[2018 6 Nations] Round 5 : England v Ireland (17/03/2018)

[corny]

But equally they've learnt from their mistakes. And have learnt what it takes. Look at Conan for example made 2 really telling errors defensively and was put out to slaughter and Jordi Murphy then took his shot. So instead of benching vs England Conan will have to reflect. But it means he will know next time and well it sets a standard.
I use Conan as an example but it could be same for alot of others down the last few years

Have they learned? Leavy made the same error against Scotland that he made against Italy. Shot up and allowed the outside break. Every game i see Stockdale i'm not convinced by his decision making in defence. He's guessing the entire time when the ball goes wide. Conan and Larmour mightn't play but the point still stands our less experienced players are prone to errors.

Schmidt is right to expose them to this level but it has its drawbacks short term.

 

[munstermuffin]

Have they learned? Leavy made the same error against Scotland that he made against Italy. Shot up and allowed the outside break. Every game i see Stockdale i'm not convinced by his decision making in defence. He's guessing the entire time when the ball goes wide. Conan and Larmour mightn't play but the point still stands our less experienced players are prone to errors.

Schmidt is right to expose them to this level but it has its drawbacks short term.

Again all fair points. But well to be fair it isn't a 1 game learning process

 

[TheSaffycen]

If you weigh up the positives and negatives they bring you, Stockdale and Leavy are great players. And both will probably destroy England in their own way....

 

[Joe Schmidt]

My concern is for my neighbours, they look worn out.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

If we change the backrow to something reasonable, I think we'll win. Yes we're garbage at the moment but as we all know Twickenham is a different prospect, and Ireland aren't at their very best yet

If we don't change the backrow at all, we'll lose.
Do we know who the ref is? With Garces or Polite we win. With Owens and Peyper we lose.

 

[RugbyMarvel]

If we change the backrow to something reasonable, I think we'll win. Yes we're garbage at the moment but as we all know Twickenham is a different prospect, and Ireland aren't at their very best yet

If we don't change the backrow at all, we'll lose.
Do we know who the ref is? With Garces or Polite we win. With Owens and Peyper we lose.

Ref is Angus Gardner. Probably won't allow hands on the ground before contest unlike Owens. More likely to be more strict around breakdown. Favours attacking side.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

Ref is Angus Gardner. Probably won't allow hands on the ground before contest unlike Owens. More likely to be more strict around breakdown. Favours attacking side.

That'll suit us well.
There's different types of 'strict' at the breakdown - there's those who are strict over holding on (favours defending team) and as you say those who are strict from a technical point of view, favouring the attacking team. (Actually, not so much "strict", more they actually follow the laws around hands on the floor/going beyond the ball).

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

If we change the backrow to something reasonable, I think we'll win. Yes we're garbage at the moment but as we all know Twickenham is a different prospect, and Ireland aren't at their very best yet

If we don't change the backrow at all, we'll lose.
Do we know who the ref is? With Garces or Polite we win. With Owens and Peyper we lose.

I'd agree that we haven't played to our best but I also think we have been stronger than we're being given credit for, I'm seeing plenty of comments, some here but mostly elsewhere, claiming we've been lucky, the sides we faced were weak, discrediting the France win due to the manner of it etc...

If you compare it with England's grand slam campaign in 2016 we've been far more impressive with the Championship won, and a game to go against a side who only managed to win their home game and the game against Italy, than England were in the same situation. We've scored 7 more tries, have a 17 point better points differential and it's fair to say France and Scotland are far better now and Wales haven't regressed that much. We've been all but dominant in an otherwise unpredictable tournament and will really have to beaten by England on Saturday because nothing will be given up easily. Huge turnarounds can happen in a week at this level, we saw it last year, but unlike last year the new faces England will bring in to counteract their injuries and broken system are inexperienced and worse than their opposite number rather than two players who'd tour with the Lions and a 46 cap International.

There's a lot more to this challenge than picking a backrow and depending on Twickers to guide you home, this will be your toughest 6n test in Twickenham since 2014 when, behind a magical Mike Brown performance, you snuck it home, I think Ireland are in a better place and England a worse place now than that fixture too.

That'll suit us well.
There's different types of 'strict' at the breakdown - there's those who are strict over holding on (favours defending team) and as you say those who are strict from a technical point of view, favouring the attacking team. (Actually, not so much "strict", more they actually follow the laws around hands on the floor/going beyond the ball).

I'd disagree again here, Ireland have 68, 63, 69 (woop woop) and 62% possession stats in their four games so far with both France and Scotland winning a few jackal penalties off us. The more rucks there are in the game the better chance we have considering our effectiveness both sides of the ball mean we generally have it 2/3rds of the time and force on average 10 penalties a game with four refs ranging from Barnes to Owens. I don't think England have a backrow (or centres or wings) who can mount a challenge.

