Highlanders (if anyone cares.....):
1. Kane Hames, 2. Liam Coltman, 3. Ma'afu Fia, 4. Jarrad Hoeata, 5. Joe Wheeler, 6. Elliot Dixon, 7. Shane Christie, 8. Nasi Manu (co-captain), 9. Aaron Smith, 10. Hayden Parker, 11. Jason Emery, 12. Shaun Treeby, 13. Malakai Fekitoa, 14. Richard Buckman, 15. Ben Smith (co-captain).
Reserves: 16. Ged Robinson, 17. Matias Diaz, 18. Aki Seuli, 19. Tom Franklin, 20. Gareth Evans, 21. Fumiaki Tanaka, 22. Trent Renata, 23. Phil Burleigh.
Not too bad in my opinion (despite all the injuries). It is good to see Coltman back starting at hooker - Robinson always does a good job, but Coltman has the potential to offer even more. We do lose some mobility with King's suspension, but Fia will do a solid job in the scrum. Hoeata is back starting - I would have preferred to see Franklin start (as he looked good off the bench last week) but Joseph loves Hoeata like a son. I'm still not convinced about Dixon starting over Evans at 6 either, but it is good to see Christie back (I hope he is fully fit though!).
The backline is as expected. Parker played well last weekend, but he will have some bigger forwards and backs running at him this week. Emery did a pretty solid job on the wing too - it would be great to see him get a bit of space to move. I'm happy to see us go back to a more conventional 4/3 split on the bench too.
Overall I think the Canes should start this game as clear favourites. The Highlanders have performed pretty well this year but we have a number of injuries at the moment, and man for man the Canes are a much stronger side. I expect the scrums to be pretty even - the Otago props are less well known but are solid scrummagers (and Coltman is a very strong scrummaging hooker). The Canes should have an edge in the loose-forwards. Christie and Lam have both been in great form, but I think Levave is better than Dixon, and despite Manu playing consistently all year Vito offers even more for the Canes. The Canes also have Ardie Savea and Brad Shields on the bench......
Aaron Smith is in great form, but Perenara is starting to show some good signs too. It will be interesting to see how much pressure Perenara is able to put on Smith's delivery - I expect he will be able to disrupt Smith on a few occasions, but I expect he will get penalized a few times too. Barrett is on fire for the Canes at the moment. I quite like Parker, but Barrett is at a completely different level. The Canes have a slight edge in the midfield (due to Conrad Smith), but I do think they will miss Leiua's physicality. Despite the presence of Ben Smith the Canes have a huge advantage out wide too. Savea has been quieter in recent weeks but can tear any side apart at the moment, Jane is starting to show some good form, while Taylor is at his elusive best. If the Hurricanes get clean ball to their outside backs the Highlander will struggle to contain them - we need to either (a) stop them getting clean ball from the forwards, or (b) rush up in the midfield to shut them down (which Fekitoa can do on occasions). We need to be careful about of kicking game too - we either need to kick the ball out (and well out to prevent the quick throw-in) or make our kicks contestable, as the Canes have looked lethal on the counter-attack recently.
As much as I want the Highlanders to win I'm picking the Canes by 10-15 points.
