2016 RBS Six Nations Predictions

[Peat]

*takes one look at dull's post and hides in a bunker*

Not hugely. He clearly lacks the talent to be a top end winger in a quite painfully obvious way. That said, he's put in more than a few solid international performances and is useful enough in the "I'm reliable and physical enough not to be a liability in defence and make decent ground in attack". Gilroy may be a superior attacking winger right enough, but until he defends like D. Kearney, he's not playing for Ireland, for better or for worse. Well. Better at provincial level at least.

*locks bunker door behind him*

Ahh... what the hell. Ireland have an ok stock of ok internationals in the back 3 but most of those names simply won't worry most teams. Ireland's back three will be functional at most unless the men inside carve it up.

 

[Groundhog]

Does anyone actually rate Dave Kearney? He's a solid enough provincial player, but he's not international quality imo. He's just a bit meh! Good in the air maybe, but he's not that fast, not that big, not that agile. Gilroy I have a lot of time for though. Not really been in the frame for a while now though. Pity, as he made such an impact at first.

No, I really don't rate him. He's been dubbed Daverage by a lot of Munster fans which is poor form, especially given the types of wingers we've produced in the past (Horgan, Kelly et al). I'll admit but he is painfully average I think. Good in the air, and often solid but he is easily gassed by actually fast wingers and offers very little in attack bad his air prowess.
Like you I really rate Gilroy. When he actually plays I think he's the most exciting player in this country. People often cite Zebo as a flair player but Gilroy really has it all I think. His instincts are just killer the way he makes the conscious decision to spin out of tackles and his feet are just something else. I think he's the type of player we need to promote if we want to play a sustainable and positive style of rugby. I think Earls is that type of player too honestly. We can admit he's not a great centre, but he also has great speed, class feet and thrives off of kicking game too. It's hard to look past Trimble either but he's a very different powerful type of winger who does very little wrong.

 

[munstermuffin]

On all this. Dave Kearney suits a Schmidt gameplan. But he's not a finisher. On form at moment Trimble is the best wing in Ireland and the Connacht lads just behind.

 

[Groundhog]

Yeah Healy will probably be overlooked because he's very small and decidedly not a Schnidt style player. My only hope is that he changes his style because it's become very predictable and easy to defend against and while it was wildly effective for a few seasons we know what an attractive brand of rugby he can have us playing.

 

[big ginger 8]

Yeah Healy will probably be overlooked because he's very small and decidedly not a Schnidt style player. My only hope is that he changes his style because it's become very predictable and easy to defend against and while it was wildly effective for a few seasons we know what an attractive brand of rugby he can have us playing.

Healy will be overlooked because his kicking and defence aren't up to the level required and his attacking ability doesn't make up for that enough.

DK is pretty underrated imo, when looking at pure ability he's not in the 23 but on a good run of form (as he was in the run up to the WC) he's a more than capable starter. He does pretty much exactly what Schmidt wants from his wingers. His ability to beat the first man is also criminally underrated.

Are gameplan has being continually evolving to become more expansive. It's a criticism you see a lot but I'm not entirely sure of it's validity. Sure we're not the Harlem Globetrotters of rugby but I think we're certainly more expansive than we were in Schmidt's first 6N and I expect that trend to continue. There's not point switching to all out flair when you don't have the team for it or it results in you being more likely to lose.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Dave Kearney has been one of Ireland's top three wingers for the last three seasons barring his early season form this season. We've got a bunch of flakes when it comes to wing options and DK eclipses the rest of them when it comes to consistency. As a player he's not going to set the world alight or score for fun but he has an eye for the line when given a chance, which has been rare under Schmidt, and won't ruin opportunities. If Bowe, Trimble, Zebo and Earls were all on form DK wouldn't have a look but that will never happen.

- - - Updated - - -

Dave Kearney has been one of Ireland's top three wingers for the last three seasons barring his early season form this season. We've got a bunch of flakes when it comes to wing options and DK eclipses the rest of them when it comes to consistency. As a player he's not going to set the world alight or score for fun but he has an eye for the line when given a chance, which has been rare under Schmidt, and won't ruin opportunities. If Bowe, Trimble, Zebo and Earls were all on form DK wouldn't have a look but that will never happen.

