Who'll win the World Cup

[mj44]

ha ha, as someone with qualifications in advanced maths and statistics, your theory is flawed. nice try.


Only just saw this. If you think it is flawed then give an explanation. You probably don't deny the importance of probability in sporting events, so what do you disagree with? If the All Blacks are about 80% to win each of the knockout matches they'll only win 3 in a row half the time. Not that they should be 80% favourites vs the other top teams anyway.

 

[koeloe]

South Africa! NZ and AUS started to play well to early

 

[RC]

South Africa! NZ and AUS started to play well to early [/b]

Your theory is heavily flawed if you look at England's run up to the 03 world cup.

 

[Kiwi Londoner]

Its really impossible to predict a winner. Going by history, we can only predict a few things (Finn stated "History never repeats", just so you know, hes far from the truth):

-New Zealand will walk in as hot favourites, breeze through the pool stages by cricket scores, kicks arse in the Quarters and will return home in time to watch the Final on the tele.
-Australia will perform when it matters. Namely the Semi-Final.
-France. Unpredictable. The only word in the English language that describes French rugby.
-South Africa will create constroversy for the upteempth time.
-Ireland will return home short handed having missed the Semis, yet again.
-Argentina will perform well, but would be underdone by the short fixture, having to play four games in just two weeks. Slightly disadvantaged for the 'Pool of Death'.
-England struggle to win in the pool stages, but amazingly, makes the Semis.
-Wales struggles to beat the tier two nations convincingly, but yet go in against the 'big' boys with their tails' firmly up.
-Scotland put up a fight, but struggle to convince anyone they had a successful campaign.
-USA forget they're playing rugby.

 

[shtove]

Back to England - they've just thrashed Wales and it looks like things are coming together with the Wasps/Leicester combination in the pack.

Numbers 1-10 had strong games, but their big problem is at 12 with Andy Farrell, who is OK on defence but doesn't seem capable of unleashing the speedsters outside him. Mike Catt may be the answer, and then England really will start to worry the big boys.

 

[Thingimubob]

My guess:
-Group 1
I think, with their best XV Wales can beat teh Aussies in Cardiff, tehrefore topping the group
-Wallabies will put up a fight in Cardiff, go down in a close match but maybe pull themselves back in the quarters.
-Group 2
Yes, teh England forwards put up a brilliant display today against Wales, but teh South African forward seem to have that extra edge on them, so I reckon it'll be SA first, England Second
-Group 3
New Zealand top the group, no problem
Italians will edge the Scots out in St.Etienne
-Group 4
Not sure on this group. I reckon the Irish might, if they can push the French forwards back, can beat the hosts, but still, it'll be a very close game, so could go either way,
I reckon a quarter final place is waiting for the Argentines, but they've got overcome the fact that they're the 'underdogs' and perform as one of the world top 10

Not gonna make any predictions yet on the knock out stages and finals, want to see how the teams perform in the group stages first.

 

[Dddooommm123]

abit biased but i think australia will pull something out of the bag, great backline, great defense as long as larkham and co are injury free and i do rate our fowards they have improved heaps

 

[davidson]

ha ha, as someone with qualifications in advanced maths and statistics, your theory is flawed. nice try.


Only just saw this. If you think it is flawed then give an explanation. You probably don't deny the importance of probability in sporting events, so what do you disagree with? If the All Blacks are about 80% to win each of the knockout matches they'll only win 3 in a row half the time. Not that they should be 80% favourites vs the other top teams anyway.
[/b]

well i might say that .8 prob is actually relatively conservative against ANY other team.

even .8 being about right, if you factor (the remaining) .2 into any other teams chances they start
getting very slim... (and how many teams could really win it? 3,4?) but thats neither here nor there and im not going to quibble over imaginary odds
but i would say that bookmakers are giving odds around $1.60 for nz to win and $2.30 for any other nation to win.

 

[SPIDER18]

Back to England - they've just thrashed Wales and it looks like things are coming together with the Wasps/Leicester combination in the pack.

Numbers 1-10 had strong games, but their big problem is at 12 with Andy Farrell, who is OK on defence but doesn't seem capable of unleashing the speedsters outside him. Mike Catt may be the answer, and then England really will start to worry the big boys. [/b]

england beat an experimental welsh side and remember the proper welsh team isn't very good either. wait till they play the french before you say everythings alright. i don't care who's at 12 england will struggle to compete with the big four.

 

[Karmabass]

My moneys firmly on SA.. so much potential!

 

[ben...07]

I think the All Blacks have the team for win this world cup but I hope it 'll France who win!!!Go France go,go,go!!!

