[2018 November Tests] Ireland vs New Zealand (17/11/18)

[profitius]

I think the best result for Ireland wi pl be a narrow loss.

Jaysus MM. Is losing the new winning?  Steve Hansen's new master plan is for Barrett to throw a few late intercepts. The NZ defence parts as a Moses-like Rory Best scores from inside his own half.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Jaysus MM. Is losing the new winning?  Steve Hansen's new master plan is for Barrett to throw a few late intercepts. The NZ defence parts as a Moses-like Rory Best scores from inside his own half.

ahh, so taht's how you respond without coming across antagonistically.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Why wouldn't we?
NH sides routinely beat Argentina home and away with B/C level sides.

I'd say Argentina are significantly worse than they used to be, considering they were 3rd in the world a few world cups ago and now get white washed at home.

yep, argentina have improved tehir attack, but otehr areas such as the scrum have gotten far far worse. There seems to have been a memo to southern hemisphere commentators and media to tell everyone that argentina have improved. we hear it every year, but the results don't prove it.

 

[Steeler]

I honestly hope we smash the green buggers

 

[munstermuffin]

Jaysus MM. Is losing the new winning?  Steve Hansen's new master plan is for Barrett to throw a few late intercepts. The NZ defence parts as a Moses-like Rory Best scores from inside his own half.

Don't get me wrong, I hope we win. And believe we can win. But just the Irish mentality (not as a rugby team but a nation in general) is to struggle when on top of the pile.

Even without Henshaw and Murray I believe we can win but just saying it means we would potentially struggle then with the extra over hype.

The big worry now for Schmidt is it seems centre. Aki struggling with an ankle, Ringrose with his hip and Henshaw gone.
2 fears I have here. That we loose 1 of Aki or Ringrose and it seriously dents us.
Also if Addison and Aki have to play it will be their 3rd week straight and factor in travelling to Chicago.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

We've been expected to win every game we've played since beating England in 2017, we only lost once in that period. Even with injuries there is still an expectation among many in this country of a win on Saturday. If we win nothing will change in that squad, our grand slam in 2019 will be decided in Cardiff, the QF and then final, if we win, will still be the pivotal RWC games. This current Ireland team shows no signs of the inconsistency that has burdened teams that came before it.

Forget the world cup for one week, this fixture is about as big as you can get outside of one.

 

[munstermuffin]

We've been expected to win every game we've played since beating England in 2017, we only lost once in that period. Even with injuries there is still an expectation among many in this country of a win on Saturday. If we win nothing will change in that squad, our grand slam in 2019 will be decided in Cardiff, the QF and then final, if we win, will still be the pivotal RWC games. This current Ireland team shows no signs of the inconsistency that has burdened teams that came before it.

Forget the world cup for one week, this fixture is about as big as you can get outside of one.

I don't disagree with any of that. And as I said this is not a reflection of this team or even rugby teams in general. Just an Irish overall thing.

Regards the RWC I do think regardless we will have been better served then because of the injuries now.

But on Saturday I do have worries.
1. Best. A legend but he is off form, battling age and well set-piece has crashed a bit.
2. 2nd rows. Do they drop Henderson out of the XV or 23. Beirne is on World class form, Ryan is on World Class form, Toner is the steady set piece option.
3. Who plays 7. No a worry more a do who.
4. At 9 the same story. No clear contender.
5. Centres.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Ireland will have a three test series in NZ in 2022, mad to think that by the time we win our second consecutive RWC in 2023 our currently embarrassing 1-1-28 record against NZ will have transformed to a more respectable 8-1-28 record presuming we decide to host them at least once to give the youth a run.

 

[Bean]

Ireland will be destroyed in this game. Absolutely annihilated.

 

[jcahill1]

Good analysis on Ireland's attack here https://www.rugbypass.com/news/anal...nor-murray-is-the-lynchpin-of-irelands-attack

 

[Five Meters Out]

Ireland will have the weather, the crowd and the passion. They could play with 15 one legged barmen and still push the All Blacks close.

 

[Derpus]

We've been expected to win every game we've played since beating England in 2017, we only lost once in that period. Even with injuries there is still an expectation among many in this country of a win on Saturday. If we win nothing will change in that squad, our grand slam in 2019 will be decided in Cardiff, the QF and then final, if we win, will still be the pivotal RWC games. This current Ireland team shows no signs of the inconsistency that has burdened teams that came before it.

Forget the world cup for one week, this fixture is about as big as you can get outside of one.

I think if Sexton gets injured you won't pose a realistic threat to NZ in the RWC. Keep that guy in cotton wool eh.

A big reason why you lost to Aus in that test is because Sexton was rested.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I think if Sexton gets injured you won't pose a realistic threat to NZ in the RWC. Keep that guy in cotton wool eh.

A big reason why you lost to Aus in that test is because Sexton was rested.

Yeah, he's our most important player. I'm hoping Carvery will be good enough to beat everyone else come the RWC but Johnny is needed to beat NZ alright. He currently has a winning record in head to heads v Barrett too when they both start.

 

[Derpus]

Yeah, he's our most important player. I'm hoping Carvery will be good enough to beat everyone else come the RWC but Johnny is needed to beat NZ alright. He currently has a winning record in head to heads v Barrett too when they both start.

I hope you beat the ********. No particular love or hate for Ireland, but watching the All Blacks win every damn match is just the worst.

I imagine this is what people felt when Fergie won every trophy for a quarter century.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

Ireland will have a three test series in NZ in 2022, mad to think that by the time we win our second consecutive RWC in 2023 our currently embarrassing 1-1-28 record against NZ will have transformed to a more respectable 8-1-28 record presuming we decide to host them at least once to give the youth a run.