 

[LukeFitzgerald]

Don't really get all the Dave Kearney hate. He's a solid international player but obviously won't make the All Blacks.
His strength, power, dynamism and agility have all improved over the last year. If you watched him last night against the Ospreys, you could see all of these attributes in action. Looked a quality player.

I don't really get how none of the above posters mentioned Fitz to be in the starting XV. Over the last 3/4 years, he has consistently been one of the best players in Ireland but has been ruined with injury. He has feet as good as Gilroy (if not better) and is a world class defender on both the wing and in the centres. D'Arcy has described 13 as the most difficult position to defend and Fitz has been nothing short of world class in defending the 13 channel. His only downfall (apart from being injury prone) is his ability under the high ball. He is almost the complete back.

My starting backline (assuming Henshaw is fit and Payne is out) would be along the lines of:
9. Murray
10. Sexton
11. D. Kearney/Gilroy/Zebo
12. Fitzgerald
13. Henshaw
14. Trimble
15. R. Kearney

or

9. Murray
10 Sexton
11. Fitzgerald
12. McCloskey
13. Henshaw
14. Trimble
15. R. Kearney

 

[munstermuffin]

Don't really get all the Dave Kearney hate. He's a solid international player but obviously won't make the All Blacks.
His strength, power, dynamism and agility have all improved over the last year. If you watched him last night against the Ospreys, you could see all of these attributes in action. Looked a quality player.

I don't really get how none of the above posters mentioned Fitz to be in the starting XV. Over the last 3/4 years, he has consistently been one of the best players in Ireland but has been ruined with injury. He has feet as good as Gilroy (if not better) and is a world class defender on both the wing and in the centres. D'Arcy has described 13 as the most difficult position to defend and Fitz has been nothing short of world class in defending the 13 channel. His only downfall (apart from being injury prone) is his ability under the high ball. He is almost the complete back.

My starting backline (assuming Henshaw is fit and Payne is out) would be along the lines of:
9. Murray
10. Sexton
11. D. Kearney/Gilroy/Zebo
12. Fitzgerald
13. Henshaw
14. Trimble
15. R. Kearney

or

9. Murray
10 Sexton
11. Fitzgerald
12. McCloskey
13. Henshaw
14. Trimble
15. R. Kearney

It's not hate for Dave Kearney more realistic talk. He played well last night but his strike rate for a winger is poor and even more appalling against top teams. 1 game can't define a guy. Like Daves last game internationally was his worst ever for Ireland and probably in his career. I'm not saying he won't be in mix as every wing has faults but he's not at international top standard but in saying that we don't have many who are.

 

[LukeFitzgerald]

It's not hate for Dave Kearney more realistic talk. He played well last night but his strike rate for a winger is poor and even more appalling against top teams. 1 game can't define a guy. Like Daves last game internationally was his worst ever for Ireland and probably in his career. I'm not saying he won't be in mix as every wing has faults but he's not at international top standard but in saying that we don't have many who are.

Luke fitzgerald's scoring rate is pretty poor for a winger yet he is clearly one of Ireland's best players. Schmidt's methods of scoring tries isn't flinging the ball wide and hoping for the centre to make a break and feed the ball to a pacy winger to score in the corner. It's about accuracy, getting the basics right, stopping the opposition from playing and scoring off penalties or pre planned moves. D. Kearney is a strong tackler, great in the air, strong in contact, has a bit of pace about him, solid at clearing out, strong kick chaser and solid positionally from a defensive point of view. Yes he had a poor game against Argentina but he wasn't the sole reason that we got cut to pieces. We were missing 2 of our defensive organisers in Sexton and Payne who boss our backline defensively. We had that abomination of a centre in Keith Earls playing at 13 who was abysmal. Don't even need to get into the loss of POC, SOB and POM. Should have started Fitz at 13.
All in all, I wouldn't start D. Kearney if we had all our options fit (probably wouldn't make the 23) but he is nowhere near as poor as everyone thinks he is.

