Toeava vs. Ben Smith

Larksea · May 2, 2011

interesting stats, only part of the picture though. Highlanders being a more forward orentated team. Toeava has consistantly been the top of the super14 in running metres but that's pretty impressive from smith too which is basically 2nd equal with dagg and ranger as I'm sure those guys would all be within each others margin for error in the statistics.

Also interesting that the list is totally dominated by NZ players.

Kiwiwomble · May 2, 2011

woodward said:
It seemed like you meant it was 60/40 except for the experience factor which apart from being probably not quite right as many would agree Toeava has been one of the best backs in the comp, the cartel generally don't select on form. Toeava is experienced because this same coaching panel gave him international experience, there is no way they would change their minds based on a couple of weeks form especially when hes had the edge all season before that.

I wont reply again after this as you dont seem to read what i say, I said I think they will take Toeava...pretty simple, there was no need to go on your rant to prove a point I agreed with

I think the stats and you opinion under sell smith slightly though, I dare anyone to say its not easier to look good surrounded by all blacks, how many in the blues backline compared with the highlanders? and smith has looked fantastic all season not just the last couple of games so to say any call to take him is based on that is once again under selling.

Larksea · May 2, 2011

yeah I was going to point out that Toeava is surounded by all blacks at the blues, smith isn't.

Toeava's a very good player but IMO Smith is in better form overall for this season though it is close this last game really tipped the scales in Smiths favour. Toeava does have an advantage at the blues in playing outside the likes of Brett, McAlister & Payne - the latter two in particular are in pretty awesome form.

One of the more impressive parts of Toeava's game this season has been his combination with Ranger. Toeava kinda dances with the defence, draws defenders and sets ranger free and rangers hard straight running really complements Toeava's deceptive swerve and ability to get the defence standing on their heals.

Shaggy · May 2, 2011

I'd by happy with either Smith or Toeava in the All Black squad to be honest

... On a slightly different tangent, i'm surprised that the All Black selectors haven't "encouraged" their Super Rugby counterparts to give the goal kicking responsibilities for some games, to their fullbacks. I know Dagg is a goal kicker, and could have been trialled while Carter has been out injured - this could ease the pressure in finding Carter's AB backup, if who ever it is doesn't have to be the goal kicker as well

Darwin · May 2, 2011

woodward said:
It seemed like you meant it was 60/40 except for the experience factor which apart from being probably not quite right as many would agree Toeava has been one of the best backs in the comp, the cartel generally don't select on form. Toeava is experienced because this same coaching panel gave him international experience, there is no way they would change their minds based on a couple of weeks form especially when hes had the edge all season before that. I would say Toeava could play like **** the rest of S15 and still make the 3N squad ahead of Ben Smith.
Interestingly Toeava is still ahead on running metres
1. Isaia Toeava (Blues) 934
2. Israel Dagg (Crusaders) 810
3. Rene Ranger (Blues) 803
4. Ben Smith (Highlanders) 800
5. Willem Alberts (Sharks) 730
6. Doppies la Grange (Lions) 693
7. Digby Ioane (Reds) 689
8. Lelia Masaga (Chiefs) 686
9. Kade Poki (Highlanders) 672
10. Sitiveni Sivivatu (Chiefs) 671
he's 5th in try assists (Ben Smith nowhere to be seen), tied on 7 linebreaks with Smith and in the top 20 for linebreak assists Smith again not on the list. I will have to confess my ignorance as to how many games Smith has played this season, if hes missed quite a few it would explain him not featuring as prominently in the stats as the other contenders. Israel Dagg for example is second to only Toeava for run metres, 3rd on the try scoring list, 3rd for try assists, 7th for linebreaks and 8th for offloads. Very impressive reading for a player considered not quite on top of his game.

So what these stats basically say is that Toeava, Dagg, and Smith all have made a similar number of linebreaks, and have run similar metres (with Toeava perhaps having a slight edge here). You will find these stats will vary quite a bit between different sources, but all the stats I've seen have suggested they have similar attacking stats, though Toeava and Dagg can have a slight edge in some cases. As others have pointed out, this could very well be attributed to them playing in much more attacking teams.

