A Political Thread

[ncurd]

Yes and No

Honestly I still don't think Labour will win but I think the concept of a thumping Tory majority is rapidly diminishing overall gains might be in the mid 20's at best.
And to be honest thats a bit of a victory (for the anyone but a Tory party) considering the position they looking at weeks ago.

 

[General Melchett]

Is there a risk May could face a leadership challenge if she doesn't increase her majority by a large enough margin?

 

[General Melchett]

Is there a risk May could face a leadership challenge if she doesn't increase her majority by a large enough margin?

Given that she has chosen to turn it into a personality contest as opposed a choice between political parties it wouldn't exactly a strong mandate if she doesn't get much of an increase. Also, given that her rival is completely inept and a million miles away from PM material it really doesn't bode well for her if she fails to capitalise.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Yes and No

Honestly I still don't think Labour will win but I think the concept of a thumping Tory majority is rapidly diminishing overall gains might be in the mid 20's at best.
And to be honest thats a bit of a victory (for the anyone but a Tory party) considering the position they looking at weeks ago.

Were you also one of those who thought the Lib Dems would only have 8 MPs at the last election?

50 seat majority and above. Don't think it'll be below and not above 100.

 

[ncurd]

Its very unlikely the Tories history of backstabbing tends to be mid to late government when they start thinking about the next election.

I think the only way she'd struggle is if she didn't return a majority it was a such a small one before (12 seats) that even a reduced majority (extremely unlikely still) isn't really much different. It will be chalked up as a valiant attempt.

The real question is how much the Tories will need to win by for Corbyn to resign. As that might be unlikely if they don't get a thumping victory as he'll say the election campaign managed to get people to listen to his message and he'll build on that.

Which is madness a losing major party leader almost always resigns but I don't think Corbyn will go quietly, I also don't think he'll lose unless he steps aside and then they'll elect whoever he back. Cult of Corbyn is huge in Labour activists currently.



In others I predict Greens/UKIP will stay the same and I'm unsure about Lib Dems the vocal target is doubling the MP's but I get the feeling anti-Bexit isn't working as well as many thought it would and it maybe quite modest gains. The problem is who do they pick? Farron was a hugely popular person within the party who had stood by his principals in coalition. That doesn't leave many to pick from, Tom Brake or Norman Lamb might be the only choices out of current MPs and out of ex-MPs who might come back there aren't many. They all have to win of course and I'm not aware of a truly safe seat at the moment.

 

[ncurd]

Were you also one of those who thought the Lib Dems would only have 8 MPs at the last election?

Nobody thought that.....

Plus the polls weren't that many miles out last time
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini...d_Kingdom_general_election,_2015#Poll_results

The problem was modelling those polls onto seats gained as the old models failed spectacularly but only really in Lib Dem areas if they had made the losses many predicted we'd probably be facing another coalition right now with no Brexit.

 

[The Jones Boy]

Corbyn seems to be making real ground with the young voters, (No tuition fees is a major calling card for the younger generation) but how many are registered and will remember to vote.
Older people tend to vote more conservative and they make more effort to have their say.

People are noticing that NOTHING in the conservative manifesto is costed.
That is really cheeky. It smacks of, "We don't need to cost anything, victory is a given because... Corbyn.
Then Teresa Mays school breakfasts are now under the microscope as ballooning out into the hundreds of millions.
Grammar schools are not popular and the option of either of two school breakfasts, the 'Hard breakfast' or the more continental 'Soft Breakfast' is not going down well.
Throw in the Dementia tax to punish the old people... she's letting the unelectable labour leader start to look a possibility.
She's on a downward slide and the this is the wrong time to be dipping because it means that the other parties will get more coverage as we go to polling day.
Who knew eh?

The conservatives will have the knives out in the post election period, they are smarter than the divisive Blairites in the Labour party. Do your dirty business when in power, not on the outside.

I wonder if Corbyn will poll better than Millibland?

 

[ncurd]

The other problem is Labout have a very likable and popular manifesto apart from the Union stuff. They'd probably win by a landslide on it if we could afford it and they had some level of compentence at the helm.

However nobody likes the Tory manifesto even the Brexit or bust group that will vote for her regardless of any other policy are not keen on the rest of it. They are just voting for perceived competence instead and May has not been good at projecting that.

The general perception seams to be the top Tories vastly miscalculated actual support in their views against the fact most find Corbyn is a joke. Alot find the idea of a strong Tory party who can push through anything as a genuine problem. Plus they remember Blair's majorities where he could do what he liked and even mass rebellions were shot down.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I think I read somewhere that there is about 5.7 million between 18-30, but over 11 million voters over 50. So the older voters not only outnumber the 18-30s significantly they are more likely to come out and vote.

Plus factor in Labour will lose a large proportion of their working class white vote (their core vote), who voted UKIP and if the council elections are to be believed will likely now vote Tory because they wanted Brexit and it's a long way for Labour and Corbyn to no.10.

The question is how much he will lose by, not if.

Nobody thought that.....

Plus the polls weren't that many miles out last time
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini...d_Kingdom_general_election,_2015#Poll_results

The problem was modelling those polls onto seats gained as the old models failed spectacularly but only really in Lib Dem areas if they had made the losses many predicted we'd probably be facing another coalition right now with no Brexit.

The 2015 polls underestimated the Conservative vote, but overestimated both Labour and Lib Dems.