I think England's only hope is a low scoring game with a score being the difference like we saw against Wales, the physicality and discipline will have to be far far better though. I'm wary of the away record in the 6n recently but find little else to be worried about, if the game was played on paper...

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

Alpha Bro, I'm not sure why you think I need convincing that Ireland are a great side! Me saying I reckon we'll win is not necessarily an opinion based on a whole lot of substantial evidence but more a random feeling. It may be bullshit, obviously, but in general I'm not one to go around presuming that Engerland will march inevitably to victory

Regardless, I'll pick up on a few points

In terms of possession stats, If I understand your point, it's partly that Ireland are very good at retaining possession and making opponents concede penalties. Fair enough.

However, my point would be that with greater breakdown protection from the referee, England can also be hard to rob of the ball - it's possible stats don't back me up but I feel like we don't cough the ball up that often. Also, we have a superior kicking game to any of the teams you've faced so far. Overall, even if what you say about Gardner favouring Ireland's style is more true than not, it will mark an improved position for England simply to be allowed to play their own game to any extent at all. I think it's totally possible that it could favour both teams - whereas Owens refereeing approach only favoured one team.

As disappointed and worried as I am about England, winning away games in the six nations is hard and nobody has a god given right to win them. Asides from fixtures involving Italy, only Ireland have won that one game against France and although Ireland deserve no less recognition for this, you were as close as possible to losing that game. That's just a fact. It's not about twickers, it's about the fact that I feel it's very easy to lose away from home if you're not spot on the money and particularly if you are refereed out of the game as we were with Owens. We haven't seen England play at home since this new slump and I honestly think it could be a different proposition.

In terms of personnel, I think you may be missing the point slightly, - Courtney Lawes is not playing well but is also playing out of position as I know you know, so even if potential replacements don't have as high a ceiling, most would be an improvement right now and an improvement to our overall balance. It's not about whether they are "better". Playing Armand would be a huge boost to our backrow, for example.
A number of subs made huge impacts at the weekend. LCD - that throw aside - Sinckler, Haskell... we were infinitely improved with those guys.

I think it's quite serious hubris to not think that England's wingers and centres could hurt you, given stronger building blocks to work from. I hate to use such a tired cliché, but England haven't lost all their ability overnight. I do find it quite amazing how swiftly opinions change.

 

[munstermuffin]

One Thing for sure. Stats in last 4 games go out the window. This is arguably a more intense fixture. Another thing to factor is it is in Twickenham. That means the Scottish game and French game can't be viewed in same way as this. Home advantage is a massive factor

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Will Ire be all keyed up over the Slam or be relaxed with the championship in the bag? If the latter it could be a very long afternoon.

We'll have home advantage, but we'll have neither momentum nor confidence which are so crucial.

 

[ncurd]

That'll suit us well.
There's different types of 'strict' at the breakdown - there's those who are strict over holding on (favours defending team) and as you say those who are strict from a technical point of view, favouring the attacking team. (Actually, not so much "strict", more they actually follow the laws around hands on the floor/going beyond the ball).

The two are not mutally exclusive though what tends to happen is holding on penalties are only given if the opposition are jackling for the ball. If the ref is offciating it right they dont give holiding on if the player isnusing his hand for support or off their feat. Its part of what made Owens so infuriating is very few holding on penalties were given for legal jackling. It was less of a problem with Peyper because he actually officiated the breakdown properly so most holding on penalties were legitimate.

 

[Big_Grumper]

If it is brown making the run in for the try i'm sure even best could stop him from 80 out.

Yea, 'cause you know he'll run straight into contact from the only Irish defender rather than avoiding him.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Alpha Bro, I'm not sure why you think I need convincing that Ireland are a great side! Me saying I reckon we'll win is not necessarily an opinion based on a whole lot of substantial evidence but more a random feeling. It may be bullshit, obviously, but in general I'm not one to go around presuming that Engerland will march inevitably to victory

I didn't mean to lecture, its more of a case that I'm seeing lots of people, on these shores and beyond, try to take away from the performance so far based on us not smashing every game, or being lucky here or there, this was just the first one to pounce on on these boards so I'm projecting another gripe on you, apologies!

In terms of personnel, I think you may be missing the point slightly, - Courtney Lawes is not playing well but is also playing out of position as I know you know, so even if potential replacements don't have as high a ceiling, most would be an improvement right now and an improvement to our overall balance. It's not about whether they are "better". Playing Armand would be a huge boost to our backrow, for example.
A number of subs made huge impacts at the weekend. LCD - that throw aside - Sinckler, Haskell... we were infinitely improved with those guys.

...

I hate to use such a tired cliché, but England haven't lost all their ability overnight. I do find it quite amazing how swiftly opinions change.