What hasn't been included here is the number of errors each player has made - this is where Smith really stands out. These stats weren't included in the site where I assume you got the stats from (http://www.thescore.com.au/rugby/super15/player-stats.html?refresh=1304370081699). However this site, suggests that Ben Smith has conceded 22 turnovers, Dagg 49, and Toeava 47, i.e Ben Smith has conceded under half the number of turnovers as Dagg/Toeava, despite having similar attacking stats. I have no idea what this site consider a 'turnover' to be, but the stats seem pretty compelling to me...

Shaggy said:
I'd by happy with either Smith or Toeava in the All Black squad to be honest

... On a slightly different tangent, i'm surprised that the All Black selectors haven't "encouraged" their Super Rugby counterparts to give the goal kicking responsibilities for some games, to their fullbacks. I know Dagg is a goal kicker, and could have been trialled while Carter has been out injured - this could ease the pressure in finding Carter's AB backup, if who ever it is doesn't have to be the goal kicker as well

Yeah I too would have liked to see Dagg kicking when Carter has been out. I don't know that Ben Smith has done much goal-kicking, but I think he should spend some time on it. I've seen him nail 45m drop goals in club games, and he looks like a natural kicker of the ball.

dan the man · May 2, 2011

Yeah totally agree about the kicking... There are very few players on the NZ scene that i'd feel comfortable giving the kicking duties to at international level, obviously Carter is top dog, then it would be Weepu but after those two it's pretty bleak considering that McAlistar is leaving at the end of the year. Dagg should definitely work on his goal kicking as he did this well for the Highlanders last season. Looking at the Aussie team, they almost have too may quality goal kickers to choose from with Giteau, Cooper, Beale, O'Connor and Barnes...

Larksea · May 3, 2011

that turnover stat is very telling. Without actually knowing what the stats were I would have said Smith was clearly better but the fact it's less than Half Dagg or Toeava is pretty awesome.

That stats utility on the allblacks site is pretty good. I couldn't help but get the stats up side by side for Read, Kaino, Messam, Vito & Thompson

Obviously Thompson has been impressive but the only stat of his that really sticks out is the fact he's scored 6 trys. Also the number of tackles he makes is impressive though less tackles than Messam overall he's had less gametime so his rate is slightly higher than Messam. Messam is either better or about equal best best in all other stats and has no weak areas.

Also interestingly he's played every minute of every game so far - the only one if this bunch to do so. A real strong area for him - he almost stands alone in NZ rugby as a guy who just never seems to be injured or even hampered by injury. Impressive considering he obviously gets through a huge workload considering his stats.

Read's dicipline has been impressive with only one penalty in almost 500min of gametime - messam is next best and this is a major problem area for thompson who is about twice as likely to concede a penalty than messam. More so considering Thompson is not on the top 20 list for Most Pilfers.
Messam has only conceded one more turnover than the others even though he's had more than a whole game or much more gametime.
Messam has a lot more hitups and linebreaks than the others, and leads the whole competition in pick n' drive with 26 (next best in this group isn't even in the top 20).

Pretty insane really.I had been thinking Messam is maybe the best loosie 6 or 8 in NZ right now. Stats do back that up somewhat.

Super Sub · May 3, 2011

Larksea said:
yeah I was going to point out that Toeava is surounded by all blacks at the blues, smith isn't.

Toeava's a very good player but IMO Smith is in better form overall for this season though it is close this last game really tipped the scales in Smiths favour. Toeava does have an advantage at the blues in playing outside the likes of Brett, McAlister & Payne - the latter two in particular are in pretty awesome form.

One of the more impressive parts of Toeava's game this season has been his combination with Ranger. Toeava kinda dances with the defence, draws defenders and sets ranger free and rangers hard straight running really complements Toeava's deceptive swerve and ability to get the defence standing on their heals.

