2014 Super Rugby - The playoff push, who's going to make it

[Shaggy]

Hi All,

Well there's still a few rounds to go, so I thought it would be interesting to get some opinions of who's going to make the playoffs.

Here are the New Zealand teams remaining matches courtesy of the NZ Herald (I'll try and get the other conferences later, unless someone else wants to post them)

Given the Blues inability to win away from home, I don't think they'll make it this year.

I think the Chiefs could win 3 or 4 of their remaining 5 games, The Hurricanes have 3 home games out of the 5 remaining games (all against NZ teams) they are in great form, but I'm still concerned about their defense. The Crusaders have six games left, and four are at home ... I'm going to go out on a limb here, and suggest that they will win all of those home games, the two away games against the Hurricanes (who can cut any side to pieces with their attack, and the Highlanders, who have tripped the Crusaders up before, I don't feel so confident about. I love to see the Highlanders make the playoffs - they've had a great season, but they have four away games, and their squad is starting to feel the squeeze through injuries.

I predict that at least two NZ teams will make the playoffs - probably the Chiefs and the Crusaders, the Sharks are pretty much a certainty aren't they ... they'd have to have a very bad run, and the Bulls a very good one, for them not to qualify first in the South African Conference ... they both could qualify, the Bulls are two games ahead of some of the other contenders. The three way scrap between the Brumbies, Force, and Waratahs promises to be an interesting tussle. The Force have certainly surprised me this year, and could top the Australian conference as they are just finishing their South African tour, they are likely to pick up a win in Perth when the Blues play there, but will probably lose to the Crusaders in Christchurch. Not to sure about the others remaining games, so I can't really predict.

... Your thoughts?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/news/article.cfm?c_id=80&objectid=11253276

[h=3]Playoff push[/h]Blues
Bye
v Sharks (home)
v Hurricanes (home)
v Force (away)
v Crusaders (away)
v Chiefs (home)
Chiefs
Bye
v Hurricanes (away)
v Waratahs (home)
v Highlanders (away)
v Hurricanes (home)
v Blues (away)
Hurricanes
v Highlanders (home)
v Chiefs (home)
v Blues (away)
v Crusaders (home)
v Chiefs (away)
Bye
Crusaders
v Sharks (home)
v Highlanders (away)
v Force (home)
v Hurricanes (away)
v Blues (home)
v Highlanders (home)
Highlanders
v Hurricanes (away)
v Crusaders (home)
v Reds (away)
v Chiefs (home)
v Waratahs (away)
v Crusaders (away)

 

[TRF_heineken]

Well the Bulls only have 2 more away matches left. One at Newlands vs. Stormers and one at Ellis Park vs. the Lions.

The Bulls have a bye this upcoming weekend, and then they face the Brumbies at home followed by a short trip to Jo'burg against the Lions and then to Newlands to face the Stormers. Their last match is against the Rebels at Loftus. The Bulls have a chance to win all 4 games, as the 2 away games opposition has already lost to them this season, and the Rebels must be seen as a must-win match at home. The only worry will be the Brumbies, who beaten them at Loftus during last year's playoffs....

I like their chances at this moment.

 

[Shaggy]

Well the Bulls only have 2 more away matches left. One at Newlands vs. Stormers and one at Ellis Park vs. the Lions.

The Bulls have a bye this upcoming weekend, and then they face the Brumbies at home followed by a short trip to Jo'burg against the Lions and then to Newlands to face the Stormers. Their last match is against the Rebels at Loftus. The Bulls have a chance to win all 4 games, as the 2 away games opposition has already lost to them this season, and the Rebels must be seen as a must-win match at home. The only worry will be the Brumbies, who beaten them at Loftus during last year's playoffs....

I like their chances at this moment.

I agree, you guys are looking good ... the Brumbies game, and the Stormers at Newlands look like the only potential hickups to me ... what's the Sharks run home like ... I know they have the Crusaders and then the Blues, both away from home (they could both be tough), but then they have three more games

 

[TRF_heineken]

I agree, you guys are looking good ... the Brumbies game, and the Stormers at Newlands look like the only potential hickups to me ... what's the Sharks run home like ... I know they have the Crusaders and then the Blues, both away from home (they could both be tough), but then they have three more games

The Sharks' remaining fixtures are:
17 May Crusaders v Sharks 09:35 AMI Stadium, Christchurch
23 May Blues v Sharks 09:35 North Harbour Stadium
31 May Sharks v Stormers 19:10 Kings Park, Durban
05 July Cheetahs v Sharks 19:10 Bloemfontein
12 July Stormers v Sharks 19:10 Newlands, Cape Town

They still have to play the Stormers twice, which could be a more difficult campaign for them than they might expect, especially since the Stormers seem to get their better players back the longer the season goes on...

