V Bookie: Super15 R12 Stormers - Crusaders

[TRF_stormer2010]

S15 week 12 Stormers vs Crusaders

Newlands, Cape Town
Saturday, 17h05 local time


DHL Stormers: 15 Conrad Jantjes, 14 Johann Sadie, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Gio Aplon, 10 Lionel Cronje, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Schalk Burger (captain), 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Rynardt Elstadt, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 Deon Fourie, 1 Wicus Blaauw.
Replacements: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Brok Harris, 18 De Kock Steenkamp, 19 Nick Koster, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Kurt Coleman, 22 Juan De Jongh.


Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Matt Berquist, 9 Kahn Fotuali'i, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 George Whitelock, 5 Chris Jack, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Andrew Olorenshaw, 18 Joe Wheeler, 19 Matt Todd, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Tom Marshall, 22 Adam Whitelock.


Both these teams are without their 1st choice flyhalves but are welcoming other stalwarts back. The home team have conceded only 6 tries in the seaon so far and are the leading defensive team, miles ahead of the other challengers (Waratahs & Sharks) while the Crusaders have at times looked to be scoring tries at will and are the team with the most tries scored (36), 6 more than 2nd most (Blues & Reds). While both teams are deadly on the counterattack, the Crusaders have been looking to run the ball and gain forward momentum with hard running and good supporting play. The Stormers have looked to strangle opposition on the other hand and it will be interesting to see which team gets the upper hand in this encounter.

My money is on the home team. Just.

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

V bookie added

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Thanks Ezequiel.

Okay, I've put my money (vCash LOL) where my mouth is. And I'm holding thumbs that Cronje has a better day with kicking at goal than against the Sharks, sheesh!!

 

[Icemn]

Crusaders!!!!!! ALL BLACKS YOU BEAUTY

 

[SBW12]

I think the Crusaders will just sneak a win..

 

[Icemn]

yoh Stormers2010 put all his lifesaving into this game and into the stormers

 

[Amobokoboko]

Crusaders will trash them. It's nearly a complete AB line up.

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

Don't underestimate the Stormers. They play at Newlands, only conceded a handful of tries after 11 weeks and have a backline as deadly as the Crusaders have

 

[Amobokoboko]

But Richie returns ;-)

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

Who doesn't make a fairly wonderful impression so far. It all depends on if Carter and Grant are playing

 

[Amobokoboko]

I don't knowif cater is starting but as long as SBW doesn't need to box they will do well.

 

[Darwin]

Great to see McCaw back at 7, but I am slightly disappointed that the Crusaders choose to bench Todd, rather than George Whitelock, to accommodate him. I'm sure it's just a case of resting Todd (who has started every match this year so far), and I'd be very surprised if he doesn't start next week. I just think since they are playing against the Stormers (who have a very good loose-trio) they should play their strongest team (and Todd is a much better player than George Whitelock).

It's unfortunate that both first choice 10's are out injured, but there are some good match-ups all over the park, so it should be a great game to watch. The Crusaders have a better starting front row in my opinion, as both Franks and Crockett have been outstanding this season, and Flynn looks to be getting back to his best over the last few weeks. van der Linde is a very good player, and Dean Fourie looks good in the loose (though I'm yet to be convinced with his play in the tight) and Blaauw is a solid player, but I suspect they may struggle at scrum time against the Crusaders front row. The Stormers do certainly have much better replacements on the bench though, with both Brok Harris and Tiaan Liebenberg very good players.

Chris Jack will have a big test at lock against Bekker; if Jack can perform well he could again strengthen his case for an AB's recall. Rynardt Elstadt has really impressed me this year, while Luke Romano has also looked good for the Crusaders, especially his powerful ball running. The loose-forwards look pretty evenly matched, I particularly like the way the Stormers loosies work as a combination.

I think the Crusaders may have a slight edge in the halves, though that may be due to the fact I don't know much about Lionel Cronje (apart from seeing him in a few Under 20 matches). The midfield battle will probably be the highlight for me, as I can't wait to see how SBW goes against the world class pair of de Villers and Fourie. I'm surprised Fruean hasn't been given a rest yet by the Crusaders, but I suspect he won't get much more than half a game this week.

Out wide is the area I think the Crusaders have quite a big edge. Aplon v Maitland should be a good battle, with Maitland power and speed versus Aplon elusiveness. I'm predicting Guildford will cause Sadie all sorts of problems, as Guildford has been on fire over the last few weeks. Not sure about Sadie's pace (I understand he plays a lot a centre), but I expect be a few kicks put in behind him for Guildford to chase. Dagg could be a key to unlocking the Stormers defense with his elusive running - when the Stormers kick they are going to have to kick it out, or come up in a line in defense otherwise the Crusaders back three could cut them to pieces.

Overall I'm expecting it to be a very close game, with the Crusaders to take it by less than 7.

 

[Larksea]

I bet on the crusaders by 8+
McCaw and Read both back, I'm not confident though because Carter, Sam Whitelock and Brad Thorn are all out for the saders and Fruen & Sonny bill look like they need a rest.