"more respectable" being the key term here...still not abjectly respectable

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Thornley's Probable Ireland team: Rob Kearney; Keith Earls, Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, Jacob Stockdale; Johnny Sexton, Kieran Marmion; Cian Healy, Rory Best (capt), Tadhg Furlong, James Ryan, Devin Toner, Peter O'Mahony, Dan Leavy, CJ Stander.

Replacements: Sean Cronin, Jack McGrath, Andrew Porter, Iain Henderson, Josh van der Flier, Luke McGrath, Joey Carbery, Jordan Larmour.

"more respectable" being the term word here...still not abjectly respectable

It's only the start lad!

 

[Hanley!]

Thornley's Probable Ireland team: Rob Kearney; Keith Earls, Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, Jacob Stockdale; Johnny Sexton, Kieran Marmion; Cian Healy, Rory Best (capt), Tadhg Furlong, James Ryan, Devin Toner, Peter O'Mahony, Dan Leavy, CJ Stander.

Replacements: Sean Cronin, Jack McGrath, Andrew Porter, Iain Henderson, Josh van der Flier, Luke McGrath, Joey Carbery, Jordan Larmour.

If that's the team, then we have a shot. Though if I had to guess I'd still go with the All Blacks by 9 points. If the centres aren't available, I don't think we've got much of a chance. With Henshaw and Farrell already injured, we're starting to seriously lack depth there. Not having Murray is bad enough, but I feel like we can just about get a job done if we're working with more or less our first choice team elsewhere.

That being said, I have serious doubts around Best at this point. Blindly hoping he's still the best man at hooker come the world cup is foolish at this point, in my mind, considering his age and his form. I'll be disappointed if he's still captain come the Six Nations. I'm not trying to kick him off the team prematurely, and he could end up being the right choice come the World Cup. But at least if he's relinquished the captaincy, he can be picked based on form.

Dropping Henderson from the starting team is probably the right call based on last week, but I wonder would it be better to give Beirne the bench spot. He's on top form at the moment, and there's not really anything else he could have done to earn a place in the 23.

 

[Leinster Fan]

Thornley's Probable Ireland team: Rob Kearney; Keith Earls, Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, Jacob Stockdale; Johnny Sexton, Kieran Marmion; Cian Healy, Rory Best (capt), Tadhg Furlong, James Ryan, Devin Toner, Peter O'Mahony, Dan Leavy, CJ Stander.

Replacements: Sean Cronin, Jack McGrath, Andrew Porter, Iain Henderson, Josh van der Flier, Luke McGrath, Joey Carbery, Jordan Larmour.



It's only the start lad!

I'd be surprised if anything else is named tomorrow given that that's the expected team anyway and that Thornley is almost always right (last week excluded). I'm very 50/50 on the result and I'm genuinely unsure whether I'm being cocky or pessimistic. I can easily see both results.

If that's the team, then we have a shot. Though if I had to guess I'd still go with the All Blacks by 9 points. If the centres aren't available, I don't think we've got much of a chance. With Henshaw and Farrell already injured, we're starting to seriously lack depth there. Not having Murray is bad enough, but I feel like we can just about get a job done if we're working with more or less our first choice team elsewhere.

That being said, I have serious doubts around Best at this point. Blindly hoping he's still the best man at hooker come the world cup is foolish at this point, in my mind, considering his age and his form. I'll be disappointed if he's still captain come the Six Nations. I'm not trying to kick him off the team prematurely, and he could end up being the right choice come the World Cup. But at least if he's relinquished the captaincy, he can be picked based on form.

Dropping Henderson from the starting team is probably the right call based on last week, but I wonder would it be better to give Beirne the bench spot. He's on top form at the moment, and there's not really anything else he could have done to earn a place in the 23.

I'm most nervous about the fitness of the centres. A lot will rest on whether they can cone through. I'm not sure if Best will make it much further but there isn't much we can do at this point. It's not like we can drop our captain for the ABs especially when the other options are hotheads like O'Mahony and Sexton. Best option (haha? anyone? - okay I'll leave now) is just to throw the ball at Toner's beautiful 6'11" frame on Saturday and work from there.

On Beirne you never know what's going on in training. Maybe he just hasn't done enough to convince Schmidt that he can be trusted for the bug games. His time will come, although in his position I'd be getting impatient because he's a relative latecomer to the international scene.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

i assume we'll see the teams announced tomorrow?

edit: on now...they might release the team now

All Blacks: 1 Karl Tu'inukuafe (11), 2 Codie Taylor (40), 3 Owen Franks (105), 4 Brodie Retallick (73), 5 Samuel Whitelock (107), 6 Liam Squire (22), 7 Ardie Savea (33), 8 Kieran Read (captain) (116), 9 Aaron Smith (81), 10 Beauden Barrett (71), 11 Rieko Ioane (22), 12 Ryan Crotty (43), 13 Jack Goodhue (6), 14 Ben Smith (75), 15Damian McKenzie (21).

Reserves: 16 Dane Coles (58), 17 Ofa Tu'ungafasi (24), 18 Nepo Laulala (15), 19 Scott Barrett (27), 20 Matt Todd (16), 21 TJ Perenara (53), 22 Richie Mo'unga (6), 23 Anton Lienert-Brown (31).

 

[Steeler]

ALB for Crotty in the first half thanks to injury - heard it here first

well if we can't beat Ireland with that line-up when they've got a few key injuries, then there's definltey something wrong with the team and suspcions of a decline will be confirmed.