The problem in the last election, voters in the Lib Dem Seats thought what was the point of Lib Dems in a Coalition Government and switched to Conservatives largely to keep out a Labour/SNP coalition and also Ed Milliband's lack of perceived PM qualities.

This time round Conservatives will hoover up the UKIP vote and Labour's disaffected working class vote who want Brexit. How can Corbyn make much impact in terms of seats without these two core groups of voters? However, much young people have been registering to vote in the last few weeks.

 

[ncurd]

Anyone who thinks the young vote will swing it are massively mistaken.

Or Tuition fees for that matter will swing anyone beyond their current standpoint. I've had some very interesting conversation on Lib Dem groups and the only people who seem to care about tuition fees anymore are my generation who had it inflicted upon them.

Nope the old vote will decide this election (as it does everything else) and the Dementia Tax is incredibly toxic for the Tories some might not vote Labour but they may not turn up either.

I know what you say about Brexit but May's approach is not popular except with the hardcore group and with Labour still supporting I don't think many believe Corbyn will come out with a worse deal. I think the Lib Dems have discovered to our cost that nobody cares enough and that any party will get the deal they get. Like I said the hardcore ends of the spectrum disagree entirely but I don't think there are as many hardcore people about the EU as people suspected.

I still don't understand how anyone who voted Liberal Democrat voted Tory (the only two people who I know switched were Tory in mind anyway just voting lib dem because their friends did and they like to back the 'winner', honestly they are more UKIP than Tory in views)......but then I'm a dyed in the wool card carrying member on the left of the party.

 

[General Melchett]

This isn't an anti-old person post but you've got to feel for young people who have had their hopes of living and working in other EU countries shattered largely by anti-foreigner old people who have no intention of leaving the island. The irony is that the young people are having to get into debt in order to get a degree which will help them find a job, the taxes from which will help pay for the NHS which the old people who shafted them will mostly benefit from. I really hope the EU offers young Brits the opportuity to opt in and retain some kind of associate EU citizenship. If I were a young student or graduate I would be getting out of the UK while I can.

 

[The Jones Boy]

The key element with the free tuition fees is that it is appealing to the younger vote, but it's also appealing to their parents as well.
I'd know, I'm an older parent and my 'peers' are all considering voting labour in spite of the Corbyn/Abbot factor, specifically because they don't want their kids to have their future rannsomed to a cold heartless govt full of old politicians who enjoyed a free education in their time.
It's a policy that is resonating into middle aged voters.
From there it's an easy step for Corbyn to say, Hang on, they have free tuition in Scotland, why can't we have it in England?
It's certainly piqued a lot interest, not just the young folk who are facing the fees.

Then naturally you hear the cry of 'how are you going to pay for it?' and rather than give a definitive answer, Labour are starting to get a bit of a roll on with the fact that we just had 6 years of George Osborne's 'austerity, where the very rich made great strides in expanding both their own income but also the gap between them and everyone else and lo and behold, the deficit has increased.
So what was all the austerity for the poorer section of our society for exactly?
It's a good argument and one that the Tories cannot refute.
Couple it with the disaster the Tories have created with the NHS waiting times and the lack of doctors, nurses, police officers. The Tories have done a rotten job, and given us Brexit.

It's an indication of how much in fighting has been going on that Labour have struggled to make in roads against this party for the rich.
If anything turns off voters it is public in-fighting among party members.
The Tories have struck a chord with the strong and stable pitch, it's not the strong, it's the 'stable' part that catches the voters ears.
The Blairites have been the single biggest threat to Labour, not just in terms of getting elected, but in terms of having credibility as a party.
They have permeated Labour with an air of instability.
For the time being it has stopped but regardless of the outcome the knives will be out again after the election and Corbyn will need inch thick stainless steel covering his entire back.

 

[Gavin]

Views on Corbyn's discussion on foreign policy?

He is saying everything I believe. Western interference over the past 20 years has caused (to some degree) the current international climate.

 

[ncurd]

He's right and he's wrong.

He's right Radical Islamists use our foreign wars as a means to recruit.

He's wrong because they would use non-intervention as a way to recruit otherwise.

It's a lose lose situation.

 

[Gavin]

I was reading about the lad who caused the Manchester attacks and his relation to Libya. The fact that he was part of a militia which was fighting Gaddafi, which was considered a 'rebel group' so the western powers where pro-them. However the leader of his group used to be part of and had links to Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.

It was interesting that he was our ally when he was fighting against a foreign power the west didn't like.

 

[Lé Ddanno]

Neil is going to eat Corbyn alive later

 

[ncurd]

Cornyn is doing better than May so far.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Views on Corbyn's discussion on foreign policy?

He is saying everything I believe. Western interference over the past 20 years has caused (to some degree) the current international climate.

And yet IS's ultimate aim is a worldwide caliphate without borders under Sharia Law. How does Corbyn reconcile this with blaming Western Government's foreign policy? They would still want a worldwide caliphate regardless of what western foreign policy is, as Governments run contrary to their belief that laws are man made and not in accordance to the Quran.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

It was interesting that he was our ally when he was fighting against a foreign power the west didn't like.

Bin Laden was America's best mate while the Russians were knocking about in Afghanistan

It's always the risk when working with rebels, the enemy of my enemy isn't always my friend. They're more than happy to take the weapons and training to fight their bigger evil, but as soon as that's gone then you're not exactly on their Christmas card list

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Bin Laden was America's best mate while the Russians were knocking about in Afghanistan

america has a great record of doing **** like that.