Plus the stormers have hardly travelled all season and by contrast because of the earthquake the crusaders haven't even had one proper home game. And I'm sure that counts for a lot.

This game is critical to the crusaders chances this season though. NZ teams need to make sure they dont give South Africa home advantage for the finals because it's such a huge boost for them playing at home.

 

[Bossco]

Most pundits seem to be picking the Stormers.

No question that the Crusaders have the superior and more talented attacking backline player for player, coupled with with better coaching, moves and tactics whereas the Stormers are the defensive gods of the comp.

Don't think the Crusaders without Carter and Ellis will be adaptable enough if their running game doesn't progress and the pressure comes on. You've gotta be able to switch to what the Reds were doing so that the Stormers defense doesn't dictate the game, and Berquist and Fotuali are definately no Cooper and Genia.

Won't be a big margin due to the Stormers limitations on attack but would pick them by 10.

 

[Darwin]

Most pundits seem to be picking the Stormers.

No question that the Crusaders have the superior and more talented attacking backline player for player, coupled with with better coaching, moves and tactics whereas the Stormers are the defensive gods of the comp.

Don't think the Crusaders without Carter and Ellis will be adaptable enough if their running game doesn't progress and the pressure comes on. You've gotta be able to switch to what the Reds were doing so that the Stormers defense doesn't dictate the game, and Berquist and Fotuali are definately no Cooper and Genia.

Won't be a big margin due to the Stormers limitations on attack but would pick them by 10.

I agree that the Stormers defense will be a big challenge for the Crusaders without Ellis and Carter. The Crusaders do however have a couple of players in SBW and Israel Dagg who are capable of creating something out of nothing, no matter now good the oppositions defense is. The Crusaders have probably been most dangerous this year counter attacking from opposition kicks, with Maitland, Guildford, and Dagg all looking very dangerous with the ball in hand. I don't think the Crusaders will score that many tries, but I can't see the Stormers scoring that many either. The game may well come down to goal kicking....

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Lionel Cronje for the Stormers is decent enough and doens't disrupt the gameplan too much (in fact he adds a little distance off the boot though his distribution and defense doesn't match grant yet) but where he seriously needs to step up is with kicking at goal. This is certainly going to be a tight affair and part of the reason why the Stormers won 42-14 last year was because of early pressure through getting onto the board early.

For me the Crusaders shade it in the front row (though at the 50 minute mark with subs I think we should be able to match them) and the back three. The question though is if they can adapt to the Stormers. For me the Stormers fair well against NZ sides precisely because they back themselves in a running game and when they start to go backwards while attacking there is little to fall back on. Aussie team seem to have our number though through taking the ball wide as fast as possible, making the yards there and getting to the ball first IE taking the contact area away from where the Stormers are strong and putting a lot of focus on field position as well.

That said, the Crusaders in SBW and Dagg the 'Saders do have the keys to potentially unlock even as stingy a defense as the Stormers'. Going to be a cracker either way!

 

[Cassie]

I have my reasons which opts me going for Stormers by less than 7.

 

[Icemn]

Lionel Cronje for the Stormers is decent enough and doens't disrupt the gameplan too much (in fact he adds a little distance off the boot though his distribution and defense doesn't match grant yet) but where he seriously needs to step up is with kicking at goal. This is certainly going to be a tight affair and part of the reason why the Stormers won 42-14 last year was because of early pressure through getting onto the board early.

For me the Crusaders shade it in the front row (though at the 50 minute mark with subs I think we should be able to match them) and the back three. The question though is if they can adapt to the Stormers. For me the Stormers fair well against NZ sides precisely because they back themselves in a running game and when they start to go backwards while attacking there is little to fall back on. Aussie team seem to have our number though through taking the ball wide as fast as possible, making the yards there and getting to the ball first IE taking the contact area away from where the Stormers are strong and putting a lot of focus on field position as well.

That said, the Crusaders in SBW and Dagg the 'Saders do have the keys to potentially unlock even as stingy a defense as the Stormers'. Going to be a cracker either way!

yes i'm going to watch the game tomorrow....and i expect the stormers to park the bus as usual...apply the pressure (rushing defence)...wait for mistakes and counter attack....

that is how they play week in week out....the fans seem to like it cuz its a win......a win at any cost.....i'm sorry but i have high standards

that is why a bulls vs stormer game is so boring....

hopefuly the Saders can provide some exciting running rugby for a change...its the only time you'll see me at newlands.....last time i was there was when Manchester United played

 

[SBW12]

McCaw is out Not Good!!

 

[Darwin]

McCaw is out Not Good!!

Yeah, looks like he has failed to recover from a head knock he took against the Force. Not good for McCaw, as he really needs to get back to playing some rugby....

Losing McCaw is strangely not a huge loss for the Crusaders. McCaw has only just come back from a long injury lay off, and is still nowhere near his best, whereas the Matt Todd (who has replaced him) has been a standout all season. It will certainly be a good test for Todd against Burger and Louw, but I think he will be more than up to the task.