[2018 November Tests] England v South Africa (3/10/18)

[BPM]

I'm not all about picking big lumps, but I don't think you can pick a back row without a decent lineout option.

This part of Robshaw's game (along with most of it) is underrated and he takes a lot of lineout ball for England. It doesn't have to be the 6 jumping but with a heavyweight 8, one of the flankers needs to.

Both the Curry twins are used by Sale so it could be that they develop in to decent lineout operators at test level too.

 

[BPM]

And to Old Hooker, IMO Itoje has the potential to be a world class lock. Some might argue he already is. As a 6, he's nowhere near as good. Why insist on playing him in his weaker position?

Ted Hill looks like the long term future at 6.

 

[All Black]

I'm going for South Africa only because they beat us lol.

These two teams always give us a tough test when we play.

I can't wait for these two super powers of rugby to play this weekend. So good clash.

 

[Tooting Carmen]

Home advantage should just about do it for England (it has for Wales in recent years against SA). England by three?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I want to think we'll win, but our injury list is ludicrous

17 players missing apparently - down to 4th? 5th? choice loosehead.
Tough to overcome that, even at home

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Big blokes are generally slower and tired quicker too. Size plays a big role but technique is extremely important and I'd say we should be more worried about the pretty poor technique of some of our players rather than their size. Hughes vs De Klerk shows what lots of extra weight used badly does against less weight but all of it used correctly.

You'll never find me arguing against the importance of technique. But like power and size it's only part of the jigsaw.

And to Old Hooker, IMO Itoje has the potential to be a world class lock. Some might argue he already is. As a 6, he's nowhere near as good. Why insist on playing him in his weaker position?

Ted Hill looks like the long term future at 6.

I think Itoje has the physique and game to potentially be the long term 6, but needs much more club time there. Right now he's a better lock, but internationally he fluctuates between excellent or anonymous, seldom consistently good. Because he's a bit smaller than the average international lock and more dependent on athleticism I'd argue that, more than most, he has to be totally on top of his game and fitness; anything short of that, as he has been since the Lions, and he's ordinary. His recent club form's been good, let's see if he can translate. Shame Retallick isn't on tour to benchmark against.

Hill has a lot of potential, but has started one GP game and shouldn't be near this discussion.

 

[Oliver Madden]

i'm not usually pessimistic but I can't help but be with regards to this game. competing In the forwards and in particular the back row will be challenging to say the least. the bookmakers have England favourites for this game, I seriously don't know why!. think SA will win by more than 7 points myself.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

You'll never find me arguing against the importance of technique. But like power and size it's only part of the jigsaw.

Exactly and I'd say our lighter flankers have better technique in the tackle and breakdown than our heavier flankers, so much so that it more than compensates for the weight disadvantage. Underhill is one of the most solid tacklers you will find (and his try saving tackle against Wales is basically rugby filth) whilst Curry is surprisingly solid tackling and an actual jackal threat. I wouldn't worry about SA running through either of them, I'd be MUCH more worried about SA getting the ball quickly out wide and simply running round our defence, which has one of the worst drifts of any tier 1 nation. We are setup to defend teams who want to bash their way through and can defend that well, what we are **** at defending is teams who offload or rapidly move the ball around.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Well, my hope is that we can pick up where we left during the RC. But with that said, under Rassie, we've only won 1 game away from home, so here's hoping we can improve that stat.

I think what does help a lot is that we don't have that many injuries and are able to pick a nearly full strength team that finished the RC. BUT, we are missing 2 players who was extremely influential in those games, and that is Faf de Klerk and Willie le Roux. And that leaves us with 2 positions that is extremely vital in beating opposition.

My guess is that Embrose Papier will take Faf's spot and Damian Willemse will take Willie's spot. so 2 rookies that oozes pace and excitement for 2 experienced cool heads. And this could work against us.

If England is going to use the high ball tactic, it might be a long day at the office for us, but then again, Willemse is pretty decent under the high ball, and can step pretty much on a dime...

