Who'll win the World Cup

[TheFlyhalf]

Ireland

 

[Grandslam7805]

Wales

It will probably be New Zealand, because they are the best team in the world, and now they have a lot of depth.

 

[tomate]

It's sure South Africa will win

but new zeland is favorite

 

[shtove]

I'm getting a bit twitchety about England.

Leicester in the HEC semis and Wasps in the HEC final showed quality that's a notch above the S14. There are 11 Wasps players in England's 47 man squad - so combine their ball-killing cynicism with Leicester's go-forward power and England could outplay SA's pack.

The only edge SA have in the backs comes from the back three (Steyn, Percy and Habana). But if England use Farrell/Tindall/Noone in the centre, that should rule out any fancy attacking - from themselves and the opposition - and with an on-form Jonny at 10, the boot could do everything they need. Pienaar's another advantage, but England have three decent scrum-halfs, so chances are one will find form.

What I'm saying is that England can beat SA, and then all bets are off. They probably won't have enough time as a unit to tighten up and cut out crucial mistakes, but if luck goes their way the final will be in spitting distance.

Do I hear guffaws from the other end of the world?

 

[dobbin252]

South Africa will win with a drop goal in the final minuite from Percy Montgomerie in my opinion

 

[davidson]

<div class='quotemain'> <div class='quotemain'>
All Blacks are currently the team most likely to win it, but I think it is more likely another team will win it. Basically we're asking whether the All Blacks will go 3-0 vs three of the other top teams. Good chance, but its more likely they'd lose one and get knocked out. I don't care whether people realise it or not, there's not as much difference between the top teams as many make out. They're all capable of beating each other. It'll be tough for any team to win 3 in a row, even the ABs. It all really comes down to who hits form and gets lucky at the time.
[/b]

ha ha, as someone with qualifications in advanced maths and statistics, your theory is flawed. nice try. [/b][/quote]

Actually, he's right.
[/b][/quote]


he may be right in the sense that i cannot be certain nz will win the world cup but his logic is flawed.
evert team must win three games in a row. to state that a teams odds of winning three descreet games are lengthened by having to play three top teams in fair enough. but the winner will have to play and beat three top teams INCLUDING the all blacks. so again you come back to who is most likely to win three games in a row? well, id say that the bookmakers favourites are probably the most likely.

 

[SPIDER18]

<div class='quotemain'> i know we are regarded as chokers but i mean where do irish and french supporters get the right to bag the allblacks when their own records are so average. [/b]

Good point, but logic has no place in a rugby forum.

You see Ireland and France arent expected to win the world cup. If we lose, its because we werent good enough. If you lose its becuase you choked.
Its all fairly simple really. I dont understand why your NZ'ers dont get it. [/b][/quote] i understand it just annoys me.

 

[Ripper]

I'm getting a bit twitchety about England.

Leicester in the HEC semis and Wasps in the HEC final showed quality that's a notch above the S14. There are 11 Wasps players in England's 47 man squad - so combine their ball-killing cynicism with Leicester's go-forward power and England could outplay SA's pack.

The only edge SA have in the backs comes from the back three (Steyn, Percy and Habana). But if England use Farrell/Tindall/Noone in the centre, that should rule out any fancy attacking - from themselves and the opposition - and with an on-form Jonny at 10, the boot could do everything they need. Pienaar's another advantage, but England have three decent scrum-halfs, so chances are one will find form.

What I'm saying is that England can beat SA, and then all bets are off. They probably won't have enough time as a unit to tighten up and cut out crucial mistakes, but if luck goes their way the final will be in spitting distance.

Do I hear guffaws from the other end of the world? [/b]

LOLZA.



I'm not sure what's sadder - You counting England as serious contenders, or banking on Brian Carney allowing the Irish to Counter Attack like the All Blacks.