 

[munstermuffin]

Luke fitzgerald's scoring rate is pretty poor for a winger yet he is clearly one of Ireland's best players. Schmidt's methods of scoring tries isn't flinging the ball wide and hoping for the centre to make a break and feed the ball to a pacy winger to score in the corner. It's about accuracy, getting the basics right, stopping the opposition from playing and scoring off penalties or pre planned moves. D. Kearney is a strong tackler, great in the air, strong in contact, has a bit of pace about him, solid at clearing out, strong kick chaser and solid positionally from a defensive point of view. Yes he had a poor game against Argentina but he wasn't the sole reason that we got cut to pieces. We were missing 2 of our defensive organisers in Sexton and Payne who boss our backline defensively. We had that abomination of a centre in Keith Earls playing at 13 who was abysmal. Don't even need to get into the loss of POC, SOB and POM. Should have started Fitz at 13.
All in all, I wouldn't start D. Kearney if we had all our options fit (probably wouldn't make the 23) but he is nowhere near as poor as everyone thinks he is.

I agree he fits Schmidts plan. It's will Schmidt expand his plan. And I don't know where you get he's a strong tackler. He's had poor stats there consistently last few years. He's not poorest but nowhere near as good as your making him out to be.

 

[LukeFitzgerald]

I agree he fits Schmidts plan. It's will Schmidt expand his plan. And I don't know where you get he's a strong tackler. He's had poor stats there consistently last few years. He's not poorest but nowhere near as good as your making him out to be.

Over the last 2 years he's been very consistent with his tackling. He put in a good few hits last night.

After watching munster's match today, would you start Zebo or Earls over D. Kearney considering how dreadful they were?

 

[munstermuffin]

Over the last 2 years he's been very consistent with his tackling. He put in a good few hits last night.

After watching munster's match today, would you start Zebo or Earls over D. Kearney considering how dreadful they were?

But stats don't lie he hasn't been consistent as stat show. Out of 3 as a winger Earls is who I'd have. Zebo is better attacking than Kearney but as bad defensively. Earls is the proven try scorer and best all rounder of 3. Also the better defender of 3 by a bit as a winger.

Again you can't use just 1 game and it's hard compare 2 games as they're 2 total different levels.

 

[LukeFitzgerald]

But stats don't lie he hasn't been consistent as stat show. Out of 3 as a winger Earls is who I'd have. Zebo is better attacking than Kearney but as bad defensively. Earls is the proven try scorer and best all rounder of 3. Also the better defender of 3 by a bit as a winger.

Again you can't use just 1 game and it's hard compare 2 games as they're 2 total different levels.

Earls is a horrific defender. I admit he has improved but he is still terrible. Also, do you have any stats to back up Kearney's tackling?
Zebo has become a liability in general. People keep referring to his "X factor" which is complete nonsense. Yes he is a very talented player but is very overrated. He showed some serious potential back in 2012/13 but has not built on it. As poor as Earls is, I would pick him over Zebo instantaneously.

 

[dullonien]

What did I start!? Sorry..

 

[munstermuffin]

Earls is a horrific defender. I admit he has improved but he is still terrible. Also, do you have any stats to back up Kearney's tackling?
Zebo has become a liability in general. People keep referring to his "X factor" which is complete nonsense. Yes he is a very talented player but is very overrated. He showed some serious potential back in 2012/13 but has not built on it. As poor as Earls is, I would pick him over Zebo instantaneously.

Yea I have stats to back up. I always have. Again I'm not saying Earls is a great defender just better than other 2. Regards Zebo and X factor. He has good days and bad days. But a wingers main thing to be based on is their strike rate and he has an excellent 1 with great poachers instinct. And you obviously don't rate Earls so I won't get in to it but well again I stats show up his game matches up to all the attributes of a winger.

 

[big ginger 8]

But stats don't lie he hasn't been consistent as stat show. Out of 3 as a winger Earls is who I'd have. Zebo is better attacking than Kearney but as bad defensively. Earls is the proven try scorer and best all rounder of 3. Also the better defender of 3 by a bit as a winger.

