Yeah, I feel awful for Priestland.
I was critical of his form, but I hated seeing him jeered by 'fans'. He was very obviously in the wrong state of mind, yet Howley kept picking him.
This was the big error. Picking a player regardless of him playing awfully and admits himself to being in a bad state when Biggar was available and in much better form was a very simple move. It seems trying to get Priestland to play himself out of his dire form just backfired and it just got worse.
Japan love that loop play. I don't think our midfield will give them enough time though. One or two direct runners flooding in should be enough.
Draggs, I don't see your logic about "direct runners". What type of centre do you think Tonga or Samoa had? To give you a clue one of them had the surname "Kefu".
Japan used set play moves a lot against Samoa and Tonga last year, but hardly used them at all against Romania and Georgia, using more of less structured gameplan and more of pass and dart gameplan which focused more on quick ball than anything else. This try against Georgia was the best example of their attacking strategy (note the 7 is actually massively offside to create the turnover here). Although it didn't click quite as well as it did here in general as Georgia had a man in the sin bin on this try, but they did generate penalties from it.
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To add to that, backline moves like that can only be run on front foot ball. Do that before first going forwards and Wales will just smash them behind the gainline. Just look at the Scarlets trying to go wide without first going forwards through their forwards. Good defences easily deal with it by either blitzing and not allowing the time for fancy loop moves, or drifting and picking up the looped player wider out.
If Wales give Japan that much space Edwards would probably commit suicide, or more likely butcher the entire Welsh team in some messy killing spree.
Dullonien, looking at the sides that have had more success breaking down the Welsh defence this season it has been all been sides going wide. Australia, Argentina and Ireland all profited from stretching the backline with passing rather than crash ball tactics.
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When England and France attempted to take on Wales' defence at crash ball tactics with crash ball centres, Wales dealt with it easily. Tuilagi, one of the most dynamic line busters about, failed to anything out of Roberts' defence. Samoa are the only team who come on top of Wales at their own game physically.
Whilst actually though, England's best chances were created by going wide and trying to stretch the Welsh defence in that game. However because the centres they had skillsets were more weighted in favour of line breaking and boshing, they didn't have the passing and distributing skills to make the chances they had going wide count, with Tuilagi fumbling a chance and ignoring an overlap later on (note guess which forward is hanging out on the wing as per usual in the second GIF
). In hindsight, England would have been better advised to have played Twelvetrees in the midfield with Tuilagi to offer that passing game to make the opportunities out wide count better.
The point I am trying to make is that a passing wide game is proven to be a more successful way of breaking down Wales' defence this season. Also note that none of Australia, Argentina or Ireland were dominating up front.
And Japan's attacking play (which is ahead of 6 Nations sides Italy and Scotland's), seems to be the ideal style based on previous matches to counter Wales's defensive system.
Meanwhile whilst Japan's attack is better than some Tier 1 sides, the same cannot be said of defence, it's not really to do with size necessarily as Argentina shut Wales down with much smaller backs, but technique and bravery is lacking amongst some Japanese backs and this cost has cost them games against the Pacific Islanders. So Wales' attacking plan is also proven to be an effective strategy to take on Japan.
So with the high 20 degree heat, and both attacks ideal to combat the others weaknesses, I predict a high scoring game. With Wales' superior experience (in terms of top level matches not international caps) giving them the advantage.
In general, Tier 2 sides need to gain experience of playing these sides before beating them, see Italy in the 6 Nations for example they needed seasons of losing against the likes of France before they beat them, this is also why I strongly believe that some Tier 2 sides have been given enough exposure in recent years against the likes of Italy and Scotland.
Liam Williams -> Daniel Evans (I'd say Fussell but we know how that will go...)
They will more likely pick some 6 foot 4 inch kid just out of school from the Principality Premiership for a back three player.
With regards to Japanese passing. That is all well and good in their tournament, but I would fancy our defence putting much more pressure on them than Samoa, etc. (Ignore November, we all know many things were at play there). Scott Williams' defence has been improving (remember that hit he did early on against Argentina? GIF?) and Beck is decent as well. Our blitz can shut them down or force them to go deeper than usual. It will be a much more difficult task for them to put width on the ball and make good gains.
Hang on, Samoa outplayed two 6 Nations sides last year one of which was the 6 Nations champions. Tonga beat Scotland as well. I think there is strong evidence that Samoa side in that match with the likes of Fotuali'i at 9, Taulafo, Mulipola and Johnston at prop, Paulo at hooker, Tekori at lock, Fa'asavalu at flanker, Paul Williams at centre, Lemi at wing all of whom apart from the injured Mulipola played roles in beating a stronger Wales in November, would be stronger and favourites against this Wales team that is playing this June.
So I don't quite understand your "it might work against Samoa" point Draggs.