 

[Shaggy]

The Sharks' remaining fixtures are:
17 May Crusaders v Sharks 09:35 AMI Stadium, Christchurch
23 May Blues v Sharks 09:35 North Harbour Stadium
31 May Sharks v Stormers 19:10 Kings Park, Durban
05 July Cheetahs v Sharks 19:10 Bloemfontein
12 July Stormers v Sharks 19:10 Newlands, Cape Town

They still have to play the Stormers twice, which could be a more difficult campaign for them than they might expect, especially since the Stormers seem to get their better players back the longer the season goes on...

So, they have one more game to play than the Bulls and are two games (8 points) ahead on the points table, but their remaining games are harder than the Bulls games ... could be a tight finish for that top spot in the conference, and they both could make it to the playoffs anyway

 

[Gena_ZA]

As last towards the end of the competition the Bulls and Crusader starting to show form.
Chiefs and Sharks look set to be there as well
Hurricanes, Waratahs and Force to fight out the remaining 2 spots

Rest is all gonners this year

 

[Shaggy]

As last towards the end of the competition the Bulls and Crusader starting to show form.
Chiefs and Sharks look set to be there as well
Hurricanes, Waratahs and Force to fight out the remaining 2 spots

Rest is all gonners this year

Yep, but the rest will probably knock over a few of those teams that are still in the hunt too

 

[Shaggy]

Here's the run in for the Three leading Australian contenders:

The Waratahs

Home v Lions, Brumbies, Highlanders

They have been playing well at home this season ... the Brumbies and maybe the Highlanders could give them a little trouble though ... I'd expect that they will win at least two of the home games.

Away v Rebels, Chiefs, Reds

As the Chiefs will be at home, I expect that they'd beat the Tahs ... the clashes between the Tahs and the Reds are usually pretty tightly fought encounters although the first one this season wasn't (Reds at home should even this up though), Rebels aren't a guaranteed win at home either ... I'd expect the Tahs to win one, possibly Two of their Away games

Brumbies

Home v Rebel, Force (last game)

I expect the Brumbies to win both the home games, although the Force game could be a cracker, as it might determine who wins the Conference

Away v Cheetahs, Bulls, Waratahs

South African teams are never easy to beat on their home track, and neither are the Tahs ... they should go into the match against the Cheetahs as favourites, but I'm not convinced they can beat the resurgent Bulls ... the Tahs game could be a tight tussle

Force

Home v Lions, Blues, Reds

None of those teams are playing particularly well away from home, so the Force could very well win all three of these matches

Away v Stormers, Crusaders, Brumbies

I think the force will struggle against all three of these sides, and could loose them all.


... I would try and do some calculations to see who the likely playoff teams are ... but my head hurts already

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

I'm thinking we'll see the top six being: Crusaders, Brumbies, Sharks, Chiefs, Waratahs, Hurricanes

Crusaders 31 + 22 = 53
Brumbies 34 + 17 = 51
Sharks 36 + 13 = 49
Chiefs 35 + 13 = 48
Waratahs 29 + 17 = 46
Hurricanes 30 + 15 = 45

The final being Crusaders v Brumbies in Christchurch.

 

[Shaggy]

I'm thinking we'll see the top six being: Crusaders, Brumbies, Sharks, Chiefs, Waratahs, Hurricanes

Crusaders 31 + 22 = 53
Brumbies 34 + 17 = 51
Sharks 36 + 13 = 49
Chiefs 35 + 13 = 48
Waratahs 29 + 17 = 46
Hurricanes 30 + 15 = 45

The final being Crusaders v Brumbies in Christchurch.

I wouldn't mind see that happen from a Crusaders supporters point of view, given what a crappy start they had this year ... not convinced about the final standings for the Aussie teams ... but then we are Crystal ball gazing though.