 

[mimic]

<div class='quotemain'>
<div class='quotemain'> <div class='quotemain'>
All Blacks are currently the team most likely to win it, but I think it is more likely another team will win it. Basically we're asking whether the All Blacks will go 3-0 vs three of the other top teams. Good chance, but its more likely they'd lose one and get knocked out. I don't care whether people realise it or not, there's not as much difference between the top teams as many make out. They're all capable of beating each other. It'll be tough for any team to win 3 in a row, even the ABs. It all really comes down to who hits form and gets lucky at the time.
[/b]

ha ha, as someone with qualifications in advanced maths and statistics, your theory is flawed. nice try. [/b][/quote]

Actually, he's right.
[/b][/quote]


he may be right in the sense that i cannot be certain nz will win the world cup but his logic is flawed.
evert team must win three games in a row. to state that a teams odds of winning three descreet games are lengthened by having to play three top teams in fair enough. but the winner will have to play and beat three top teams INCLUDING the all blacks. so again you come back to who is most likely to win three games in a row? well, id say that the bookmakers favourites are probably the most likely. [/b][/quote]

You're looking at it all wrong.
He's saying that the probability of a team that's not the All Blacks has a greater chance of winning the RWC than the All Blacks.

Considering the All Blacks need to win 3 tough matches, individually, they have a probability to win a game. You'd have to multiply each probability.

ie. (Probability of winning quarter final) x (Probability of winning semifinal) x (Probability of winning final)
Generally, the probabilities get smaller the further they go through the tournament.
eg. 0.90 x 0.70 x 0.60 = 0.378

You can clearly see just by looking at that, the All Blacks chances of winning the RWC is less than 0.5, which means a team that's not the All Blacks has a better chance.
If you don't believe me, you can try putting in different numbers. The probabilities would have to be extremely high for them to have a chance better than 0.5 to win the RWC.

At least that what I think he's trying to say. I don't have any qualifications in stats

 

[SPIDER18]

I'm getting a bit twitchety about England.

Leicester in the HEC semis and Wasps in the HEC final showed quality that's a notch above the S14. There are 11 Wasps players in England's 47 man squad - so combine their ball-killing cynicism with Leicester's go-forward power and England could outplay SA's pack.

The only edge SA have in the backs comes from the back three (Steyn, Percy and Habana). But if England use Farrell/Tindall/Noone in the centre, that should rule out any fancy attacking - from themselves and the opposition - and with an on-form Jonny at 10, the boot could do everything they need. Pienaar's another advantage, but England have three decent scrum-halfs, so chances are one will find form.

What I'm saying is that England can beat SA, and then all bets are off. They probably won't have enough time as a unit to tighten up and cut out crucial mistakes, but if luck goes their way the final will be in spitting distance.

Do I hear guffaws from the other end of the world? [/b]

there is no proof hec is above super14 :%#%#:

 

[QKXV]

<div class='quotemain'> I'm getting a bit twitchety about England.

Leicester in the HEC semis and Wasps in the HEC final showed quality that's a notch above the S14. There are 11 Wasps players in England's 47 man squad - so combine their ball-killing cynicism with Leicester's go-forward power and England could outplay SA's pack.

The only edge SA have in the backs comes from the back three (Steyn, Percy and Habana). But if England use Farrell/Tindall/Noone in the centre, that should rule out any fancy attacking - from themselves and the opposition - and with an on-form Jonny at 10, the boot could do everything they need. Pienaar's another advantage, but England have three decent scrum-halfs, so chances are one will find form.

What I'm saying is that England can beat SA, and then all bets are off. They probably won't have enough time as a unit to tighten up and cut out crucial mistakes, but if luck goes their way the final will be in spitting distance.

Do I hear guffaws from the other end of the world? [/b]

there is no proof hec is above super14 :%#%#: [/b][/quote]

Just like there's no conclusive proof the S14 is above HEC.

I agree with Stove in as far as England not being dead and buried, infact I believe they might be the upset of the tournament seeing as everyone has written them off completely by the looks of it. I trust though SA sees England as a real challenge like they always have, that's why White didn't rest the key players during the English visit to set up a pshycoligical advantage for the Pools as England is sort of SA's bogey man.

