You have to go back to 1998 for Scotland's last win in Lansdowne road (They won in Dublin in one of their trips to Croke Park but Ireland were bad in Croker with the exception of '09) Schmidt has lost thrice at home and never to European opposition. A lot of hope seems to be put on the shoulders of Huw Jones, and while he is the world's best 13, I wouldn't expect much from the Laidlaw Russell axis. Finn isn't great up against more physical 10's and likely has the occasional nightmare of being dad picked by Johnny.
My only worry for this game is that a grand slam is on the line and the team I'm supporting wears green, the bottlers tag is slowly coming loose after Paris and the first half of the Welsh game where we played awful and came out on top! Ireland are at -10, seems about right to me.