[2018 November Tests] Ireland vs New Zealand (17/11/18)

[Hanley!]

Best is 36 and hasn't impressed me overly for several years outside of lineout

I'm struggling to remember a time when Best was decent at the lineout. His work at the breakdown and around the park made up for it for a long time, but his throwing has never been good.

 

[Iron Lion Zion]

Everybody thinks the All Blacks are in a slump but they do this every year before the world cup. This is when they can lose games. They hold back the majority of their cards and play a strange form of rugby where they try bizarre and low reward plays over and over again like against the Springboks twice this year and against England. The All Blacks B team that played Japan played a more traditional style of rugby and did not experiment with their play structures and they blew Japan off the park.

With the world cup on the horizon, this game like the game against England reflects Irelands best chance to get another win over the All Blacks because the All Blacks are going to be less ruthless as they build towards the world cup where they will be aiming to peak.

Now WARNING TO IRELAND!!!!

If the All Blacks actually treat this like a World Cup Final, tighten up on experimenting and play a more structured style of football then I can see them beating Ireland by 15 -25 points. If you think the All Blacks are in a slump you are being fooled. They are experimenting and holding cards back purposely. Think about it, to win the world cup you will need to beat the All Blacks, so no way will the All Blacks reveal their cards now and let you plan almost a year ahead to playing them.

I expect this to be the test of the year and the winner to run out 25 - 22 either way. But if Ireland does not match the All Blacks for 80mins and the All Blacks decide to tighten up their game then 34 - 12 would not surprise me to the All Blacks.

REMEMBER I TOLD YOU SO!

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

How would that affect Jonathan Davies?

He wouldn't get to watch Garry in green like the rest of us!

 

[Steeler]

Yeah I gotta admit, I'm not too intimidated by that Irish line -up. But they are at home and have the fire in the ole belly, so that's at least 10-15 points of adrenline and fight.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

ALB got injured this past year right? He looked like he'd be a sensation 2 years ago but seems to have lost form. Delighted to see D-Mac getting another shot at fullback in a big contest. Kind of begs the question why he spent most of the SR season at flyhalf - although maybe that was the condition of him getting this chance.

For comedy value I'd love ABs to lose due to a missed penalty by BB when the infinitely superior goal kicker D-Mac is left as a passenger. It's the only way the penny will drop for Hansen. I can't think of any other side where the best goal kicker is denied the opportunity to kick for the posts. It does my head in!

Alb didn't get injured, just went out of favour . Form slumped a bit but he still does a lot of good stuff that doesn't get due acknowledgement. There was a real reluctance amongst nz commentators to say anything good about him during super rugby because they were obsessively desperate to promote his competitor , jack goodhue.
And with little Mac at fullback goodhue is a decent fit for centre. I'd still prefer alb, but tis whatta tis

As for little Mac , he was asked to play first five because they wanted him to play the bench role that Barrett used to play. But now they see a need for more playmaking ability so want him there with smith shifting to wing, also bringing the opportunity for one of our form players in Richie Mo'unga to have a bench position, coming in and closing out games with his cool head.

In nz it's also really hard to keep your third best in a given position but with injuries you will often need them, so it made sense to develop utility factor within the core group . They did the same with Ben Smith a few years back when he played centre on the end of year tour while Conrad Smith was having a break.

 

[Leinster Fan]

I'd put a decent amount of money on Toner hitting the most rucks when he's on the pitch, and along with running him the lineout obviously I don't think he's a weak point at all in the team. Him and O'Mahony are two of the best lineout players in the world which we need tbh with Best's throwing being what it is and Brodie Retallick in the opposition. Even if Toner isn't at his physical peak right now, (and I wouldn't be surprised if he is but you can't say for sure unless you've got the inside info) there's no doubting he's at his peak at a player right now. His impact in the loose has increased a lot, his handling is vastly improved (admittedly from a low baseline but it's not rare to see him playing passes that are genuinely difficult anymore, that was unimaginable 5-10 years ago when he was a banker for at least one knockon a game). All our locks look way better when they're playing beside him and he makes everyone else's job on the pack so much easier. One of the most underrated players in the world IMO.