I don't think it really matters. When Toeava was playing 2nd 5 and fullback for the Blues in 09, there were All Blacks all around him but they all performed well below par that year, and that didn't really change Toeava's form, he still tore a hole through the competition and was probably the best attacker that year, and that was all behind a pack that was constantly going backwards. He definitely had the best attacking statistics to back that up.

woodward · May 3, 2011

Jabby said:
I wont reply again after this as you dont seem to read what i say, I said I think they will take Toeava...pretty simple, there was no need to go on your rant to prove a point I agreed with

I think the stats and you opinion under sell smith slightly though, I dare anyone to say its not easier to look good surrounded by all blacks, how many in the blues backline compared with the highlanders? and smith has looked fantastic all season not just the last couple of games so to say any call to take him is based on that is once again under selling.

My "rant" seemed to spark a bit of discussion with the other posters so maybe you should chill. You were saying Smith was ahead on form but that he probably wouldn't be selected based on experience, I'm saying Smith is behind on form and definitely wont be selected ahead of Toeava, form or experience aside the cartel rate him a better player. There is a fair bit of variation in the stats but Toeava has been the best player for the competition leading team.
The Highlanders run the ball more than the Blues who kick alot so I don't think you can say The Blues' style is skewing the stats in favour of Toeava who seems to kick or feed Rocokoco more often than run it himself.

Darwin · May 3, 2011

woodward said:
My "rant" seemed to spark a bit of discussion with the other posters so maybe you should chill. You were saying Smith was ahead on form but that he probably wouldn't be selected based on experience, I'm saying Smith is behind on form and definitely wont be selected ahead of Toeava, form or experience aside the cartel rate him a better player. There is a fair bit of variation in the stats but Toeava has been the best player for the competition leading team.
The Highlanders run the ball more than the Blues who kick alot so I don't think you can say The Blues' style is skewing the stats in favour of Toeava who seems to kick or feed Rocokoco more often than run it himself.

All the stats I've seen have showed that Toeava has made more runs than Ben Smith (89 runs - 68 runs, 86 runs - 72 runs). Toeava kicks more than Ben Smith with 30 kicks / 204 handles (15%) compared to 16 kicks / 168 handles (10%), but certainly doesn't pass as much as Smith (92 passes / 204 handles [45%] compared to 88 passes / 168 handles [52%])*.

I terms of who is in the best form, I would have given Toeava the edge over Smith leading up to the last couple of games, but Toeava has been pretty average over the last couple of games, while Smith was clearly superior to him head-to-head in the last game. Because of this I'd call them even in terms of who has have the best season so far.

* all stats courtesy of http://www.ruggastats.com/. The site has some really great in depth game stats, but only publishes the stats for each individual game rather than collated player stats.

Larksea · May 3, 2011

Stats kinda suggest that Toeava has had a lot more ball than Smith but overall maybe Smith has used the ball he's had more effectively

Super Sub · May 3, 2011

Maybe but then Toeava does a lot more crash balls and you don't really get that many metres out of those.

TNT88 · May 3, 2011

From Fox Sports:

*I couldn't find possession statistics for each game, so i can't weight the attack stats based on that. If we could weight the stats, i'm sure it would be very close.

I would prefer Ben Smith in my team, but for the All Blacks in a World Cup year, i think the only wise choice (for now) is Toeava. The stats also back him.

Next year i'm sure they will be both looking at starting spots, especially seeing as plenty of their outside backs are moving on. It's amazing NZ have so many young guys like this just waiting in the ranks for the next generation.

TheRunningMan

Academy Player

May 3, 2011

#34

Toeava hands down... Smith is standing out in a Highlanders team which is the surprise packet of Super Rugby but the man from Auckland has been the No 1 fulback amongst NZ conference teams.. maybe even overall!

W

woodward

Academy Player

May 4, 2011

#35

damn, I wouldn't be surprised if his downturn in form was a result of this recurring injury

M

MrChairman

Academy Player

May 4, 2011

#36

It's possible. We saw the same thing near the end of last years season where his impact declined as the pain got to him. I also don't remember him going down/off the field during the game so i wouldnt be surprised if he complained about some pain then the scans came back in revealing it