A Political Thread pt. 2

[McTallshort]

Bit more positive news (depending on your POV) from Ukraine. Looks like the Russian advance around Bakhmut has not only slowed down but looks to have been counter attacked in certain places. Their other attacks in other areas have also been unsuccessful, many with high casualties. There has been a rumour that Russia was building up for a massive offensive and much of the fighting around Bakhmut was in preparation for this, it might be that the fighting in the last month was this offensive and they may have shot their bolt already.

Fingers crossed that this is the case, I have been very negative about Ukraine's chances lately but there has certainly been a chance in the narrative with Ukrainian artillery performing very well.

Just wanted to add that I tend to use this Youtube channel a fair bit because although he is pro Ukraine, he does stay objective and is certainly not a cheerleader. He has also spent a bit of time in country and interviewed fighters on both sides.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Bit more positive news (depending on your POV) from Ukraine. Looks like the Russian advance around Bakhmut has not only slowed down but looks to have been counter attacked in certain places. Their other attacks in other areas have also been unsuccessful, many with high casualties. There has been a rumour that Russia was building up for a massive offensive and much of the fighting around Bakhmut was in preparation for this, it might be that the fighting in the last month was this offensive and they may have shot their bolt already.

Fingers crossed that this is the case, I have been very negative about Ukraine's chances lately but there has certainly been a chance in the narrative with Ukrainian artillery performing very well.

Just wanted to add that I tend to use this Youtube channel a fair bit because although he is pro Ukraine, he does stay objective and is certainly not a cheerleader. He has also spent a bit of time in country and interviewed fighters on both sides.

Yeah it's less catastrophic, but still very tense. It seems Putin got scared by the social media popularity of Wagner chief Prigozhin after they captured Soledar as:

- Putin almost immediately removed the Prigozhin supported head of the military operation and replaced him with the Putin loyalist who held the position at the start of the war (and created the Kyiv longstay carpark)
- Putin has now forbidden Wagner from recruiting prisoners (estimates today of 9k prisoner deaths, 20k estimated wounded - I think this was a big factor in their recent progress as those sighing up were told up front they will be **** if they dont accept an order to advance)
- Wagner now publicly appealing on social media to be supplied by the Russian military (suggestion of supplies being intentionally withheld to undermine Wagner).

The above seems to have undermined the Russian offensives, even though they are still making some gains. Prigozhin even suggesting Wagner, as a private entity, don't have to be in Ukraine. He is flying close to the sun making anything public like that that could be interpreted as unpatriotic.

Sounds like the US has advised against Ukraine tunnelling resources into a defence of Bahkmut as it will undermine any Ukrainian spring offensive.

Also, in the recent 'Putin vs the West' documentary we got an explanation of why Zelensky was in public denial about the prospect of war in the days before it. Apparently he knew it would happen but considered millions of panicking refugees clogging up the roads would hurt Ukranian defensive manouvers. So a white lie rather than a delusional optimist.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Yeah it's less catastrophic, but still very tense. It seems Putin got scared by the social media popularity of Wagner chief Prigozhin after they captured Soledar as:

- Putin almost immediately removed the Prigozhin supported head of the military operation and replaced him with the Putin loyalist who held the position at the start of the war (and created the Kyiv longstay carpark)
- Putin has now forbidden Wagner from recruiting prisoners (estimates today of 9k prisoner deaths, 20k estimated wounded - I think this was a big factor in their recent progress as those sighing up were told up front they will be **** if they dont accept an order to advance)
- Wagner now publicly appealing on social media to be supplied by the Russian military (suggestion of supplies being intentionally withheld to undermine Wagner).

The above seems to have undermined the Russian offensives, even though they are still making some gains. Prigozhin even suggesting Wagner, as a private entity, don't have to be in Ukraine. He is flying close to the sun making anything public like that that could be interpreted as unpatriotic.

Sounds like the US has advised against Ukraine tunnelling resources into a defence of Bahkmut as it will undermine any Ukrainian spring offensive.

Also, in the recent 'Putin vs the West' documentary we got an explanation of why Zelensky was in public denial about the prospect of war in the days before it. Apparently he knew it would happen but considered millions of panicking refugees clogging up the roads would hurt Ukranian defensive manouvers. So a white lie rather than a delusional optimist.

Putin is in a funny situation, he needs military victory as defeat in Ukraine could seriously harm him but his ego will not allow anyone else to appear to be masterminding any victory, so he needs to undermine anyone who has any success. Very much like another well known wartime Soviet leader.

 

[McTallshort]

Putin is in a funny situation, he needs military victory as defeat in Ukraine could seriously harm him but his ego will not allow anyone else to appear to be masterminding any victory, so he needs to undermine anyone who has any success. Very much like another well known wartime Soviet leader.

Some truth in that. He just "Shuffled" the military leader who stabilised the front and managed to pull the army back from Kherson and replaced him with the useless idiot who had caused the front to collapse in the first place. Like you said Stalin was the same. Made the battle of Berlin a competition between Georgy Zhukov and Konstantin Rokossovsky, both threw away 1000s of Soviet lives trying to beat the other.