That ABs team is easily the weakest of any that have turned up in Dublin in recent memory, they're still really really good but the 2015 team would beat them handily (you could argue they'd beat almost any team ever handily though in fairness). I'd take our props and flankers without hesitation and even if they're obviously better in the backs, (if we could take those players the only Irish players left would be Sexton and Ringrose) I think our defence should be good enough to deal reduce the impact that their obviously superior back three will have to a manageable level. I think they're good for a close win though. I'd predict something like a 25-23 win for the men in black.

 

[Steeler]

ALB had that good run of form in 2016, he's been alright since then, but quiet in Super rugby and has misses some big tackles for the AB's since then and i can see why he was dropped, Goodhue was always going to become the consistent first choicer i reckon, just an all round more solid footy player with a good head on his shoulders.
from what I hear Hansen doesn't like how quiet Laumape and ALB are vocally as well.

 

[Steeler]

That ABs team is easily the weakest of any that have turned up in Dublin in recent memory

yeah, thankfully it's better than the Lions final test team tho

and the class of 15' will probably go down as the greatest team ever, can't see another team as experienced and talented and capped as that ever forming again for a long long time

Sam Cane and Moody will be sorely missed this weekend

also Matt Todd is going to surprise a lot of NH supporters and viewers, he's one of those players that wouldve been a massive star over there had he gone to the NH already

 

[Bean]

I'd put a decent amount of money on Toner hitting the most rucks when he's on the pitch, and along with running him the lineout obviously I don't think he's a weak point at all in the team. Him and O'Mahony are two of the best lineout players in the world which we need tbh with Best's throwing being what it is and Brodie Retallick in the opposition. Even if Toner isn't at his physical peak right now, (and I wouldn't be surprised if he is but you can't say for sure unless you've got the inside info) there's no doubting he's at his peak at a player right now. His impact in the loose has increased a lot, his handling is vastly improved (admittedly from a low baseline but it's not rare to see him playing passes that are genuinely difficult anymore, that was unimaginable 5-10 years ago when he was a banker for at least one knockon a game). All our locks look way better when they're playing beside him and he makes everyone else's job on the pack so much easier. One of the most underrated players in the world IMO.

That ABs team is easily the weakest of any that have turned up in Dublin in recent memory, they're still really really good but the 2015 team would beat them handily (you could argue they'd beat almost any team ever handily though in fairness). I'd take our props and flankers without hesitation and even if they're obviously better in the backs, (if we could take those players the only Irish players left would be Sexton and Ringrose) I think our defence should be good enough to deal reduce the impact that their obviously superior back three will have to a manageable level. I think they're good for a close win though. I'd predict something like a 25-23 win for the men in black.

I've come from the future, it was a great game. Final score 27-31 to the All Blacks after trailing 15-10 at half time.

 

[Leinster Fan]

I've come from the future, it was a great game. Final score 27-31 to the All Blacks after trailing 15-10 at half time.

The future seems about right.

 

[Bean]

The future seems about right.

Also Conor McGregor gets hit by a bus after the game and everyone just starts clapping.

 

[SomeOke]

Everybody thinks the All Blacks are in a slump but they do this every year before the world cup. This is when they can lose games. They hold back the majority of their cards and play a strange form of rugby where they try bizarre and low reward plays over and over again like against the Springboks twice this year and against England. The All Blacks B team that played Japan played a more traditional style of rugby and did not experiment with their play structures and they blew Japan off the park.

With the world cup on the horizon, this game like the game against England reflects Irelands best chance to get another win over the All Blacks because the All Blacks are going to be less ruthless as they build towards the world cup where they will be aiming to peak.

Now WARNING TO IRELAND!!!!

If the All Blacks actually treat this like a World Cup Final, tighten up on experimenting and play a more structured style of football then I can see them beating Ireland by 15 -25 points. If you think the All Blacks are in a slump you are being fooled. They are experimenting and holding cards back purposely. Think about it, to win the world cup you will need to beat the All Blacks, so no way will the All Blacks reveal their cards now and let you plan almost a year ahead to playing them.

