A Political Thread pt. 2

[Gavin]

If you vote to erect trade barriers...

It's as if people who voted for Brexit believed that they wouldn't have to follow any EU rules once we left.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

The latest advice for small businesses, from the government: set up shop inside the EU

Move to EU to avoid Brexit costs, firms told

Exporters advised by Department for International Trade officials to form EU-based companies to circumvent border issues

www.theguardian.com

 

[Which Tyler]

It's as if people who voted for Brexit believed that they wouldn't have to follow any EU rules once we left.

 

[The Seeker]

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Donald Trump is gone but his big lie is a rallying call for rightwing extremists

The myth of the ‘stolen election’ – simple and endlessly repeated – is likely to be a rallying call for far-right terrorists

www.theguardian.com

 

[Which Tyler]

I thought I'd have a go

 

[Marlowes]

So someone correct me is I'm wrong US counting is ducking weird from a UK perspective. For one the order they count votes is diffrent state to to state some are count postal's in the lead up, some after they close and others after they've counted the ballots they cast on the day. They also release the counting numbers periodically after they start counting, not just the final tally. There's also where they declare districts even though its a state wide poll. This lead to news stations declaring the result before the official result is even given this because somewhere like New York they can't pretty much be certain after a certain % of votes have been counted that its going to stay blue and no amount of additional counting will likely change that (like 80% of vote have to be for Trump and it isn't going to happen). It can lead to issue for example in 2000 some did call Florida for Gore which we know turned out to not be the case (its more complicated than that). So even though the count is not officially finished in a candidate will concede because they know its extremely statistically improbable they'd win. So its possible we'll know the result but the count is actually finished. Its really a case of it hinges a few really tight states (may see long portracted legal battle) or its pretty definitive for example Clinton needed lots of things to go her way in 2016 if she were to contest the count as she'd lost too many states but in 2000 it really did hinge on one wafer thin count. The question is how many results will Trump or Biden have to overturn for the result to be in their favour.

We actually get a similar effect in the UK counts are observed by a candidates nominated people (I've been one) and long term operatives know roughly what wards they have to win (or lose) by a rough % and if the numbers aren't looking good they know very quickly if they're likely to win or lose. For example back in 2017 Cheltenham was lost the LD's by 4.5% and was declared officially at roughly 6-7am but the LD observers had pretty much given up at about 11pm as they knew the numbers weren't where they needed to be.




God I hope the poll are right this time...

You have to remember that the States in the US are almost like separate countries in a federation (The United States). Just like other federations, things may be done differently from State to State. The media drives so much both here and there. 2-3 days is far too long for the average collection of hacks to go without the ability to call a black and white Conclusion. Hence early releases.Their checks and balances to a FPTP system with 2 elected chambers, both with power, although not as representative as PR (of any kind), makes ours look like a Feudal Baronial system.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

The level of pettiness of Trump is just astonishing...

In summary, the guy in charge of overseeing the protocols for doormen at the Whitehouse to open/close doors for officials etc was fired as one of Trumps lasts acts so when Biden had the inauguration there was nobody in place to organise for the doors to be opened... How ******* petty and pathetic can Trump get? It serves literally no purpose other than a childish attempt to make the next guy look bad. He's such a petulant brat.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

US House delivers article of impeachment against Donald Trump to Senate

Senate trial will be the first-ever of a former US president but the chances that Republicans will convict him are slim

www.theguardian.com

So delivered to the Senate and trial has to take place within 24 hours.

So two weeks of Farce where his defence and the GOP senators cry nothing to see here and there'll be a vote of 51 (Assuming all 50 Democrats plus Romney) vote to convict? 17 GOP senators isn't likely to happen.

Boost for Trump as 45 Republican senators vote to dismiss impeachment

Procedural objection fails but indicates stiff challenge of persuading 17 Republicans to vote for conviction

www.theguardian.com

Looks like at most 5 GOP senators could vote to convict.

Trump cries total vindication from the "witch hunt" and therefore will run again in 2024.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Even more accusations of Trumps underhanded attempts to get votes thrown out and overturn the election by using the DoJ as his personal tool.

He won't be found guilty but ******* it, it begs the question what you would need to to to be found guilty by the current Republicans...

 

[ncurd]

it begs the question what you would need to to to be found guilty by the current Republicans...

Be a democrat?

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Be a democrat?

Besides that one. It seems Trump wasn't lying when he claimed he could shoot someone and lose no voters, it seems he could also shoot someone and suffer no consequences whatsoever at the hands of the Republican senate. The most corrupt administration in American history for a long time.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Got to remember that this is impeachment trial is a political process rather than court of law. It's quite frankly a ridiculous mechanism to convict any President whether in office or out, where half the jurors are made up of his own party. It's an utter nonsense.

 

[ncurd]

Got to remember that this is impeachment trial is a political process rather than court of law. It's quite frankly a ridiculous mechanism to convict any President whether in office or out, where half the jurors are made up of his own party. It's an utter nonsense.

Its one of those things that make perfect sense if you look at the time it was written. They wanted a way to remove someone unlike a monarch with a formal mechanism to do so, should be noted there is nothing saying a President can't be taken to actual court of law. So it s political mechanism when they've acted in a way that isn't necessarily against the law or if they convicted of an actual crime. Also were talking about when they didn't have political parties when the impeachment process was put in place.

One of America's main issues is sorting out the constitution when its inadequate especially in more recent years.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Its one of those things that make perfect sense if you look at the time it was written. They wanted a way to remove someone unlike a monarch with a formal mechanism to do so, should be noted there is nothing saying a President can't be taken to actual court of law. So it s political mechanism when they've acted in a way that isn't necessarily against the law or if they convicted of an actual crime. Also were talking about when they didn't have political parties when the impeachment process was put in place.

One of America's main issues is sorting out the constitution when its inadequate especially in more recent years.

Yep, it's mechanism no longer fit for the purpose it was intended for in the modern political party machinery.

 

[Reiser99]

I'm still amazed anyone can defend filibustering. It's the most undemocratic thing ever.

 

[Which Tyler]

I'm still amazed anyone can defend filibustering. It's the most undemocratic thing ever.

With the possible exception of gerrymandering and mass disenfranchisement.
Oh, and not forgetting armed insurrection to overturn a democratic(ish) vote

 

[Reiser99]

With the possible exception of gerrymandering.
Oh, and not forgetting armed insurrection to overturn a democratic(ish) vote

True. Though technically gerrymandering still involves some kind of voting process. Filibustering stops any vote from happening and so is one person or small number of people making a unilateral decision for everyone.

Armed insurrection isn't part of the democratic process at all, despite what some republicans would have you believe.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

McConnell be like "I think Trump should be impeached and the trial should go ahead" - Votes against the trial going ahead.

The man is such a snake.

 

[Reiser99]

McConnell be like "I think Trump should be impeached and the trial should go ahead" - Votes against the trial going ahead.

The man is such a snake.

I think at least some Republicans are open in their views even if I completely disagree with them. McConnell is probably the most morally bankrupt Republican there is.