Again you can't use just 1 game and it's hard compare 2 games as they're 2 total different levels.

Stats don't lie but they don't tell a full story either. Missed tackles in particular are quite misleading without context. Especially for a winger. If it's a straight up missed tackle than yeah it missing tackles is bad but wingers often have to make tackles on kick chases as shooters. If the kick is too long or they encounter too much interference, chances are they're going to miss the tackle. If things fall apart inside their situation becomes a lot harder, not to mention the fact that wingers will often end up being the ones to attempt covering tackles. From the simple eye test DK is clearly a technically adept tackler and will often put players on there ass. Go back and have a look at the warm up match against England if you need some proof.

I agree Earls is the best winger out of the three but DK and Zebo are in or around the same level with Zebo's bad form recently putting him below DK I'd say.

What did I start!? Sorry..

You have no idea...

For being the two who inspired @boringkearney the Kearney bros are two players who will definitely spark arguments among Irish rugby fans.

If you ever want some fun go on boards.ie and make a post saying DK to start for Ireland, sit back and watch the ridiculousness.

 

[munstermuffin]

Stats don't lie but they don't tell a full story either. Missed tackles in particular are quite misleading without context. Especially for a winger. If it's a straight up missed tackle than yeah it missing tackles is bad but wingers often have to make tackles on kick chases as shooters. If the kick is too long or they encounter too much interference, chances are they're going to miss the tackle. If things fall apart inside their situation becomes a lot harder, not to mention the fact that wingers will often end up being the ones to attempt covering tackles. From the simple eye test DK is clearly a technically adept tackler and will often put players on there ass. Go back and have a look at the warm up match against England if you need some proof.

I agree Earls is the best winger out of the three but DK and Zebo are in or around the same level with Zebo's bad form recently putting him below DK I'd say.



You have no idea...

For being the two who inspired @boringkearney the Kearney bros are two players who will definitely spark arguments among Irish rugby fans.

If you ever want some fun go on boards.ie and make a post saying DK to start for Ireland, sit back and watch the ridiculousness.

BG8 I don't disagree and as I said I'm not saying Kearney is rubbish he's just at club level at moment. Your comments about his tackling are right. I haven't got the stat of tackle scenario. But let's not fool ourselves Kearney isn't a top defender. Neither is the other 2 by the way. Kearney would put a guy back as he is a powerful guy.
If you read back you know last year I slated Dave but in RWC warm ups I was 1 saying he fully deserved his spot as he was in super form. But at moment I think he's behind Earls and Trimble (who's been the best by a mile). Luke Fitz will probably be in mix as winger too.

The bigger debate will be 8 for Ireland. I've seen a few Leinster say Stander deserves the shot. Although strong indications are Stander will be 6.

 

[LukeFitzgerald]

The bigger debate will be 8 for Ireland. I've seen a few Leinster say Stander deserves the shot. Although strong indications are Stander will be 6.

There is absolutely no debate at 8 for Ireland. Heaslip is by far our best option. He is invaluable to any team he is in. The amount of dirt work he gets through is unbelievable.
There is a slight question at 6, whether we go with:
6. Ruddock
7. SOB
8. Heaslip

6. SOB
7. Henry
8. Heaslip

6. Stander
7. SOB
8. Heaslip

Out of those 3 combos, I'd suspect that Schmidt would go for one of the first 2 options, considering we have Wales up first. Schmidt won't want to shove Stander in there considering he's been at only 1 Irish camp so far. Also, Ruddock and Henry have both been in great form this year, Ruddock, in particular, has been class for the last 2 years.

 

[big ginger 8]

Heaslip is rightly or wrongly the most likely candidate for the captaincy. If Stander starts it's at 6.

 

[munstermuffin]

Maybe but there's no denying Stander has been the form backrow player in Ireland this year. Which is more impressive considering issues in Munster. At the camp the pack that seemed to be 1st choice was

McGrath
Best
White
Toner
McCarthy
Stander
SOB
Heaslip

Regards Captaincy I've heard Best Sexton and Kearney are strong candidates too so I'd think it'll go to Best for now.