Shtove you forget to mention that along with the already inform Pienaar the BOk also has Du Preez as well who has always hit form very early on in tournaments, so technically the point about one of England's 3 scumhalfs possibly hitting form is not that much of a golden egg really. But yes, England can certainly beat SA with the right gameplan and a little luck.

 

[shtove]

No proof that the HEC is above S14. And those competitions don't convert to the international game anyway.



But the two performances I'm talking about were clearly better in every aspect of play than anything else in the HEC (apart from Stade Francais) and anything down south.



The point is that Leicester and Wasps have a lot of players - especially in the forwards - who will be the boss men for England in a few weeks time. Combine their abilities in a proper team, and hey presto.



Brian Carney running from deep - he's not going to get much of an opportunity, because Ireland's set up is conservative. But why would Ripper laugh at the idea - twice? Carney is fast, powerful and smart. Look at it as a compliment to the ABs.

 

[SPIDER18]

No proof that the HEC is above S14. And those competitions don't convert to the international game anyway.



But the two performances I'm talking about were clearly better in every aspect of play than anything else in the HEC (apart from Stade Francais) and anything down south.



The point is that Leicester and Wasps have a lot of players - especially in the forwards - who will be the boss men for England in a few weeks time. Combine their abilities in a proper team, and hey presto.



Brian Carney running from deep - he's not going to get much of an opportunity, because Ireland's set up is conservative. But why would Ripper laugh at the idea - twice? Carney is fast, powerful and smart. Look at it as a compliment to the ABs.

[/b]

if sa can match their form at home when the play against england this is a no brainer but obviously this is a huge if. not resting players had nothing to do with physcolocial advantage he wanted his team to be ready for the 3nations and then made changes against samoa to give key players a rest the week before the aussie game. south africas fowards will be better around the field and at lineouts their concern will be an unstable scrum. wilkinson isn't going to miraculously make england good again.they still have no midfield and a lack of direction with ball in hand(unless kicking).if they win against sa it'll be through penalties.

 

[paco1]

This time , New Zealand, at last

 

[SPIDER18]

This time , New Zealand, at last [/b]

i'm keeping my fingers crossed.

 

[shtove]

if sa can match their form at home when the play against england this is a no brainer but obviously this is a huge if. not resting players had nothing to do with physcolocial advantage he wanted his team to be ready for the 3nations and then made changes against samoa to give key players a rest the week before the aussie game. south africas fowards will be better around the field and at lineouts their concern will be an unstable scrum. wilkinson isn't going to miraculously make england good again.they still have no midfield and a lack of direction with ball in hand(unless kicking).if they win against sa it'll be through penalties. [/b]

Yeah, SA have a big advantage in the backrow, but then England have Delagllio to screw up everyone's plans. The SA scrum is good, it's just that other teams have enough to hold it, and SA get a bit lost when that happens. England will front up there, and probably in the lineout as well.

Jonny doesn't need to be miraculous at 10 - give him decent ball and he'll do what he's always done.

SA's big problem is nobody at home in the 10 position.

I'm guessing NOT a no brainer, whichever SA team turns up.

 

[Ripper]

No proof that the HEC is above S14. And those competitions don't convert to the international game anyway.



But the two performances I'm talking about were clearly better in every aspect of play than anything else in the HEC (apart from Stade Francais) and anything down south.



The point is that Leicester and Wasps have a lot of players - especially in the forwards - who will be the boss men for England in a few weeks time. Combine their abilities in a proper team, and hey presto.



Brian Carney running from deep - he's not going to get much of an opportunity, because Ireland's set up is conservative. But why would Ripper laugh at the idea - twice? Carney is fast, powerful and smart. Look at it as a compliment to the ABs.

[/b]

Because it's hilarious, Carney was an average to above average League Player would struggle to gain a starting place in any NZ Super 14 Franchise except the Highlanders. He's not that powerful or fast, I guess it's just a case of there is Irish Speed and Power and than theres Polynesian Speed and Power.