 

[BPM]

Re. Ted Hill, I'm not talking about now or in the World Cup mix. I thought I'd made that clear?

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Exactly and I'd say our lighter flankers have better technique in the tackle and breakdown than our heavier flankers, so much so that it more than compensates for the weight disadvantage. Underhill is one of the most solid tacklers you will find (and his try saving tackle against Wales is basically rugby filth) whilst Curry is surprisingly solid tackling and an actual jackal threat. I wouldn't worry about SA running through either of them, I'd be MUCH more worried about SA getting the ball quickly out wide and simply running round our defence, which has one of the worst drifts of any tier 1 nation. We are setup to defend teams who want to bash their way through and can defend that well, what we are **** at defending is teams who offload or rapidly move the ball around.

Yeah. There are 200+ collisions in a game and you need to be winning more than your share. But if the other team's running rings around you and limiting contact that's a whole different set of problems. That's where the rugby smarts and organisation come into play. I'm sure Mitchell will have sorted it all out by Saturday. Might be a behind the sofa job.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Franco Mostert will not play this weekend:

https://www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/Springboks/rassie-explains-touchy-mostert-dilemma-20181030

"But we are fortunate that Pieter-Steph (Du Toit) has played there a lot, Lood de Jager is fit again, RG Snyman is here. So we have some options."

All 3 IMHO are in any case better than Mostert.

 

[spartan32]

In a game where we are so outmuscled is it wise to play the Ford Fax axis. Surely that just gives SA a clear and easy channel to run down, ie Fords, giving them certain front foot ball every time and getting them behind our defence.

Better I would suggest to play Faz at 10. But then I suppose you end up with Teo 12 and Manu 13, which is physically imposing but doesn't lend itself well to smart rugby.

Maybe put Manu 12 and Slade 13?
Or start Teo 12 with Slade 13 then bring Manu on for Slade 2nd half once SA have got a bit tired to create havoc?

Or play Teo and Manu from the start and look to bring Daley in as often as poss in attack to create the magic?

Whatever Jones decides I think this one requires something a bit special from the backs as the forwards are really up against it.

 

[SomeOke]

Franco Mostert will not play this weekend:

https://www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/Springboks/rassie-explains-touchy-mostert-dilemma-20181030



All 3 IMHO are in any case better than Mostert.

Ironically I'd rather keep PSDT at flank for the moment, we don't really have a big bruising replacement blindside flanker with no Jean luc du Preez in the squad, I suppose we could play Notshe, or move Vermulen to 7 if we wanted to go a different direction to straight brawn.

Anyway the squad make-up heavily implies PsDT will be used at 7 for the most part, feels like we are missing a flanker otherwise. Straight swap for Snyman in at 5, Lood in at 19 move on with our lives - I reckon.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Ironically I'd rather keep PSDT at flank for the moment, we don't really have a big bruising replacement blindside flanker with no Jean luc du Preez in the squad, I suppose we could play Notshe, or move Vermulen to 7 if we wanted to go a different direction to straight brawn.

Anyway the squad make-up heavily implies PsDT will be used at 7 for the most part, feels like we are missing a flanker otherwise. Straight swap for Snyman in at 5, Lood in at 19 move on with our lives - I reckon.

I think Lood might start ahead of Snyman. And I can't see PSDT being picked anywhere else but at 7. I think Notshe will be our cover on the bench for flanker and no. 8 as I doubt Whiteley will be 100% by this weekend, so RG and Notshe on the bench, Lood at 5 and PSDT at 7. more than enough cover for every position from 4 - 8.

