[2021 Six Nations] France vs Wales (20/03/2021)

[g6mcg]

France managed to lose vs England and didn't put Ireland away, pretty easy to see them losing to Wales. They've looked good but not sure they've been that impressive as a whole.

 

[ncurd]

France managed to lose vs England and didn't put Ireland away, pretty easy to see them losing to Wales. They've looked good but not sure they've been that impressive as a whole.

The only factor not mentioned in those two games is France were away whereas this time they are at home. Even without crowds I think people have show statistically it is still a factor.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

FTFY

I have no idea how Wales win it without the assistance of either of those two, even if it is just France playing so much worse than they have in previous 4 rounds. England had no business beating them and still had to produce a far better performance than we've seen from Wales so far.

They've been very lucky to this stage no doubt, individual errors from opposition players and the ref in the England game have increased their odds massively but they've still done some good stuff and have an underrated backline apart from Jon Davies who is absolutely useless with the ball in hand these days. I think if POM hadn't been himself they'd be 1/4 but they still easily could be despite that and have done enough.

They'll try to slow the game down, make it as rigid as possible and frustrate France into making mistakes. It's hard to do, England tried and failed and got there in the end because Galthie let his team get gassed instead of using the bench. Ireland tried the same but couldn't score to save ourselves. Wales have been more dangerous in and around the fringes and the 10/12 channel than either of those teams though and can create better chances out wide as a result (they just tend to mess a lot of them up because JD is there) so if they succeed up front they'll do a job.

Now getting the better of France's pack and putting Fickou under pressure are both far easier said than done, easily two of the most underrated things in this championship, and they haven't faced anything like it yet. I don't think England's starting pack are at the level of France's this year*, and they definitely weren't in Cardiff, and they barely got the better of a 7 man Irish pack. But a Welsh side with the wind in their sails v a deflated French one could easily pull off an upset. Had France closed the game out on Saturday I'd be giving them little more than a puncher's chance but the stars appear to be aligning... Again.

*Quote me in the Eng Fra thread if anyone wants to discuss that, could see it rustling feathers.

 

[Jakedood]

Any frenchman > Justin Tipuric

 

[FrenchFan]

Bonus win for me, or nothing.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Any frenchman > Justin Tipuric

Fun stat. Tom Curry has missed one tackle for every 6 he's attempted.

 

[Jakedood]

Fun stat. Tom Curry has missed one tackle for every 6 he's attempted.

Did Justin tell you this from his front row seat, you know when he was hiding out on the wing?

 

[Welsh Exile]

Did Justin tell you this from his front row seat, you know when he was hiding out on the wing?

Yeah, he also told me he's made more tackles than any other player in the 6N. That's some top drawer hiding.

 

[Jakedood]

Just checked that out, how are the top 4 tacklers all welsh? There's got to be something strange about that, but i cant think what it is

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Fun stat. Tom Curry has missed one tackle for every 6 he's attempted.

Yet is still significantly better at every aspect of the game,

Embarrassing to be a Tipuric stan tbh - proof that stats only tell you half the story

 

[Welsh Exile]

Yet is still significantly better at every aspect of the game,

Embarrassing to be a Tipuric stan tbh - proof that stats only tell you half the story

So no apology then? Didn't think so.

For what it's worth I think Curry is a world class player.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

So no apology then? Didn't think so.

 

[ncurd]

They've been very lucky to this stage no doubt, individual errors from opposition players and the ref in the England game have increased their odds massively but they've still done some good stuff and have an underrated backline apart from Jon Davies who is absolutely useless with the ball in hand these days. I think if POM hadn't been himself they'd be 1/4 but they still easily could be despite that and have done enough.

They'll try to slow the game down, make it as rigid as possible and frustrate France into making mistakes. It's hard to do, England tried and failed and got there in the end because Galthie let his team get gassed instead of using the bench. Ireland tried the same but couldn't score to save ourselves. Wales have been more dangerous in and around the fringes and the 10/12 channel than either of those teams though and can create better chances out wide as a result (they just tend to mess a lot of them up because JD is there) so if they succeed up front they'll do a job.

Now getting the better of France's pack and putting Fickou under pressure are both far easier said than done, easily two of the most underrated things in this championship, and they haven't faced anything like it yet. I don't think England's starting pack are at the level of France's this year*, and they definitely weren't in Cardiff, and they barely got the better of a 7 man Irish pack. But a Welsh side with the wind in their sails v a deflated French one could easily pull off an upset. Had France closed the game out on Saturday I'd be giving them little more than a puncher's chance but the stars appear to be aligning... Again.

The key to beating France currently is possession/territory and staving them of it, one of telling factors in the 2nd half was England stopped France getting the 22 at all.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Such a shame that Dan Leavy is ****** by injuries, this Tipuric v the rest argument would merely be squabbling for a distant second best 7 in Europe.

 

[Welsh Exile]

I just thought that as a staff member (or just as a decent human being) you might think it would be the right thing to do. I know I would but each to their own.

Maybe I should go around calling into question peoples character with baseless accusations. I wonder if you'd tolerate that as a staff member on this here board.

 

[ForumWhore]

Wales with ease. They'll rattle France early on and control the game. Wales are 6N specialists somehow.

 

[Jakedood]

The key to beating France currently is possession/territory and staving them of it, one of telling factors in the 2nd half was England stopped France getting the 22 at all.

See another thing is, I dont have exact possession stats in front of me, but looking at welsh tackle numbers, and also how few passes their scrummie has made compared to every other team, I'd guess that they may not be playing the possession based game?
One thing is if you give France ball, eventually they'll create space, and they can do it off first phase and open play. This may not be a great matchup, Wales may grind out the win, but i dont think I'd expect them to wholly outplay France, it'll need to be nitty gritty i'd surmise

 

[Welsh Exile]

Wales with ease. They'll rattle France early on and control the game. Wales are 6N specialists somehow.

Somehow? We have some very good rugby players. World class even. Hard for some of you to believe I know.

 

[ForumWhore]

Somehow? We have some very good rugby players. World class even. Hard for some of you to believe I know.

I know, like all teams. But Wales are as likely to lose to Sweden as they are to win the 6N. It's one of sports greatest anomalies.

 

[Welsh Exile]

I know, like all teams. But Wales are as likely to lose to Sweden as they are to win the 6N. It's one of sports greatest anomalies.

Going for a 2nd grand slam in 3 years is an anomaly is it?

Winning 4 since 2005 is very respectable in my humble opinion and can't be written off as an anomaly but I suspect you know this.