(nout a doble)
uhm, OK, have made up my mind. Let's look at the lineups here:
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Brian O'Driscoll, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Dave Kearney, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Peter O'Mahony, 5 Paul O'Connell (c), 4 Devin Toner, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Jack McGrath, 18 Martin Moore, 19 Dan Tuohy, 20 Tommy O'Donnell, 21 Isaac Boss, 22 Paddy Jackson, 23 Fergus McFadden.
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Scott Williams, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton, 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun-Wyn Jones (c), 4 Andrew Coombs, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Richard Hibbard, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Paul James, 18 Rhodri Jones, 19 Jake Ball, 20 Justin Tipuric, 21 Rhys Webb, 22 James Hook, 23 Liam Williams.
My simple observations:
Ireland are a bit like France. When they're expected to dominate they suck. Last year we both sucked, esp. in the 6N finishing 5th and 6th, and since the big game against NZ in Nov I feel Ireland are focused and ready to battle, for real. That home blowout against the Aussies was like a trigger, like, enough of this crap. I don't think Wales have it in them to win it 3 times in a row, it's exhausting mentally to fight for consecutive ***les and based on very recent form, Ireland are in rhythm, Wales not so much. Wales are very good, esp against their European rivals, but I think 2014 is the year their streak stops, and I believe it stops here, in Dublin.
Considering Ireland should've won the 2012 one if not for a disastrous give-away at the end against Wales, and looking at what happened last year, if there's any team in the 6N that is Wales' cryptonite it's clearly Ireland, and they're at home, and on form...
I see Ireland still contending mid-way through the tournament. It seems like we'll have a bit of a 2007 flashback with France and Ireland both on form and fighting for the ***le, but I may be talking a little fast for France.
Ireland by 5.