A Political Thread pt. 2

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

For all the talk of Biden whiffing this a few days ago he's going to have massive poplar vote margin at the end and finish on 306 electoral votes isn't miles of most predictions (and thats mainly from not winning Florida)

Wasn't it widely believed the dems would walk this pre election?

 

[ncurd]

Wasn't it widely believed the dems would walk this pre election?

This is 'walking it'....its just taking forever to count the damn votes. There's a difference between comfortably winning and it being a blowout (margin 330+).

For example in PA, CNN are quite bullish that Biden will comfortably win it.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

This is 'walking it'....its just taking forever to count the damn votes. There's a difference between comfortably winning and it being a blowout (margin 330+).

For example in PA, CNN are quite bullish that Biden will comfortably win it.

Nooooo this is not walking it.

It was meant to be a margin of between 8-14 percent according to most polls. This is going to be about 2 at a push...

The democrats have royally f'd this election up and they mustn't let winning paper over the cracks... This is a lose lose for everyone rn

 

[BiggusLaddus]

The Groan have dug up one of Trump's old tweets. Clearly this was his manta.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Nooooo this is not walking it.

It was meant to be a margin of between 8-14 percent according to most polls. This is going to be about 2 at a push...

The democrats have royally f'd this election up and they mustn't let winning paper over the cracks... This is a lose lose for everyone rn

isn't the Democrats that have ducked up but yet again the pollsters have not got it right. But again very difficult to always reflect voter intention and picking up those who don't usually vote but turned up and voted last minute. Polling isn't an exact science and never has been. It only captures a snapshot in a moment in time and then they average them. Read what you will into them.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

Wasn't it widely believed the dems would walk this pre election?

Only the polls suggested that, everyone I talked too was aware of things like the "shy republican", those that are hard to poll/model

 

[ncurd]

Yup you comparing the result to what the polls said would happen (a blowout) but I'm looking at a list of states and the only one wrongly called was Florida. Most felt what the polls were saying would be best case scenario for Biden.

There also the fact the margin of error was +-6%. This is within 4% (you have to remember for every 1% Biden looses Trump gets 1% more).

But again there a difference between the actual result and if it's a comfortable win and the polls saying he'd smash it.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Only the polls suggested that, everyone I talked too was aware of things like the "shy republican", those that are hard to poll/model

Doubly bad this time, the "shy Republican" has morphed into the "you are part of the system" Republican and so actively opposed to engaging in polls, especially after having themselves feel vindicated about them in 2016. Couple that with the tendency of Democrats and the left in general to say they will take action but then not actually do it and the inherent effects of voter suppression and gerrymandering, it all works to skew polls quite badly and all difficult to quantify.

The interesting thing will be if the polls were far off the mark when it came to vote %. They were accurate in predicting the % of the vote last time, just not the outcome. If we have yet another case of them getting the % accurate but getting the result off, that strongly indicates the influence of gerrymandering.

 

[ncurd]

the other thin on polls it looks like Biden was actually quite accurate



Like ragerancher said it looks like people are unwilling to admit they'd vote Trump it looks like most models need to treat undecided's as Republicans (if we have a sane candidate next time that might happen)

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Personally I think the dems still massively underperformed and if they feel like they have done well in this and go into 2024 with a similar plan they will lose.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Personally I think the dems still massively underperformed and if they feel like they have done well in this and go into 2024 with a similar plan they will lose.

And the midterms could be a messy situation for them.

The fact that the only vote share where trump failed to grow looks like it was white men says a lot.

 

[ncurd]

And the midterms could be a messy situation for them.

The fact that the only vote share where trump failed to grow looks like it was white men says a lot.

Need to know id that % of population or % of vote. It matters because of far higher turnout.

However on currently numbers Biden has also done the same (unless white men drastically left Trump) and they've not finished counting the mail in stuff.

The real difference is people not voting as much for other candidates so you would expect both candidates to increase in demographics. To really work it out you need to take out the the other candidates from 2016 then work out the demographics %, then you have to do the same for this year. Proper analysis of data is more complex than saying 1% more latino voter for Trump its make a nice headline but you to drive down and understand how that figure was calculated.

 

[Which Tyler]

Wasn't it widely believed the dems would walk this pre election?

It was supposed be either nail bitingly close, or a walk-in

It was meant to be a margin of between 8-14 percent according to most polls. This is going to be about 2 at a push...

That's a claim I've only seen since voting started. Pre-election the poll aggregators like 538 were saying 5-7% for Biden.
There was the odd poll here and there going as high as 12-14% but there was also the odd poll here and there saying Trump by 3%

Yes, the polls were wrong, for multifarious reasons, but let's not start from a position that's double what the polls were actually saying

Mostly people who were "unlikely to vote" actually voting, and other simply lying to the pollsters either because they enjoy trolling and "owning the libs" or simply embarrassed to admit that they vote for trump. Of course, there's also the record turnout - which increases the margin of error.

Oh, and the there's Florida...

 

[Bada-Bing!]

 

[ncurd]

Biden now officially in the lead in PA

 

[Which Tyler]

Biden now officially in the lead in PA

TY.
I've been locked off the news channels, so relying on written updates.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Lead by 5,587 in PA according to Sky news.

Trump reportedly still won't concede regardless according to CNN.

 

[ncurd]

TY.
I've been locked off the news channels, so relying on written updates.

Its 5.5k, obviously they are expecting that to grow.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

wonder when AP will start calling it.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Don't forget AP has called Arizona two days ago and they're still Counting.