship.

All this 7 points - 20 points in the lead etc is rubbish it doesn't show how parties are relative to each other within constituencies which is what counts and what opinion polls can't show.

They do their best with what they have; but if you're reading the polls that way, then you're reading them wrongly.

 

[ncurd]

With the May lost it the clear turning point in this election was the manifestos. I think the Labour one was bold (didn't add up in numbers but they tried mind you the Tory wasn't much better in that regard) but I don't thinking people changed their mind until the Conservative one came out. I think it might be mad but it really is the dementia tax that switched public opinion enough. Soft Tories just couldn't back it. I'm a little disappointed despite some targeting we couldn't capitalise on that or anything really.

Which is why I said May lost it I think a centre right manifesto with very few contentious points like a Cameron one would of romped home to victory. Of course also other factors is Corbyn barely put a foot wrong and May just had bad day after bad day.

 

[ncurd]

All this 7 points - 20 points in the lead etc is rubbish it doesn't show how parties are relative to each other within constituencies which is what counts and what opinion polls can't show.

Actually the you gov model did do breakdowns on each constiuetcy. They were pretty good.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

They do their best with what they have; but if you're reading the polls that way, then you're reading them wrongly.

I won't be paying much attention to them in the future that's what I am saying.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Actually the you gov model did do breakdowns on each constiuetcy. They were pretty good.

Yup,
On the reddit live thread they were comparing yougov to actual results as they were announced and they were remarkably accurate

 

[Which Tyler]

Trump wants to cancel his state visit to the UK... Well, postpone it until wphes welcomed with ticker-tape, not protests; which is the same thing. I must admit, I didn't think he was capable of that level of self-awareness!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...state-visit-to-britain-put-on-hold?CMP=twt_gu


ETA: I wonder if that was before or after his spat with Sadiq Khan, and relevant or not in his completely ignoring the election result.

Or if this had anything to do with it from Friday night (possibly NSFW)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DB6Os3CXcAA6oGu.png

 

[TRF_Olyy]

The British public will never support him coming here, so he might as well put the idea out of his head.