 

[shtove]

<div class='quotemain'> Back to England - they've just thrashed Wales and it looks like things are coming together with the Wasps/Leicester combination in the pack.
[/b]

england beat an experimental welsh side and remember the proper welsh team isn't very good either. wait till they play the french before you say everythings alright. i don't care who's at 12 england will struggle to compete with the big four.

[/b][/quote]

If Wales are still experimenting, then God help them.

England have a pack - that's all we need to know. If they can put it together with their outside backs, then that maybe more than we want to know.

And who are these Big Four of which you speak? Ireland, France, England and ... Australia?

 

[SPIDER18]

<div class='quotemain'> <div class='quotemain'> Back to England - they've just thrashed Wales and it looks like things are coming together with the Wasps/Leicester combination in the pack.
[/b]

england beat an experimental welsh side and remember the proper welsh team isn't very good either. wait till they play the french before you say everythings alright. i don't care who's at 12 england will struggle to compete with the big four.

[/b][/quote]

If Wales are still experimenting, then God help them.

England have a pack - that's all we need to know. If they can put it together with their outside backs, then that maybe more than we want to know.

And who are these Big Four of which you speak? Ireland, France, England and ... Australia? [/b][/quote]

if i was refering to france, eng,aus and ireland then i would be saying they can't compete with themselves-see why that doesn't work, my mentally challenged friend.it should be pretty obvious the big four are the best four teams in the world- sa,nz,aus and france. only france isn't a lock for the semis.

wales where experimenting and so were england so the 62-5 result is close to meaningless.

 

[timmyhoran]

I am confident Australia will win. There is a number of other teams who have a good chance. I can't see England winning. They've got nothing in the backs and their backrow is to slow. They do play tight five power rugby very well though.

 

[heggie]

heart Ireland, but for my head, i gotta go with Australia too

 

[Ripper]

<div class='quotemain'> <div class='quotemain'> Back to England - they've just thrashed Wales and it looks like things are coming together with the Wasps/Leicester combination in the pack.
[/b]

england beat an experimental welsh side and remember the proper welsh team isn't very good either. wait till they play the french before you say everythings alright. i don't care who's at 12 england will struggle to compete with the big four.

[/b][/quote]

If Wales are still experimenting, then God help them.

England have a pack - that's all we need to know. If they can put it together with their outside backs, then that maybe more than we want to know.

And who are these Big Four of which you speak? Ireland, France, England and ... Australia? [/b][/quote]



Sorry Shtove, to be part of the Big 4 you actually have to be able to beat Scotland by more than a solitary point.

Ireland's in the Group below - i.e the group full of the delusional fans who think losing to France at home is a better result than beating them by 44 points in the rain at Lyon.

 

[#13]

can't really see past NZ based on last few years, but said that in 2003...
Australia/France = likely alternatives.

SA might get to the Final but won't win it.
England to surprise people - Coco's got some right ideas in there.
Ireland to disappoint again
oh and Scotland to get beaten by Italy and run close by Portugal!

 

[shtove]

<div class='quotemain'> <div class='quotemain'> <div class='quotemain'> Back to England - they've just thrashed Wales and it looks like things are coming together with the Wasps/Leicester combination in the pack.
[/b]

england beat an experimental welsh side and remember the proper welsh team isn't very good either. wait till they play the french before you say everythings alright. i don't care who's at 12 england will struggle to compete with the big four.

[/b][/quote]

If Wales are still experimenting, then God help them.

England have a pack - that's all we need to know. If they can put it together with their outside backs, then that maybe more than we want to know.

And who are these Big Four of which you speak? Ireland, France, England and ... Australia? [/b][/quote]



Sorry Shtove, to be part of the Big 4 you actually have to be able to beat Scotland by more than a solitary point.

Ireland's in the Group below - i.e the group full of the delusional fans who think losing to France at home is a better result than beating them by 44 points in the rain at Lyon. [/b][/quote]

Wahay - RIPper returns! How many points are the ABs going to put on Scotland? And what will give substance to your predictions?

But to get back to the thread: wot u fink about England?

 

[KZNSharksFan]

New Zealand MUST win. If they dont win with this team, they will never win the RWC again and should be subsequently banned from the IRB for being a bunch of pillicks. Dan Carter is the best player alive, if not in history.Fullstop. You can scream about Wilkinson all you like but all he ever was and will be good at; is kicking the ball, he doesnt come close to Carter around the field. Not even close.

Having said that, I dont actually think those Kiwis will win it. SA, Aus and France are the only other realistic winners. Throw all bias, prejudice and hate of Australia out the window and this is the cold hard truth. And before you Poms, Scots, Welsh and Irish get on my case, I'm just going to say that the UK teams don't have a sh*ts show of a chance.

 

[sasnoz]

it has to be nz to win the only team to beat them will be the aussies so if any northren team wants a chance to win they betta hope mortlock stays injury free