 

[Reiser99]

Isn't that by not taking Ukraine quickly, Putin has seriously undermined his image as a strong leader. He then has competing factions within his government who in reality could enact a leadership change if they were pushed. He needs to keep up his image as a strong leader, but as you said, he can't let others take the credit. TBH I think the failure to win in Ukraine quickly is the beginning of the end for Putin unless they conquer the whole of Ukraine and declare complete victory. May not happen soon, but he's definitely open the door a jar.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I was watching a documentary about the human waves of soldiers in Stalins messy attack on Finland in WWII after Stalin had liquidated large chunks of his officer class. Russia 'perfected' the human wave tactic in WW1 with an estimated 1/3+ of the Tsars soldiers not even having a gun and being told to pick up ones from the fallen. Now they throw their rapists, murderers and poorly trained mobilised soldiers headlong into the meat grinder. Nobody does repetitive, self-destructive idiocy through the decades quite like Russia. It's all everybody else's fault of course.

 

[McTallshort]

Isn't that by not taking Ukraine quickly, Putin has seriously undermined his image as a strong leader. He then has competing factions within his government who in reality could enact a leadership change if they were pushed. He needs to keep up his image as a strong leader, but as you said, he can't let others take the credit. TBH I think the failure to win in Ukraine quickly is the beginning of the end for Putin unless they conquer the whole of Ukraine and declare complete victory. May not happen soon, but he's definitely open the door a jar.

He took a gamble but in his mind it wasn't a gamble because in his head Ukraine didn't really exist and his Generals didn't have the balls to say "boss we cannot invade Ukraine because we spent all the tyre and ammo money on coke, mansions and hookers"

He thought 3 days it's been nearly a year. As long as the elite are protected he will just keep throwing bodies at the problem until it goes away.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

He took a gamble but in his mind it wasn't a gamble because in his head Ukraine didn't really exist and his Generals didn't have the balls to say "boss we cannot invade Ukraine because we spent all the tyre and ammo money on coke, mansions and hookers"

He thought 3 days it's been nearly a year. As long as the elite are protected he will just keep throwing bodies at the problem until it goes away.

That's where you have been misled by western propaganda, what Russia actually aimed for was 3 special military days, they are like normal days but just 365 times longer. That or they simply didn't specify which planet's days they were referring to. 3 Venus days are still on course for success.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Excellent news. Just look at the graph on this.

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www.ft.com

Looks like there will be 18 months breathing space to transition to liquid gas (which can be shipped from anywhere) and improved renewable energy generation before there is any renewed risk of gas shortages or insane prices.

Bah, link possibly won't work. Another take.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/17/energy/europe-gas-price-18-month-low/index.html

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Excellent news. Just look at the graph on this.

Subscribe to read

www.ft.com

Looks like there will be 18 months breathing space to transition to liquid gas (which can be shipped from anywhere) and improved renewable energy generation before there is any renewed risk of gas shortages or insane prices.

Bah, link possibly won't work. Another take.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/17/energy/europe-gas-price-18-month-low/index.html

And yet you can bet the price of gas to consumers in this country will barely budge. Once companies realise just how much fleecing they can get away with, they never go back unless the cost of continuing the fleecing becomes more than they gain from it.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

And yet you can bet the price of gas to consumers in this country will barely budge. Once companies realise just how much fleeing they can get away with, they never go back unless the cost of continuing the fleecing becomes more than they gain from it.

Yep,
Took 10 steps forward then will act like they're saints for taking 1 step back

 

[The_Apostle]

Doesn't anybody find it odd how all the political leaders that a r e against Russia, are NATO? And you only know what they want you to hear? Interesting.

 

[Reiser99]

Doesn't anybody find it odd how all the political leaders that a r e against Russia, are NATO? And you only know what they want you to hear? Interesting.

It's propaganda I say! Russia are the most kind and benevolent liberators who are saving the Ukrainian people by killing them, bombing them, torturing them, murdering them, starving them, raping them...

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Doesn't anybody find it odd how all the political leaders that a r e against Russia, are NATO? And you only know what they want you to hear? Interesting.

Doesn't anybody find it odd how all the politician leaders that are in favour of Russia are dictatorships? And you only know what they want you to hear? Interesting.

 

[McTallshort]

Doesn't anybody find it odd how all the political leaders that a r e against Russia, are NATO? And you only know what they want you to hear? Interesting.

Why who's with Russia?

 

[The_Apostle]

I'm not for anybody, but get real man. Both countries are corrupt as can be, and both deserve everything they get.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

It's OK to quietly not have an opinion you know?

 

[ncurd]

I'm not for anybody, but get real man. Both countries are corrupt as can be, and both deserve everything they get.

Yeah the administrator at work really deserved to have to flee her home country with her son.

Like c'mon this is one aggressor attacking a country that did nothing to provoke it. Most wars are more complex this one is nit.

 

[Which Tyler]

Why who's with Russia?

Not even Belarus; though there's a few countries who are more interested in getting cheap gas from Russia than they are in taking sides in something that's separated from them by an ocean or two.

 

[McTallshort]

I'm not for anybody, but get real man. Both countries are corrupt as can be, and both deserve everything they get.

What a ********