 

[unrated]

I reckon the team will look exactly like this:

15. Willemse
14. Nkosi
13. Kriel
12. De Allende (Although i would have played Esterhuizen for this one)
11. Dyanti
10. Pollard
9. Schreuder ( This is probably the hardest one to call)
8. Vermeulen
7. PSdT
6. Kolisi
5. de Jager (I wuld not want de Jager jumping ahead of the queue as i feel Snyman deserves to start in the absence of Mostert and with PSdT at flank but its pretty obvious actually that de Jager will start)
4. Etzebeth
3. Wilco/Malherbe (my wish would have been to play Thomas the tank)
2. Marx
1. Kitshoff

This side looks like quality though even without the guys not selected , i know England has not been playing all that well, but....
1. they have had time to get their **** together
2. they are playing at home
3. most of the so called injured/retired (Marler) 18 are actually playing in the same front row positions
4. Mitchell will help them with the Afrikaans calls and player knowledge (proves why foreigners should not be appointed in SA)
5. Jones is a good coach and i have faith that England will be part of the top 3 by the world cup.

So will we win this? i thinks so, yes.
Our defence above all is remarkable, its leaps and bound better than when we faced England first up. Nienaber really is a defensive guru, England wont be able to deal with our rush defence, they will make errors. Lots of them, we will kick for touch and put pressure on their lineouts, expect the Springboks to play with the same tactic as the Sharks used against WP.
The rush defence would go all in, in their attempts to make sure the ball does not reach the third player, cut it off after 2 players, third player under enormous pressure forced to do a hot potato pass to his wing if time allows or get either smashed or intercepted. Wont necessarily work on saturday but that will be the Springbok tactic come Saturday. England wings could be in for braces or even triplets if our tactic does not work.

Obviously England could try and counter this by kicking box kicks in behind, Faf used to be our sweeper for this scenario. Now he is gone, will the new scrummie fulfill this role?

 

[TRF_heineken]

I actually think Petersen will be picked ahead of Nkosi, and Papier will start at 9. Other than that, I think your team is pretty much what I expect.

With the Beast not part of the squad, I think Thomas the tank, will be brieklig's backup.

 

[SomeOke]

@unrated ,
Agree that's very close to the likely side although I feel like Schreuder is the least likely 9 to start as he hasn't been in the system, something Rassie said heavily implied it will be van Zyl or Papier. I agree Esterhuizen deserves more of a shot but the few chances he has got he's blown unfortunately, hell of a talent who I rate highly however.

Lastly Thomas du Toit, while being a good talent has got nothing on Louw, Louw is better in just about every category (at least at tighthead, Thomas got monstered by Allister Vermaak this past weekend). Malherbe is a bit of a bum though, different story is we're talking about Coenie.

@TRF_heineken Sergreal would be a weird call for me, I like the guy but Nkosi has the caps.

 

[Nudger]

Having a lighter pack isn't such an issue if you play to deal with that. Unfortunately Jones' makes England play tactics that a team with a dominant pack would use in situations where we really aren't dominant. He chooses a lightweight pack playing heavyweight bashing rugby.

Speed can nullify a lot of the weight and even turn it against them. Unfortunately Their are glaciers that move faster than youngs can pass and the team as a whole refuse to ever accept they are 2nd best in the scrum, no matter how badly they get destroyed. We ALWAYS keep the ball in.

Has England got a heavier pack to choose

 

[Mr Ruggleby]

Has England got a heavier pack to choose

Not currently without significantly compromising on actual talent/quality. We do seem to have struggled to develop some truly brutish forwards for the last decade or so. Plenty of feist and aggression from our front row forwards, but in terms of back 5 I can't remember the last English player I watched and thought "what a monster". Even Lawes is actually quite slight for a lock and made his name smashing 10s, not 8s. Always feel a little bit jealous of NZ having two giant locks, SA having giants everywhere and Ireland with their back row animals.

That being said, we clearly have a lot of athletic and talented players, particularly at lock. Just feels like the team is lacking a bit of the grit from back in the days of Johnson, Grewcock, Moody, Worsley. I'd love for a team to be genuinely scared of our pack, but feel like the days of that might be gone. With that in mind + Halloween around the corner, England's scariest potential pack:

1. Genge
2. LCD
3. Sinckler
4. Stooke
5. Lawes
6. Itoje
7. Rhodes
8. Vunipola