Also interested to see how the teams perform after the respective test series's ... I know various All blacks have struggled in Super Rugby after a test series in the past ... not sure how the other nations go

Here's he numbers crunched by Rob Houwing in his Sport24 article using last years cut off of 54 points, less the 8 for the byes that are no longer awarded.

http://www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/Super15/Bulls-still-need-four-from-four-20140512

*If last season's minimum playoffs-qualifying tally of 46 points (it was really 54, but given the presence then of eight now-redundant bye points per team) is used as the yardstick for reaching the finals series again, this is what most of the remaining challengers will have to do in the remaining weeks:

1 Sharks (36 points from 11 matches thus far): need 10 out of possible 25 left

2 Chiefs (35 points from 11 matches): need 11 out of 25

3 Brumbies (34 points from 11 matches): need 12 out of 25

4 Crusaders (31 points from 10 matches): need 15 out of 30

5 Force (31 points from 10 matches): need 15 out of 30

6 Hurricanes (30 points from 11 matches): need 16 out of 25

7 Highlanders (30 points from 10 matches): need 16 from 30

8 Waratahs (29 points from 10 matches): need 17 from 30

9 Bulls (28 points from 12 matches): need 18 from 20

 

[nzlizard]

Crusaders, Brumbies, Chiefs, Sharks are all certain for the playoffs for me.

Then looking at the Canes, Force, Waratahs or Bulls to round out the last 2 spots.

I hope the Force make the playoffs for the 1st time.

The Canes will pip the Highlanders as they have 2 games against the Crusaders coming up and will find it harder to get points.

 

[TRF_heineken]

I wouldn't mind see that happen from a Crusaders supporters point of view, given what a crappy start they had this year ... not convinced about the final standings for the Aussie teams ... but then we are Crystal ball gazing though.

Also interested to see how the teams perform after the respective test series's ... I know various All blacks have struggled in Super Rugby after a test series in the past ... not sure how the other nations go

Here's he numbers crunched by Rob Houwing in his Sport24 article using last years cut off of 54 points, less the 8 for the byes that are no longer awarded.

http://www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/Super15/Bulls-still-need-four-from-four-20140512

*If last season's minimum playoffs-qualifying tally of 46 points (it was really 54, but given the presence then of eight now-redundant bye points per team) is used as the yardstick for reaching the finals series again, this is what most of the remaining challengers will have to do in the remaining weeks:

1 Sharks (36 points from 11 matches thus far): need 10 out of possible 25 left

2 Chiefs (35 points from 11 matches): need 11 out of 25

3 Brumbies (34 points from 11 matches): need 12 out of 25

4 Crusaders (31 points from 10 matches): need 15 out of 30

5 Force (31 points from 10 matches): need 15 out of 30

6 Hurricanes (30 points from 11 matches): need 16 out of 25

7 Highlanders (30 points from 10 matches): need 16 from 30

8 Waratahs (29 points from 10 matches): need 17 from 30

9 Bulls (28 points from 12 matches): need 18 from 20

It's interesting indeed.

But something that has to be taken into consideration is that most of these teams still have to play each other.

The Bulls only have to play the Brumbies (1)
The Sharks has to play the Crusaders (1)
The Chiefs has to play the Hurricanes twice, the Highlanders and the Waratahs (4)
The Brumbies has to play the Bulls, Waratahs and the Force (3)
The Crusaders has to play the Sharks, Force & Hurricanes (3)
The Force has to play the Crusaders & Brumbies (2)
The Hurricanes has to play the Chiefs twice, the Highlanders and the Crusaders (4)
The Highlanders has to play the Hurricanes, Crusaders twice, Chiefs and the Waratahs (5)
The Waratahs has to play the Chiefs, Brumbies and Highlanders (3)

The bracketed part is the amount of games the team will play against the top 9 teams.

The South African conference looks to be the easier routes, but their derby games are brutal, and the Sharks still have to play the Stormers twice.

I think the team who has the best chance is the Force, while the Highlanders have the toughest assignment of all the teams.