I expect this to be the test of the year and the winner to run out 25 - 22 either way. But if Ireland does not match the All Blacks for 80mins and the All Blacks decide to tighten up their game then 34 - 12 would not surprise me to the All Blacks.

REMEMBER I TOLD YOU SO!

Why do I have a sudden urge to support the Irish.

 

[corny]

I saw McKenzies name and i immediately thought of the game against England this year. It took Sexton just a couple of minutes to land a contestable on Watson at fullback because they felt they could get at him. It lead to a try. Kearney and Earls will really fancy their chances against McKenzie in the air and Sextons ability to land it on the money is unparalleled in the game. An obvious point of attack for us tbh.

Toner deserves his start and Henderson deserves his bench spot. There's a definite Munster bias involved with the calls for Beirne to replace either. Fine player but completely unproven at this level and its not like Henderson or Toner are weaknesses. Hendersons grunt of the bench could be the difference for us in the game.

 

[munstermuffin]

I saw McKenzies name and i immediately thought of the game against England this year. It took Sexton just a couple of minutes to land a contestable on Watson at fullback because they felt they could get at him. It lead to a try. Kearney and Earls will really fancy their chances against McKenzie in the air and Sextons ability to land it on the money is unparalleled in the game. An obvious point of attack for us tbh.

Toner deserves his start and Henderson deserves his bench spot. There's a definite Munster bias involved with the calls for Beirne to replace either. Fine player but completely unproven at this level and its not like Henderson or Toner are weaknesses. Hendersons grunt of the bench could be the difference for us in the game.

I think bottom part of that is make believe.
I think the calls for Beirne to play have came from all over and argument was due to Henderson being so poor last week. And nobody was screaming for either to be dropped. Main saying was he was unlucky.
2nd row selection won't be the costing or winning of the game.
And like any player if Henderson comes on and is great it will be he is vindicated and if he's awful he'll be slammed after back of last weeks performance

Add in if you're unproven then there only 1 way to prove it is by playing. Same as Larmour or any lad like that.

Leavy is out. Van Der Flier starts and Jordu the barbarian to the bench

 

[Leinster Fan]

I think bottom part of that is make believe.
I think the calls for Beirne to play have came from all over and argument was due to Henderson being so poor last week. And nobody was screaming for either to be dropped. Main saying was he was unlucky.
2nd row selection won't be the costing or winning of the game.
And like any player if Henderson comes on and is great it will be he is vindicated and if he's awful he'll be slammed after back of last weeks performance

Add in if you're unproven then there only 1 way to prove it is by playing. Same as Larmour or any lad like that.

Leavy is out. Van Der Flier starts and Jordu the barbarian to the bench

Leavy out isn't the end of the world, sure he was great last week but I think Josh van der Flier is more suited to this game anyway. They're different players but quality wise they're very close (and very good). Jordi Murphy is the perfect backrow cover in any event and is always great for Ireland.

On Beirne he's unlucky not to be involved against either Argentina or the All Blacks but it's not like the players picked ahead of him aren't at a similar level and he's unproven at this level. Unless he's forced to Joe was never going to throw in an untested player against the ABs especially given that the lineout is probably his weakest point. There's an argument that he should have played last week but with worries about the lineout we were never going in without Toner in the 23 and Ryan/Henderson were never being left out against a Tier 1 team either. Brilliant player but 4th choice right now. Dropping Henderson from the 23 based on one poor game would have been an overreaction to an excellent player, who let's remember is Lion.

 

[munstermuffin]

Leavy out isn't the end of the world, sure he was great last week but I think Josh van der Flier is more suited to this game anyway. They're different players but quality wise they're very close (and very good). Jordi Murphy is the perfect backrow cover in any event and is always great for Ireland.

On Beirne he's unlucky not to be involved against either Argentina or the All Blacks but it's not like the players picked ahead of him aren't at a similar level and he's unproven at this level. Unless he's forced to Joe was never going to throw in an untested player against the ABs especially given that the lineout is probably his weakest point. There's an argument that he should have played last week but with worries about the lineout we were never going in without Toner in the 23 and Ryan/Henderson were never being left out against a Tier 1 team either. Brilliant player but 4th choice right now. Dropping Henderson from the 23 based on one poor game would have been an overreaction to an excellent player, who let's remember is Lion.