 

[shtove]

<div class='quotemain'>Brian Carney running from deep - he's not going to get much of an opportunity, because Ireland's set up is conservative. But why would Ripper laugh at the idea - twice? Carney is fast, powerful and smart. Look at it as a compliment to the ABs.

[/b]

Because it's hilarious, Carney was an average to above average League Player would struggle to gain a starting place in any NZ Super 14 Franchise except the Highlanders. He's not that powerful or fast, I guess it's just a case of there is Irish Speed and Power and than theres Polynesian Speed and Power.

[/b][/quote]
Don't think many will agree with the "average to above average" assessment. Are you putting him down because he's from RL or from Ireland? And you're using S14 as a benchmark!

Anyway, you talk about Speed and Power ... but you left out the Smart bit of the equation. Not an NZ strength, granted.

The pity is that none of this can be tested, because Ireland won't meet the ABs in the RWC - you'll be filet-mignon for France in the quarters.

 

[Ripper]

<div class='quotemain'> <div class='quotemain'>Brian Carney running from deep - he's not going to get much of an opportunity, because Ireland's set up is conservative. But why would Ripper laugh at the idea - twice? Carney is fast, powerful and smart. Look at it as a compliment to the ABs.

[/b]

Because it's hilarious, Carney was an average to above average League Player would struggle to gain a starting place in any NZ Super 14 Franchise except the Highlanders. He's not that powerful or fast, I guess it's just a case of there is Irish Speed and Power and than theres Polynesian Speed and Power.

[/b][/quote]
Don't think many will agree with the "average to above average" assessment. Are you putting him down because he's from RL or from Ireland? And you're using S14 as a benchmark!

Anyway, you talk about Speed and Power ... but you left out the Smart bit of the equation. Not an NZ strength, granted.

The pity is that none of this can be tested, because Ireland won't meet the ABs in the RWC - you'll be filet-mignon for France in the quarters. [/b][/quote]



I think many will agree with that assessment - go to the League Forum and look for the topic on when he retired from League for various opinions on his League Prowess. And i'm putting him down because he's not up to Southern Hempisphere Outside Backs standards.

And of course Ireland won't be facing the All Blacks - for that to happen Ireland would actually have to win a game that mattered, something Ireland has proved that they cannot do, whether it be in the 6 Nations or the RWC - So in other words your predicting Argentina to take the Pool? Interesting Choice.

And the French? :bana: Oh thats gold, please don't tell me there foward pack is going to bully us around again, I still have nightmares about that unbreakable defence which McAlister and Sivivatu shredded up like paper last year as the All Blacks won by 44 points in the rain (Ireland meanwhile couldn't even beat the French at Home.)

For a start you spell doom and gloom for the Boks for a lack of a Fly Half, where the French just seem to have been cycling around 20 Year Olds and Half Backs the previous four years.

 

[SPIDER18]

<div class='quotemain'> <div class='quotemain'>Brian Carney running from deep - he's not going to get much of an opportunity, because Ireland's set up is conservative. But why would Ripper laugh at the idea - twice? Carney is fast, powerful and smart. Look at it as a compliment to the ABs.

[/b]

Because it's hilarious, Carney was an average to above average League Player would struggle to gain a starting place in any NZ Super 14 Franchise except the Highlanders. He's not that powerful or fast, I guess it's just a case of there is Irish Speed and Power and than theres Polynesian Speed and Power.

[/b][/quote]
Don't think many will agree with the "average to above average" assessment. Are you putting him down because he's from RL or from Ireland? And you're using S14 as a benchmark!

Anyway, you talk about Speed and Power ... but you left out the Smart bit of the equation. Not an NZ strength, granted.

The pity is that none of this can be tested, because Ireland won't meet the ABs in the RWC - you'll be filet-mignon for France in the quarters. [/b][/quote] he uses the super 14 as the benchmark because it has most of the best outside backs in the world.nz has never lost a quarter final and be it against ireland arg or france that won't change this year.