 

[Jaguares]

SA Conference

Sharks:

Round 14 vs Crusaders (Away)
Round 15 vs Blues (Away)
Round 16 vs Stormers (Home)
Round 17 Bye
Round 18 vs Cheetahs (Away)
Round 19 vs Stormers (Away)

Bulls:

Round 14 Bye
Round 15 vs Brumbies (Home)
Round 16 vs Lions (Away)
Round 17 Bye
Round 18 vs Stormers (Away)
Round 19 vs Rebels (Home)

AUS Conference

Brumbies:

14 vs Cheetahs (Away)
15 vs Bulls (Away)
16 vs Rebels (Home)
17 vs Waratahs (Away)
18 Bye
19 vs Force (Home)

Waratahs:

14 vs Lions (Home)
15 vs Rebels (Away)
16 vs Chiefs (Away)
17 vs Brumbies (Home)
18 vs Highlanders (Home)
19 vs Reds (Away)

Force:

14 vs Stormers (Home)
15 vs Lions (Home)
16 vs Crusaders (Away)
17 vs Blues (Away)
18 vs Reds (Home)
19 vs Brumbies (Away)

IMO, Qualified teams will be: Sharks, Chiefs, Crusaders, Brumbies, Force and Waratahs or Hurricanes

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Well well well... With the Crusaders, Brumbies, Force and Hurricanes all losing matched to less fancied opposition, and the Chiefs not playing, only the Highlanders and Sharks made any inroads this weekend... Waratahs could change that, however.

 

[austingtir]

Amazing game next week against the Saders coming up for the HL!

 

[SomeOke]

I'd say Sharks, Brumbies and Chiefs are fairly obvious inclusions.
After that the Warratahs have favourable enough fixtures that I'd give them the nod.
Bulls will have to win every game with most of their opposition having played more games, so I don't think it's likely (but I really hope they squeak it to the point where I may have to support a Bulls win at Newlands for South Africas sake)
Highlanders and Hurricanes have really tough fixtures but one of them will probably get a spot.
Therefore I can only conclude that<s> the Stormers will get 5 points from all of their last 4 and sneak in a surprise place</s> the Crusaders being on form and with marginally easier fixtures will get the sixth spot, leaving the final positions as follows:

Sharks
Brumbies
Chiefs
Warratahs
Crusaders
Canes/Landers

 

[Darwin]

In no particular order:

Crusaders
Chiefs
Waratahs
Sharks
Brumbies
Bulls

 

[SomeOke]

In no particular order:

Crusaders
Chiefs
Waratahs
Sharks
Brumbies
Bulls

You pessimist . Mathematically you have a huge edge on the Bulls they sit on 28 with 4 games to play where as you guys sit on 34 with 5 games to play if anything the Highlanders are the most likely to nab a spot rather than the Bulls/Canes/Force.

 

[Darwin]

You pessimist . Mathematically you have a huge edge on the Bulls they sit on 28 with 4 games to play where as you guys sit on 34 with 5 games to play if anything the Highlanders are the most likely to nab a spot rather than the Bulls/Canes/Force.

I think I'm more of a realist. We do have a 6 point lead over the Bulls with a game in hand, but the Bulls have a much easier run home. I can realistically see the Bulls winning all 4 of their remaining matches - I suspect they will start all of these matches as favourites (though only slight favourites against the Brumbies and Stormers). In contrast I think the Highlanders will be very lucky to win more than one of our remaining matches (even winning one may prove a challenge). Our side has been decimated by injury in recent weeks, and we have a horror run home. We have the Crusaders twice (who despite the Sharks match have started to look in very ominous form), the Chiefs (the top team in our conference, who will also have Cruden back), the Waratahs in Sydney, and the Reds in Brisbane. The only game we may start as slight favourites is the against the Reds in Brisbane, but we have never had much success there.....

 

[ABs2011]

In no particular order:

Crusaders
Chiefs
Waratahs
Sharks
Brumbies
Bulls

I looked at this thread before this weeks games but didn't post.

At that time I was going to say that I thought the top 6 would have been:

Crusaders (Div Champ), Sharks (Div Champ),Waratahs (Div Champ),Chiefs, Brumbies & Hurricanes

BUT a couple surprises this week, namely, Landers over Canes, and Sharks over Crusaders, NOW I'd have to say:

Sharks (Div Champ), Chiefs (Div Champ), Waratahs (Div Champ),Crusaders, Brumbies & something tells me the Landers are gonna grab the 6 spot ....