On top bit exactly. Many would argue Van Der Flier should have started. And Jordi has probably been ublucky to have not had a game yet. So as you say not huge disruption. Factor in Leavy hasn't trained all week so this unit has trained all week too.

On Beirne. That is my point being echoed. I'd disagree that he is 4th choice on ability but on selection don't think anyone was saying it a disgrace or goving out. More noting again he is unlucky. On Henderson I agree 1 game shouldn't cost him. But it has cost others in the past. And he isn't in good form but 100% capable of producing a big game.

My bigger fear is hooker tomorrow.

 

[Hanley!]

There's a definite Munster bias involved with the calls for Beirne to replace either. Fine player but completely unproven at this level and its not like Henderson or Toner are weaknesses. Hendersons grunt of the bench could be the difference for us in the game.

I don't think that's fair. Calling Beirne a fine player is an understatement, and while he might be "unproven at this level", he can't prove himself at international level without being picked. Meanwhile, he's arguably been the best player in European club competition for the last two years with the Scarlets and is still on top form now. He was one of the stand out performers in the Italy match and scored two tries.

He's done literally everything he could have done to get picked. He's played well and has made no errors. He's massively unlucky to not be in the 23.

That's not to say that it's ridiculous that he hasn't been selected, as we have good depth in the second row right now and no current injuries. In the end, Schmidt is just showing faith in the guys he usually picks, which is consistent with Marmion being picked as the starting 9. There's nothing wrong with that. But equally, if he had picked Beirne, I don't think there could have been too many complaints. In my mind, he's a better all round player than Toner and on better form than Henderson at least. If I was picking the team, he probably would have been on the bench for the All Blacks game. I think he could be pushing for the starting 15 come the World Cup, along with Ryan, but for this game it makes sense to give Toner a start to steady the lineout.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I don't think that's fair. Calling Beirne a fine player is an understatement, and while he might be "unproven at this level", he can't prove himself at international level without being picked. Meanwhile, he's arguably been the best player in European club competition for the last two years with the Scarlets and is still on top form now. He was one of the stand out performers in the Italy match and scored two tries.

He's done literally everything he could have done to get picked. He's played well and has made no errors. He's massively unlucky to not be in the 23.

That's not to say that it's ridiculous that he hasn't been selected, as we have good depth in the second row right now and no current injuries. In the end, Schmidt is just showing faith in the guys he usually picks, which is consistent with Marmion being picked as the starting 9. There's nothing wrong with that. But equally, if he had picked Beirne, I don't think there could have been too many complaints. In my mind, he's a better all round player than Toner and on better form than Henderson at least. If I was picking the team, he probably would have been on the bench for the All Blacks game. I think he could be pushing for the starting 15 come the World Cup, along with Ryan, but for this game it makes sense to give Toner a start to steady the lineout.

"Better all round player" yes, better second row, not even close. Beirne is probably our 4th best lock and 3rd or 4th best 6 (Behind POM, possibly Ruddock and Stander) we have. I don't think he has much reason to feel unlucky to be honest, he's undoubtedly an international class player but there's so much traffic in his way that he really has to go above and beyond what's expected to crack the 23 or 15.

 

[munstermuffin]

"Better all round player" yes, better second row, not even close. Beirne is probably our 4th best lock and 3rd or 4th best 6 (Behind POM, possibly Ruddock and Stander) we have. I don't think he has much reason to feel unlucky to be honest, he's undoubtedly an international class player but there's so much traffic in his way that he really has to go above and beyond what's expected to crack the 23 or 15.

But isnt that same story so for Van Der Flier. A top top player but without injuries so can't feel unlucky as he is 3rd choice 7 and Rhys Ruddock who is behind Stander Leavy and POM as a 6 and possibly Jordi too

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

But isnt that same story so for Van Der Flier. A top top player but without injuries so can't feel unlucky as he is 3rd choice 7 and Rhys Ruddock who is behind Stander Leavy and POM as a 6 and possibly Jordi too

You've lost me.