I don't doubt that they are improvements but they're young and/or inexperienced guys, and Hask, coming into a team that can't be in a good place mentally. The turnaround we experienced in a similar position last year was after we brought in Peter O'Mahony, Donnchadh Ryan and Jared Payne, they are strong characters who have captained their provinces and have 40, 45 and 19 caps respectively. If England had guys of that profile coming in as well as affecting areas of the game where you had struggled (Line out and playmaking was what these three improved) I think it'd be more noteworthy, as is though I don't it helps any further than getting a bad player (6) like Lawes out of the side which is only the start of the problems England faced in the past two rounds. So while I don't think England have lost their ability at all, right now they have lost their ability to use it effectively and I think it takes more than a few personnel changes to fix that over such a short period.

Of course there's little data to suggest that England's woes aren't isolated to away games and Ireland haven't scored a try away to tier 1 opposition in their last two attempts so this change in opinion could be premature. (I still had England marked down as favourites prior to the French game after the Scotland one) Add to that the weight of expectation on a squad with numerous key young players as well as most of the reasons to be confident being potentially fixable English problems and there's plenty of reason for us to be very wary.

I think it's quite serious hubris to not think that England's wingers and centres could hurt you, given stronger building blocks to work from.

I mentioned centres and wings only meaning to reference their work at the breakdown, its something that centres and wings in Schmidt sides excel at and I don't see it in England. If you can get quick wide ball we'll feel it, with our backrow and Ford's history against Sexton and Irish backrows I don't fear it though likewise if you pick Farrell with Te'o at 12 because I think you'll experience the attacking difficulties Ireland have away from home in that case.

Will Ire be all keyed up over the Slam or be relaxed with the championship in the bag? If the latter it could be a very long afternoon.

We'll have home advantage, but we'll have neither momentum nor confidence which are so crucial.

We only have two slams in history and '09 is generally regarded as the biggest achievement in living memory, if not ever, in Irish team sports so I don't think there's any fear of that. The opposite might happen and we could see a choke job though.

 

[Scotty]

As it stands the table has not been affected by the bp system, on wins and PD the table would be exactly the same order.
Ireland 8 65 19 bp system
Wales 4 35 11
England 4 19 10
France 4 15 10
Scotland 4 -29 8
Italy 0 -109 0

Thing is wales going into the last round, if england win and wales win, england get 4 trys and wales get 4 trys then wales get second even if england does enough to win on pd. The old way was the best IMO.

I dont care if england come 5th or 1st id still feel the same. This comp is to small for BP to be a positive thing, no bp and ireland are fighting for the grand slam and the rest are all on 8 points looking for high scoring games.

Just lucky its fell as it has;
Ita v sco
Scotland end up on 13, bp obv expected but doesnt matter really
Eng v ire
England know they have to win to get second, bp incase wales win, Obv Ire GS if they win.
Then finally wal v fra
Wales will know they need a win or bp win to beat england but England lose then wales or france just need to win.

I know there is more ways it can go but tbh that is not better than it all been about PD

Most people seem to be all for the bp system but im not, sure im not the only one but only one ive found on here.

The old way, scotland on -29 need massive win making for an adventurous high scoring game.

The england need a win but also need to score more than wales to secure second meaning a hard fort game

And finally wales and france both knowing what they had to do to get second, winner takes all but still need to get a good PD for second.


Take bp system out of this tournement and the games would have ended up the same.


Not a fan. Just saying. And preparing for everyone to put my opinions apart

Next year could be england grand slam id still say the same. I said it last year.

 

[Which Tyler]

Most people seem to be all for the bp system but im not, sure im not the only one but only one ive found on here.

You're really not.
Since it's been introduced I've yet to see a benefit to BPs in the 6N, which is just too small, and absent of a home&away fixture list to deserve one.

 

[Amiga500]

Most people seem to be all for the bp system but im not, sure im not the only one but only one ive found on here.

The old way, scotland on -29 need massive win making for an adventurous high scoring game.

But then would Ireland have pushed so hard for a 4th try last week?

You've got one game (the final one) where teams are chasing big scores - whereas with the BP system, from the first game teams are (to a degree) chasing 4 tries.

Your looking at half the argument.

I don't think the BP system is great given its not a H/A fixture tournament - but I don't think it should be removed on the basis of your argument. More, I think it should be removed as it gives a team having 3 home fixtures (vs. 3 away) an even greater advantage to having the home crowd.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

England getting the touchie in to their training session yesterday... Walked away with four big brown envelopes if reports are to be believed!

 

[ratsapprentice]

England getting the touchie in to their training session yesterday... Waled away with four big brown envelopes if reports are to be believed!

Doing a bit of touching on the side?

Salacious.

 

[mosfeldt]

think it should be removed as it gives a team having 3 home fixtures (vs. 3 away) an even greater advantage to having the home crowd.

Let's be honest with ourselves here. In terms of the actual competition every team has 2 home and away fixtures. I don't buy the argument that team X had an advantage over other teams because they had "3" home fixtures.